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Drone superpower Ukraine can teach Europe how to defend itself

Lesia Orobets — Fri, 30 Jan 2026 22:54:12 +0000

Ever since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House just over a year ago, it has become increasingly apparent that the world is now entering a new and unpredictable era of international relations. For Europe, this has meant coming to terms with the idea that continued US military support can no longer be taken for granted. After decades of outsourcing their security to the Americans, Europeans must once again learn to defend themselves.

Throughout the past twelve months, there has been much talk in European capitals of wake-up calls but relatively little actual action. While many European countries have vowed to dramatically increase defense spending, the debate over a new European security architecture still lacks a sense of urgency and remains hampered by competing national interests.

One of the few things that a majority of European policymakers appear to agree on is the importance of Ukraine in the continent’s emerging security strategy. This recognition of Ukraine’s role underlines the scale of the changes that have taken place over the past four years.

When Russia’s full-scale invasion first began in February 2022, Ukraine was heavily reliant on Western military aid as the country fought for survival. Since those early days, the Ukrainian army has expanded dramatically and evolved into the largest and most experienced fighting force in Europe. As a result of this transformation, a country that many had previously dismissed as a minor military player is now widely regarded as indispensable for the future defense of Europe.

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Ukraine’s potential to shape Europe’s new security architecture is most immediately obvious in the field of drone warfare. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is widely acknowledged as the world’s first full-scale drone war, with huge quantities of drones dominating the battlefield and operating deep inside enemy territory. Over the past four years, Ukraine has established itself as a “drone superpower” with an annual output of around four million drones, Bloomberg reported in November 2025.

Western security experts are no doubt acutely aware that alongside Ukraine, the two other nations currently driving the international development of drone warfare are Russia and China. This underlines Kyiv’s strategic importance as the democratic world adjusts to the challenges posed by an emerging alliance of authoritarian powers centered on Moscow and Beijing.

A growing number of US and EU defense companies have already sought to establish a presence in Ukraine in order to capitalize on the country’s technological expertize. This approach is understandable but may be shortsighted. In reality, Ukraine’s value extends far beyond access to existing military drone technologies.

Since 2022, Ukrainian drone developers and military units specializing in unmanned operations have learned to solve problems and adapt to new battlefield realities at lightning speed. Out of necessity, they have become accustomed to upgrading individual drone models and counter-drone systems within ever-decreasing innovation cycles that can now be measured in weeks.

Ukrainian forces have pioneered the use of combat drones on the front lines of the war. The country has also led the way at sea, with Ukrainian naval drones sinking multiple Russian warships and forcing Putin to withdraw the bulk of his remaining fleet from occupied Crimea to the relative safety of Russia itself. Meanwhile, long-range Ukrainian drones now routinely strike targets deep inside Russia. This Ukrainian success can serve as the foundation for a wider European security strategy as the world moves into a new era of drone-based warfare.

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Ukraine’s most immediate contribution to European security is likely to be in terms of helping countries defend against the mounting threat posed by Russian drones. The Kremlin’s current harassing activities around airports and other strategic sites across Europe are essentially an annoyance, but even such small-scale drone operations have exposed an alarming lack of readiness. At present, it seems safe to say that the continent as a whole is utterly unprepared for the kind of large-scale Russian drone attacks that have become a routine feature of the war in Ukraine.

Europe has responded to escalating Russian drone activity by developing plans to establish a “drone wall” along the continent’s exposed eastern flank. So far, however, this initiative remains somewhat fragmented with no unified concept or central coordination. While a collective response could eventually prove effective, pursuing this goal without learning from Ukraine’s unique experience makes little sense. Only Kyiv has the data and insights necessary to build layered defensive networks capable of combating waves of Russian drones.

In recent months, a growing number of European countries have taken the practical step of seeking to tap into Ukraine’s drone warfare prowess by working with Ukrainian trainers or establishing joint production initiatives. “Ukraine’s experience is the most relevant in Europe right now. Our specialists and technologies can become a key element of the future European drone wall, a large-scale project that will ensure safety in the skies,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented in September 2025.

In addition to drone tactics and technologies, Ukraine can also offer its European partners an unrivaled environment for drone operator training and weapons development. The whole of Ukraine is now a vast drone warfare laboratory where novel threats are identified and addressed on a daily basis. As a result, new drone models and upgraded designs can move from the drawing board to the battlefield at a pace that is unheard of in peacetime Europe.

Drone warfare is just one of the many areas where Europe can learn from Ukraine. As European leaders explore new security strategies in a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment, it should be abundantly clear that Kyiv has a crucial role to play. No other European country has such a battle-hardened army or intimate knowledge of modern warfare. In an increasingly unpredictable world, that makes Ukraine a vital partner.

Lesia Orobets is the founder of the Price of Freedom air defense initiative and a former member of the Ukrainian parliament.

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There are currently concerns that Ukraine’s fast‑growing defense tech sector risks inheriting longstanding governance problems including opaque procedures, slow decision‑making, and uneven enforcement. Recent corruption scandals in Kyiv have already damaged trust, creating what some businesses have described as “negative expectations.”

From the Ukrainian government’s side, there is recognition that institutions are still adapting, with many of the available economic security tools still fragmented or not yet fully operational. This represents an opportunity for Ukraine if the country is able to build governance structures tailored to strategic sectors rather than retrofitting existing and outdated bureaucratic models. Creating a new generation of transparent institutions to address defense sector exports, investment screening, and procurement could become a competitive advantage for Ukraine if designed with private sector input from the outset.

Export licensing is one of the most acute potential bottlenecks. Ukraine’s defense tech businesses currently face a process requiring excessive approvals from multiple institutions, with little accountability or predictability. There is also a perception of unequal treatment, undermining confidence in the system. Ukrainian officials, meanwhile, tend to stress the necessity of strict controls to prevent leakage of sensitive technologies.

A risk‑based and tiered export control regime could address these concerns. By clearly defining a narrow list of highly sensitive technologies requiring strict oversight, the Ukrainian authorities could create faster and more predictable export pathways for less sensitive defense and dual‑use products. This would support economic growth while preserving core security interests.

Wartime currency controls and capital movement restrictions severely limit the ability of Ukrainian defense sector companies to expand internationally. Multiple investors have noted the paradox of profitable Ukrainian firms being unable to deploy their own capital abroad, forcing them to raise funds outside the country simply to operate globally.

From the perspective of Ukrainian policymakers, currency restrictions are viewed as necessary to preserve macro‑financial stability and to prevent capital flight. Targeted exemptions for vetted defense and dual‑use companies, particularly those pursuing foreign acquisitions or joint ventures aligned with national priorities, could unlock growth without undermining financial stability. Such a mechanism would signal trust in compliant firms and reward transparency.

Another key issue is intellectual property (IP). Standard IP processes are too slow for wartime innovation cycles. In the dynamic current environment, Ukrainian companies rely on trade secrets and know‑how rather than formal patents, but this increases risks when partnering internationally.

Ukrainian officials acknowledge the importance of innovation but have so far only been able to offer limited concrete solutions. Accelerated IP pathways for defense and dual‑use technologies, combined with support for joint research and development frameworks with trusted foreign partners, could help Ukrainian firms secure protection in allied jurisdictions while strengthening international integration.

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There is a degree of uncertainty in Ukraine’s expanding defense tech sector that can be seen in inconsistent terminology, unclear boundaries, and undefined red lines. A shared vocabulary and published strategic framework, co‑developed by the public and private sectors, could help reduce this uncertainty.

Different priorities lead to diverging visions. Defense tech industry executives and investors tend to view the issue of economic security primarily through the lens of scalability, competitiveness, and speed. Their key assumptions include the notion that innovation thrives in predictable, transparent environments.

Many also argue that Ukraine’s combat‑tested technologies represent a unique global opportunity, while cautioning that excessive controls risk pushing talent, capital, and IP abroad. With this in mind, industry representatives and investors generally support targeted security measures but fear blanket restrictions that treat all technologies and companies as equally sensitive.

Ukrainian officials tend to frame economic security primarily as a defensive necessity. They warn that adversaries actively use markets, investment, and technology transfer as weapons. Many are also concerned that under‑regulation could result in irreversible strategic losses. Naturally, their perspective prioritizes caution, monitoring, and alignment with allied security frameworks, even at the cost of slower growth.

The central tension here is time-based and risk‑based. Businesses operate on market timelines and accept calculated risk, while governments operate on security timelines and seek to minimize worst‑case scenarios. Without structured dialogue, these differences manifest as mistrust rather than complementary roles.

If managed effectively, wartime Ukraine’s approach to economic security in the defense tech and dual-use sectors could become a model for the country’s broader postwar reconstruction. Ukraine has the opportunity to redesign institutions in a strategic sector that already commands global attention. Success may depend on whether government policy is seen by businesses as a partnership or as an obstacle.

Constructive cooperation grounded in transparency, risk‑based policy, and continuous dialogue can transform economic security from a constraint into a catalyst for Ukraine’s long‑term strength and sovereignty, providing significant security benefits for allies and partners along the way. This is a realistic objective. After all, industry, investors, and government all ultimately seek the common goal of a resilient, innovative Ukrainian economy integrated with democratic allies and protected from adversarial exploitation.

Bridging the gap between perspectives is less a matter of ideology than of process, trust, and execution. Ukraine is currently in a period of transition that is marked by many significant challenges but no irreconcilable obstacles. Industry and investors are ready to scale globally while the government is racing to build safeguards against unprecedented threats. The task now is to synchronize these efforts.

Eric K. Hontz is director of the Accountable Investment Practice Area at the Center for International Private Enterprise.

At the same time, many have expressed frustration over the continued media emphasis on Ukrainian resilience amid a mounting humanitarian crisis that has left much of the country in desperate need of help. “Resilience doesn’t mean immunity. Ukraine cannot withstand everything indefinitely,” wrote Ukrainian commentator Iryna Voichuk on January 16. “Framing this as only a story of strength risks dulling the urgency of what’s happening.”

Others have echoed this sentiment, including some of Ukraine’s most prominent international supporters. “Mythologizing endurance is a quiet form of abandonment. Resilience does not mean invulnerability,” cautioned R.T. Weatherman Foundation president Meaghan Mobbs in a recent post. “When we speak as if Ukrainians can simply ‘take it,’ we absolve ourselves of responsibility.”

With the present arctic weather conditions expected to continue well into February, the situation in Ukraine is critical. In the high-rise apartment blocks that dominate Ukraine’s cities, many less mobile residents have already been housebound for weeks and will likely remain trapped in frigid darkness throughout the coming month. The outlook is particularly grave for the elderly, those with young families, and people in need of medical care. In other words, Russia’s present bombing strategy appears to have been specifically tailored to target the most vulnerable members of Ukrainian society.

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As the potential for large-scale loss of life becomes increasingly apparent, international audiences are waking up to the true extent of Russia’s criminal intentions. Wall Street Journal chief foreign affairs correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov recently referred to Russia’s winter bombing campaign as “Putin’s genocidal effort to make Kyiv unlivable.” It is easy to see why such terms are now being employed. The 1948 UN Genocide Convention identifies “deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part,” as one of five recognized acts of genocide. At the very least, Russia’s current actions closely resemble this definition.

The current winter bombing campaign reflects a broader trend of mounting Russian attacks against Ukraine’s civilian population. According to UN data, 2025 was the deadliest year of the war for Ukrainian civilians since 2022, with more than 2,500 people killed and over twelve thousand injured. This was 31 percent higher than the figure for the previous year and 70 percent more than in 2023. Many of these deaths were due to a spike in Russian missile and drone strikes on civilian targets including residential buildings, hospitals, and a children’s playground.

Russia also stands accused of conducting a systematic campaign of drone strikes targeting members of the public in the front line regions of southern Ukraine. These attacks have been dubbed a “human safari” by terrified locals. They involve the use of drones with video camera guidance systems to hunt individual victims, underlining the deliberate nature of the killings. An October 2025 United Nations investigation into this drone terror found that Russia was guilty of “systematically coordinated actions designed to drive Ukrainians out of their homes,” and concluded that the Kremlin’s actions in southern Ukraine qualified as the crimes against humanity of murder and of forcible transfer of civilians.

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Putin is dramatically escalating attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population because he cannot win the war on the battlefield. When he first launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin was expecting a quick and complete victory. Instead, his army has become bogged down in a brutal war of attrition that will soon enter a fifth year.

Despite pouring vast resources into the invasion and placing his entire country on a war footing, the Kremlin dictator has been unable to secure a decisive breakthrough. Many in Moscow had hoped the return of Donald Trump to the White House would transform the military situation, but even a dramatic decline in US aid for Ukraine over the past year has failed to turn the tide in Russia’s favor. Putin’s army captured less than one percent of Ukrainian territory during 2025, while suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties. At the present glacial pace, it would take Russia decades and millions of men to fully subjugate Ukraine.

In his official statements, Putin continues to project confidence and boast of his invading army’s success. However, with so few genuine victories to toast, this has often meant inventing imaginary advances. Putin’s habit of exaggerating Russian gains came back to haunt him in late 2025 when he repeatedly claimed to have captured the Ukrainian city of Kupyansk, only for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to personally visit the city and record a selfie video exposing the Russian ruler’s lies. This embarrassing episode underlined the growing credibility gap between Putin’s bold talk of inevitable Russian victory and the far more sobering battlefield reality of minimal Russian gains and disastrous losses.

With no obvious route to military victory, Putin is now openly embracing a strategy of terror tactics against Ukraine’s civilian population. He hopes that by weaponizing winter and putting millions of lives at risk, he can finally break Ukrainian resistance and force Kyiv to capitulate. Europe has not witnessed criminality on such a grand and terrible scale since the days of Hitler and Stalin.

So far, the international response to Russia’s winter bombing campaign has been utterly inadequate. While many of Kyiv’s partners have rushed to provide humanitarian aid, no additional costs whatsoever have been imposed on the Kremlin. Instead, it is Ukraine and not Russia that is reportedly being asked to make concessions. Unless this changes, the normalization of Russian war crimes will continue and Putin’s sense of impunity will become even more deeply entrenched. It will then only be a matter of time before other civilian populations experience the horrors currently taking place in Ukraine.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

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Attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure have been a routine feature of the war ever since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. According to Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal, every single energy-generating facility in the country has been bombed. “There is not a single power plant in Ukraine that has not been hit by the enemy since the beginning of the war,” he commented last week. “Thousands of megawatts of generation capacity have been knocked out. Nobody else in the world has ever faced a challenge like this.”

Russia’s current aerial offensive began to escalate noticeably during the final months of 2025 ahead of the cold season. As temperatures plummeted in early January, there was a further intensification of attacks on Ukraine’s power and heating infrastructure, with large numbers of drones and missiles concentrated on specific cities to overwhelm air defenses. The timing of Russia’s bombing campaign leaves no room for reasonable doubt; this was a premeditated attempt to target the Ukrainian population by weaponizing the winter weather.

The Kremlin’s goal is easy enough to decipher. By making Ukrainian cities unlivable and threatening to freeze millions of civilians, Moscow aims to break Ukraine’s resistance and force the Kyiv authorities to accept peace on Russian terms. In other words, the present bombing offensive is Putin’s response to US President Donald Trump’s peace efforts. Rather than agree to a ceasefire or offer concessions, Putin uses terror as a negotiating tool to secure Ukraine’s surrender.

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The targeting of Ukrainian civilians is not limited to attacks on critical infrastructure. According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, 2025 was the deadliest year of the invasion for Ukrainian civilians since 2022. In a report released in early January, United Nations officials confirmed that more than 2500 Ukrainian civilians were killed in 2025. This was 31 percent higher than the figure for the previous year and 70 percent more than in 2023. A separate assessment by European governments reached similar conclusions and found that the scale of Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians increased whenever the Trump administration attempted to advance peace negotiations.

The rising civilian death toll in Ukraine is largely due to increased Russian bombing of Ukrainian cities. Moscow’s mounting air offensive owed much to a spike in domestic drone production, which has made it possible to launch hundreds of drones at Ukraine in a single night. Russia has also been accused of conducting a large-scale campaign of individual drone strikes against civilians in southern Ukraine that terrified locals have branded a “human safari.” UN investigators reported in October 2025 that Russia’s targeted drone strikes on civilians were a crime against humanity.

Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians have increased amid mounting frustration in Moscow over the slow pace of the invasion. Despite holding the battlefield initiative throughout 2025, Putin’s army failed to achieve any significant breakthroughs and gained less than one percent of Ukrainian territory while suffering heavy losses. With little immediate prospect of military success, Putin seems to have decided that his best chance of victory lies in terrorizing the civilian population.

So far, Russia’s terror tactics do not appear to be working. A nationwide poll conducted in mid-January by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that a majority of Ukrainians continue to reject the Kremlin’s territorial demands in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, more than two-thirds of Ukrainians do not believe the present round of US-led negotiations will result in a lasting peace. Instead, most Ukrainians remain convinced that Russia aims to continue the war.

Today’s arctic conditions will eventually give way to milder weather, but the damage done to Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure in recent weeks will take months to repair. Nor is there any reason to believe that Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians will abate. On the contrary, the Kremlin is likely to escalate further in a bid to demoralize, destabilize, and depopulate the country. By seeking to freeze millions of Ukrainians, Putin has underlined his readiness to target civilians as he seeks to impose an imperialistic vision of peace through submission.

Yuliya Kazdobina is a senior fellow at the “Ukrainian Prism” nongovernmental analytical center.

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Ukraine’s arsenal of long-range weapons has evolved significantly since 2022. Over the past four years, the country has managed to develop a variety of strike drones with the capacity to reach targets located well over a thousand kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Ukraine also now boasts an expanding selection of domestically produced cruise missiles. This enhanced long-range firepower has made it possible for Ukraine to conduct an escalating bombing campaign inside Russia that has already changed the geography of the war.

Since summer 2025, long-range Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory have reached record highs. Ukraine has struck dozens of military facilities and defense industry enterprises, while also paying special attention to the oil and gas infrastructure that fuels the Russian war economy. Ukraine has hit refineries, pipelines, oil rigs, ports, and a number of tankers belonging to the Kremlin’s so-called shadow fleet. These strikes have complicated the logistics of the invasion while contributing to a significant decline in Russia’s energy export revenues.

In addition to hampering the Kremlin war machine and causing economic damage, Ukraine’s mounting campaign of long-range strikes has also had a major psychological impact that is helping to bring home the reality of the war to the Russian public. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Kremlin has worked hard to shield ordinary Russians and contain the conflict within the borders of Ukraine. However, with air raid sirens becoming an increasingly routine feature of daily life in Russian towns and cities, the Putin regime is no longer able to control the narrative.

A recent survey conducted by Russia’s only remaining independent pollster, the Levada Center, has highlighted the impact Ukrainian strikes are having on Russian public sentiment. Asked to name the most notable event of the past year, 28 percent of respondents cited Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian cities and industrial facilities, making this the third most popular answer. Clearly, Ukraine’s long-range bombing campaign has succeeded in breaking through the Kremlin propaganda bubble and has made a strong impression on the Russian population.

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For Ukraine’s partners, the objective now should be to boost Ukraine’s long-range capabilities to the maximum in order to equip the country with the kind of strike power that can deter Russia. Numerous Western leaders have shied away from providing Kyiv with long-range missiles from their own arsenals due to escalation fears. The solution is simple: Western partners should focus their efforts on helping Ukraine produce sufficient quantities of drones and missiles domestically.

Ukrainian officials are well aware that the ability to hit targets across the Russian Federation may be their country’s most effective security guarantee against further Kremlin aggression. They are now appealing to Kyiv’s international partners for increased support as they seek to exploit the country’s considerable spare defense industry production capacity and crank up output.

“The modern arms race is not about nukes. It is about millions of cheap drones. Those who can scale up production quicker will secure peace,” commented Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha in late 2025. “This requires quick and sufficient funding for Ukraine’s defense industry, which is now the greatest source of defense innovation in the world. We can produce up to twenty million drones next year if we get sufficient funding.”

Throughout the past year of faltering US-led peace efforts, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly demonstrated that he has no intention of ending the invasion. As long as the war is being fought predominantly inside Ukraine, he is unlikely to change his position, regardless of Russian combat losses. However, if Ukrainian drone and missile strikes inside Russia continue to expand during 2026, the economic and social impact may become too serious to ignore. This could force Putin to abandon his stalling tactics and finally enter into genuine negotiations. It would also oblige him to think carefully before restarting his invasion in the years ahead.

Serhii Kuzan is chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center (USCC). He formerly served as an adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (2022-2023) and as an advisor to the Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (2014).

Ukraine’s enhanced fortifications are increasing the cost of Putin’s invasion

David Kirichenko — Thu, 15 Jan 2026 22:01:39 +0000

Russian forces continued to gradually advance in Ukraine during 2025, but suffered huge losses in exchange for minimal gains. This unfavorable ratio reflects the increasing effectiveness of Ukraine’s defensive lines, which now feature a combination of layered fortifications backed by deadly drone coverage. Together, these elements have turned much of the front line into a controlled kill zone that makes large-scale offensive operations extremely challenging while dramatically raising the cost of each new assault.

As Ukraine focuses on preventing further Russian advances and solidifying the front lines of the war, Kyiv has invested consideration resources in a major upgrade of the country’s defenses. This has resulted in what Britain’s The Economist recently described as a “massive fortification system” up to two hundred meters in depth covering much of the Ukrainian battlefield. “Ukraine now has the fortress belt it wishes it had in 2022,” the publication reported in early January.

Physical obstacles play an important role in this approach. Anti-tank ditches, razor wire, and concrete obstacles are layered to slow Russian advances. Defensive lines are often spaced within mortar range of one another, allowing Ukrainian units to trade space for time and counterattack against exposed enemy assault groups before they have had an opportunity to consolidate. The emphasis is on attrition and disruption rather than rigid territorial defense.

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Ukraine’s defensive strategy goes far beyond a reliance on traditional static barriers. Over the past year, there has also been a growing emphasis on dispersed, concealed, and flexible defensive networks. These small-scale fortified positions are often located underground or embedded in tree lines at strategic locations, and are supported by remote fires and decoys. Each individual node in these networks is designed to shape enemy movement rather than stop it outright, channeling attackers into deliberately prepared kill pockets without exposing defenders. By creating choke points for Russian troops, Ukraine aims to maximize Kremlin casualties and capitalize on its in-built advantages as the defending party in a war of attrition.

There are growing signs that this approach is working. Ukraine’s top military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi commented recently that the current strategy has proved particularly effective on the Pokrovsk front, which has witnessed some of the heaviest fighting of the entire war over the past year. According to Syrskyi, “timely and high-quality fortifications and engineering obstacles” enabled Ukrainian forces to inflict maximum losses on Russian units close to Pokrovsk and disrupt their plans, even when facing numerical superiority.

Where Ukrainian defenses have failed, the reasons are instructive. In areas such as Toretsk and parts of the Kharkiv front, troop rotations occurred without sufficient time or equipment to construct proper fortifications, leading to Russian gains. Constant Russian drone surveillance made the use of heavy engineering machinery dangerous, leaving units unprepared when assaults followed. These cases serve as confirmation that fortifications are not optional enhancements but foundational to battlefield survival under drone saturated conditions.

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Drones are at the heart of Ukraine’s defensive strategy, serving as a ubiquitous presence over kill zones and preventing localized Russian advances from consolidating into more substantial breakthroughs. Meanwhile, in some sectors of the front such as Pokrovsk, ground robotic systems are now being used to deliver the vast majority of supplies to troops. With this in mind, Ukrainian commanders argue that all future defensive lines should be optimized for both aerial and ground drones.

These technological advances do not eliminate the need for manpower. Even the most sophisticated fortifications require soldiers to react to emerging threats. When Russian units manage to infiltrate defensive lines or push into urban areas, infantry forces remain essential in order to clear and secure ground. While Ukraine’s improved fortifications are an encouraging development for the war-weary nation, no physical barrier can realistically stop Russia unless it is supported by sufficient quantities of well-trained troops.

Strengthening Ukraine’s fortifications and addressing manpower shortages will be among the top priorities for incoming Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who took up his post this week. Fedorov made his name in government as Minister of Digital Transformation. Since 2022, he has been one of the driving forces behind Ukraine’s rapidly expanding drone warfare capabilities.

Fedorov’s extensive defense tech background, along with his reputation as a modernizer who has countered institutional corruption through the digitalization of state services, has led to considerable optimism over his appointment. He is now faced with the twin challenges of improving Ukraine’s front line defenses while addressing the mobilization and desertion problems hindering the Ukrainian war effort. If he is able to make progress on these two fronts, Ukraine’s prospects for 2026 and beyond will begin to look a lot better.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

Teams of engineers are working around the clock to repair damaged facilities, fix power lines, and reconnect Ukrainian homes and businesses to the electricity grid. However, repeated Russian attacks are making it increasingly difficult to patch up battered equipment and find the necessary replacement component parts.

The bombing campaign appears to have been timed to coincide with the coldest period in over a year, with temperatures plummeting to minus fifteen Celsius (five degrees Fahrenheit) for extended periods of time. “ They deliberately waited for freezing weather to make things worse for our people. This is cynical Russian terror specifically against civilians,” stated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

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This is not the first time Russian President Vladimir Putin has attempted to weaponize winter in his war against Ukraine. Russia launched a major air offensive against Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure in October 2022, establishing a pattern that would be repeated each year as the cold season approached. While this tactic is not new, the present destruction of the Ukrainian power grid is widely recognized as the most severe of the entire war.

In Kyiv and other cities, the Ukrainian authorities have established so-called Points of Invincibility in heavily populated areas featuring heating and internet access along with electricity sources that can be used to charge up personal devices and power banks. Visitors can also expect hot drinks and a warm welcome.

Throughout Ukraine the buzz of generators has become the background noise of the winter season. Many Ukrainians have installed backup power sources in their homes, which are typically able to provide electricity for a limited period of time. Portable gas stoves are also a common feature as people adapt and improvise in the extreme conditions caused by Russia’s bombardment.

With millions of Ukrainian civilians at risk of being trapped in freezing darkness for days at a time, the potential for a humanitarian catastrophe is obvious. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko has already urged residents of the Ukrainian capital to temporarily leave the city if they are able to and move to less affected areas where power and heating are more readily available. With the present cold snap set to last for at least another week and further Russian attacks widely expected, fears are now mounting over a possible winter exodus to neighboring EU countries.

That may be exactly what Putin has in mind. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian civilians in a bid to break Ukraine’s resistance and depopulate large parts of the country. In addition to attacks on energy, heating, and other critical infrastructure, Russia has also launched large-scale drone strike campaigns designed to make entire towns and cities unlivable. A recent United Nations probe into Russia’s campaign of drone attacks throughout southern Ukraine’s front line regions concluded that Moscow’s actions amounted to the crimes against humanity of “murder and forcible transfer of population.”

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As Russia attempts to freeze Ukrainians into submission, Kyiv desperately needs a wide range of international support. This includes alternative energy supplies to replace domestic gas production damaged in Russia’s attacks, along with spare parts to mend the country’s power stations and associated infrastructure.

Ukraine also urgently requires additional air defense systems and interceptor missiles. At present, Ukraine’s existing air defenses are struggling to cope with the dramatically increased intensity of Russia’s aerial attacks, which now routinely feature hundreds of drones along with dozens of cruise and ballistic missiles.

Most of all, Ukraine needs to be able to strike back. However much Ukraine’s network of air defenses improves, the sheer scale of the Russian bombardment means that a percentage of missiles and drones will inevitably reach their targets. The only truly effective defense is deterrence. In other words, Russia’s attacks will continue until Putin is restrained by the knowledge that Ukraine has the capacity to reply in kind.

The next few weeks will be among the most challenging of the war for Ukraine’s civilian population that will test the country’s famed resilience to the limit. “I think the Russians want to break us. They want to make Ukrainians angry and unhappy. They think this will make us go out on the streets and protest but that won’t happen,” Kyiv resident Valentina Verteletska told Britain’s Guardian newspaper. “This makes us tougher and more determined. War doesn’t make people bad or good but it amplifies who you are. It allows people to show who they are inside and we have seen a lot of people volunteering to help their neighbors.”

Many believe Russia’s wintertime bombardment of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure now represents Putin’s best chance to achieve some kind of breakthrough at a time when his army is struggling to advance on the battlefield. Russia gained less than one percent of Ukrainian territory in 2025 despite suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties, and is still fighting over villages located within walking distance of the front lines at the start of the invasion in February 2022.

Despite this lack of progress, Putin remains committed to his original invasion objective of extinguishing Ukrainian independence and forcing the country permanently back into the Kremlin orbit. He clearly has no qualms about targeting millions of Ukrainian civilians in pursuit of this criminal goal. “You can see with your own eyes what is going on,” commented Kyiv building manager Oleksandr Matienko. “They are trying to kill us. They can’t win any other way. So they are willing to do anything to destroy Ukraine.”

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Over the past year, Russian attacks on Ukraine’s agricultural sector have escalated alarmingly. According to research conducted by the University of Strasbourg, the University of Maryland, and NASA’s Harvest program, the number of farmland fires identified in Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Kherson region during 2025 rose by 87.5 percent.

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The Kherson farming community’s wartime experience is mirrored throughout Ukraine, particularly in areas close to the front lines of the invasion. By attacking agricultural infrastructure, Russia seeks to undermine Ukraine’s food security, just as it targets the country’s energy infrastructure to deprive Ukraine’s civilian population of access to electricity and heating.

The implications of Russia’s war on Ukrainian farmers are international in scope. Known historically as the breadbasket of Europe, Ukraine is home to around one quarter of the world’s black soil, the most fertile farmland on the planet. This makes Ukraine a potential agricultural superpower and a key contributor to global food security. Ukrainian farmers are among the leading exporters of foodstuffs to the European Union, with Ukrainian produce also playing a prominent role in aid programs to counter hunger throughout the developing world.

Russia’s invasion has had a devastating impact on Ukrainian agricultural output. In addition to mined fields, burned crops, and bombed facilities, large numbers of Ukrainian farms are currently in Kremlin-controlled regions, leading to seized harvests.

Kherson region farmers received a further blow in summer 2023 when a suspected Russian sabotage operation destroyed the Kakhovka Dam in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine. This act of ecocide undermined one of Europe’s largest irrigation systems, leaving hundreds of thousands of hectares without access to water. The impact on the environment was catastrophic, leading to drought conditions, failed crops, and the loss of farmland.

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Despite the unprecedented challenges posed by Russia’s ongoing invasion, Kherson’s farmers continue to work. In 2025, they managed to harvest a remarkable quantity of the watermelons that serve as the region’s unofficial calling card. Other key Kherson crops include wheat and potatoes.

Since 2022, domestic and international support programs have proved instrumental in bolstering the resilience of the Kherson agricultural industry. Initiatives in recent years have included subsidies for farmers and technical assistance focused on areas such as irrigation, with the goal of helping farmers adapt to the new wartime realities.

Kherson agricultural businesses are also responding to the changing conditions. Due to water scarcity and rising temperatures, some farms have reduced planting areas and turned to cultivating crops that utilize soil moisture more efficiently. Research is also underway to develop additional drought-resistant crops better suited to the current environment.

Further international support for Ukrainian farmers will be critically important during 2026. Ukraine’s agricultural industry is one of the cornerstones of the national economy and a major exporter to global markets. By targeting farmers and their land, Russia aims to make Ukraine unlivable and break the country’s resistance. This strategy poses a significant threat to international food security and must be addressed.

Oleksandr Tolokonnikov is Deputy Head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration.

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The current emphasis on UGVs is part of a broader technological transformation taking place on the battlefields of Ukraine. This generational shift in military tech is redefining how modern wars are fought.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, homegrown innovation has played a critical role in Ukraine’s defense. Early in the war, Ukrainian troops deployed cheap commercial drones to conduct reconnaissance. These platforms were soon being adapted to carry explosives, dramatically expanding their combat role. By the second year of the war, Ukraine had developed a powerful domestic drone industry capable of producing millions of units per year while rapidly adapting to the ever-changing requirements of the battlefield.

A similar process has also been underway at sea, with Ukraine deploying domestically produced naval drones to sink or damage more than a dozen Russian warships. This has forced Putin to withdraw the remainder of the Black Sea Fleet from occupied Crimea to Russia itself. Recent successes have included the downing of Russian helicopters over the Black Sea using naval drones armed with missiles, and an audacious strike on a Russian submarine by an underwater Ukrainian drone.

By late 2023, drones were dominating the skies over the Ukrainian battlefield, making it extremely dangerous to use vehicles or armor close to the front lines. In response to this changing dynamic, Ukrainian forces began experimenting with wheeled and tracked land drones to handle logistical tasks such as the delivery of food and ammunition to front line positions and the evacuation of wounded troops.

Over the past year, Russia’s expanding use of fiber-optic drones and tactical focus on disrupting Ukrainian supply lines has further underlined the importance of UGVs. Fiber-optic drones have expanded the kill zone deep into the Ukrainian rear, complicating the task of resupplying combat units and leading to shortages that weaken Ukraine’s defenses. Robotic systems help counter this threat.

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Remote controlled land drones offer a range of practical advantages. They are more difficult to jam electronically than aerial drones, and are far harder to spot than trucks or cars. These benefits are making them increasingly indispensable for the Ukrainian military. In November 2025, the BBC reported that up to 90 percent of all supplies to Ukrainian front line positions around Pokrovsk were being delivered by UGVs.

In addition to logistical functions, the Ukrainian military is also pioneering the use of land drones in combat roles. It is easy to see why this is appealing. After all, Ukrainian commanders are being asked to defend a front line stretching more than one thousand kilometers with limited numbers of troops against a far larger and better equipped enemy.

Experts caution that while UGVs can serve as a key element of Ukraine’s defenses, they are not a realistic alternative to boots on the ground. Former Ukrainian commander in chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi has acknowledged that robotic systems are already making it possible to remove personnel from the front lines and reduce casualties, but stressed that current technology remains insufficient to replace humans at scale.

Despite the advances of the past four years, Ukraine’s expanding robot army remains incapable of carrying out many military functions that require infantry. When small groups of Russian troops infiltrate Ukrainian positions and push into urban areas, for example, soldiers are needed to clear and hold terrain. Advocates of drone warfare need to recognize these limitations when making the case for greater reliance on unmanned systems.

UGVs will likely prove vital for Ukraine in 2026, but they are not wonder weapons and cannot serve as a miracle cure for Kyiv’s manpower challenges. Instead, Ukraine’s robot army should be viewed as an important part of the country’s constantly evolving defenses that can help save lives while raising the cost of Russia’s invasion.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

The art of war is undergoing a technological revolution in Ukraine

Oleg Dunda — Wed, 24 Dec 2025 23:52:17 +0000

Ukraine is currently at the epicenter of radical changes taking place in the way modern wars are fought. However, much of the world is still busy preparing for the wars of yesterday. European armies are only combat-ready on paper, while the invincibility of the United States military is based largely on past victories.

The current state of affairs is far from unprecedented. In early 1940, Polish officers tried to warn their French counterparts about Nazi Germany’s new blitzkrieg tactics but were ignored. France surrendered soon after. There is still time to adapt to the transformations that are now underway, but the clock is ticking.

One of the key lessons from the war in Ukraine is the evolving role of soldiers. People are now the most expensive, vulnerable, and difficult resource to replace on the battlefield. Meanwhile, many of the core weapons systems that dominated military doctrines in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries are becoming less relevant. Tanks, artillery, and other traditional systems are simply too expensive and are unsuited to the challenges created by newer technologies.

Unmanned systems of all kinds have emerged since 2022 as a fundamental element of modern military doctrine. This is radically changing everything from the structure of armies to the role of the individual soldier. Remotely controlled equipment no longer needs a large crew to support it, while individual models are becoming more compact and maneuverable. As a result, the power of unmanned weapons systems is increasing exponentially, while production is expanding to industrial scale and becoming significantly cheaper.

More and more soldiers now serve as unmanned systems operators. Those who remain in more traditional roles perform tasks such as special operations, guard duties, or logistical functions. The war being waged by Ukraine has demonstrated that the modern battlefield features a kill zone up to 25 miles deep and spanning the entire front line. This zone is controlled by drones that destroy any infantry or equipment. Combat operations are increasingly conducted by drone operators located deep in the rear or in underground bunkers.

In these conditions of drone dominance over the battlefield, any attempts to stage major breakthroughs are doomed to failure. Instead of tank columns and artillery duels, offensive operations require maximum dispersal of forces and the greatest possible camouflage. The main task of troops is to gradually shift the kill zone deeper into the enemy’s rear.

Success depends upon the ability to rapidly produce large quantities of inexpensive combat drones and continually update their control systems. Initial tactics involving single drones and individual targets are already becoming a thing of a past. Instead, operators can now use artificial intelligence to control entire fleets featuring large numbers of drones deployed simultaneously. This approach allows a single soldier to manage kilometers of front line space rather than just a few hundred meters. The result is a reduction in the need for mass mobilization and an emphasis on the professionalism and technical skills of each operator manning the front.

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Combat operations now boil down to two main scenarios: Either the collapse of an enemy who is not prepared for the new intensity of combat, or a positional struggle in the style of World War I. In a protracted positional war, it is crucial to ensure control over the kill zone and maintain sufficient supplies while depriving the enemy of similar capabilities. The protection of logistics networks and the infliction of maximum damage on the enemy’s rear areas is of decisive importance.

First and foremost, this means cutting off ground supply routes. To protect logistics, armies must develop fleets of maneuverable transport drones that are not dependent on road quality and can navigate minefields. Meanwhile, to ensure the steady supply of ammunition and spare parts to underground storage points along the front lines, a mobile air defense system featuring interceptor drones is necessary.

At the strategic level, key targets are now weapons factories, logistics centers, and command posts, which are often hidden deep in the rear or located inside underground bunkers close to the front lines. Destroying these high-value targets requires guided missiles or other air strike capabilities. Military planners are therefore faced with the challenge of moving away from expensive manned aircraft toward reusable strategic drones.

Testing of fully-fledged unmanned aircraft is already underway. The transition toward unmanned aviation will open up the mass deployment of guided aerial bombs, which are significantly cheaper than missiles. In addition, strategic drones will themselves be able to act as “aircraft carriers” for kamikaze drones.

The same principles apply equally to the maritime theater of operations. Ukrainian Sea Baby naval drones have already proven themselves by destroying numerous warships from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and carrying out attacks on Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers.

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To ensure their future national security, states must focus on the mass production of unmanned systems and their components. China currently accounts for the lion’s share of component parts. This is a challenge for any country that seeks to play a role in global affairs. China must be deprived of the strategic advantages it enjoys due to its status as the leading producer of components for unmanned systems.

Many NATO generals appear to think that recent technological advances are making war cheaper and creating a more level military playing field. This is a mistake. In reality, any reduction in the cost of weapons is more than offset by the need for increased quantities.

It is also important to stress that unmanned technologies alone are not enough. Another key factor is an army’s access to reliable digital communications similar to Starlink. Without this capability, it is impossible to coordinate combat operations, collect data, and maintain connections between individual units and command structures. It is no coincidence that China is already investing billions to address this issue.

The transformation currently underway in the military sphere also increases the role of cyber warfare. Disruption to logistics, power outages, and communications breakdowns can all provide the enemy with the opportunity to advance. A hacked cyber system can expose vital defenses or dramatically reduce the possibility of recovery.

Looking ahead, technological innovation in the military must be recognized as a national priority when allocating defense budgets. This applies to everything from unmanned systems to the development of artificial intelligence.

The most important revolution must take place within the minds of today’s military generals. A comprehensive rethink of existing military doctrines is currently needed. Armies must be completely re-equipped. It is time for the top brass to acknowledge that they should either change or give way to a new generation of military strategists.

Ukraine’s experience since 2022 has confirmed that in order to be successful in modern warfare, armies should model themselves on technological giants like Amazon and SpaceX. They must embrace flexible thinking and be capable of competing in terms of implementing new innovations.

In an era of accelerated military change, all countries face a simple choice of adapting or accepting the inevitability of defeat. The winners will be those who embrace the lessons from the technological revolution currently underway on the battlefields of Ukraine.

Oleg Dunda is a member of the Ukrainian Parliament from the Servant of the People party.

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As the bombardment of Kharkiv intensifies, events taking place one hundred kilometers to the east are reshaping the city’s broader security outlook. In recent months, advancing Russian troops have attempted to reoccupy Kupiansk. This strategically important city came under Russian occupation during the initial phase of the full-scale invasion before being liberated during Ukraine’s successful September 2022 counteroffensive. Renewed Russian gains in this direction would further strain Ukraine’s defenses and expand the aerial threat looming over Kharkiv.

As the front line creeps closer to Kharkiv, the main threat remains air strikes. Russian attacks focus on civilian targets including energy infrastructure, apartment blocks, schools, hospitals, and shopping malls. The overall intention is clear: Russia aims to degrade municipal infrastructure, disrupt essential services, and make the city unlivable for its inhabitants.

One of the most shocking attacks in recent months took place on October 22, when Russia carried out a targeted drone strike on a Kharkiv kindergarten. On that occasion, images of firefighters carrying young children from the burning building made global headlines. However, the vast majority of attacks targeting the Kharkiv population do not attract the attention of international audiences.

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Alongside drones, Kharkiv residents must also now contend with extended periods of darkness. In early November, a major Russian bombardment caused the city’s energy supply system to collapse, leaving entire districts without electricity, heating, and light. Local residents have had to adapt to the realities of life without power while navigating the city in the winter gloom. For the Kharkiv population, this has meant returning to familiar blackout routines developed during earlier Russian winter bombing campaigns.

Despite these pressures, Kharkiv continues to function and maintain an air of normality. Everyday life in the city is in many ways defined by a culture of resilience that is both practical and disciplined, reflecting years of adaptation under fire.

Utilities crews repair power lines within hours of each new Russian attack. Municipal workers immediately clear away debris from air strikes and make sure the city remains tidy, even in the most extreme of circumstances. Teachers hold classes in specially constructed underground schools or metro stations. Doctors treat patients behind boarded up windows. Each individual demonstration of resilience is a direct rejection of Russia’s efforts to depopulate Kharkiv.

In order to maintain this remarkable resilience, Kharkiv requires continued international support. Most of all, this means additional air defenses. Supporting Kharkiv is not just a matter of humanitarian assistance. It is a strategic investment in European security.

Today, Kharkiv serves as a vital bastion in eastern Ukraine. The city’s endurance makes it possible to reinforce Ukrainian front line units, bolster the country’s defenses, offer a safe haven to the region’s civilian population, and prevent the war from spreading further west. A secure Kharkiv means a stronger Ukraine and a safer Europe, but this will only be possible with help from the international community.

Maria Avdeeva is a Ukrainian security analyst. The views in this article are her own and are expressed in a personal capacity.

At the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s vibrant tech sector represented an important asset that the authorities in Kyiv were quick to mobilize. This tech prowess helped cement the country’s strategic focus on drones, which could be designed and produced domestically to compensate for a lack of more conventional weapons.

Since 2022, the number of Ukrainian companies developing drones has skyrocketed, while annual output has risen to millions of units. This has allowed Ukraine to establish a “drone wall” along the front lines of the conflict, making any buildup of enemy forces extremely challenging. Over the past year, around three-quarters of all Russian casualties have been as a result of Ukrainian drones.

At sea, Ukraine has used drones to sink multiple warships and break the Russian navy’s Black Sea blockade, forcing Putin to withdraw the bulk of his remaining fleet from Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s growing drone capabilities have also made it possible to bring Putin’s invasion home to Russia with an escalating campaign of deep strikes on military and industrial targets across the Russian Federation.

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Russia has responded to Kyiv’s groundbreaking use of drone warfare by studying Ukrainian tactics and technologies, while also dramatically expanding its own domestic drone manufacturing base. The Kremlin has been aided in this by allies including China and Iran, who have provided vital components along with the blueprints for key drone designs.

The Kremlin strategy has focused on mass producing a limited range of models for use on the battlefield and in the bombardment of Ukrainian cities. This methodical approach has paid dividends. By the end of 2024, it was already becoming clear that the drone war was turning in Russia’s favor. This trend has only intensified over the past year.

One of Russia’s most important innovations has been the widespread use of fiber-optic drones. These drones are controlled by a wire connected directly to the operator, making them immune to jamming technologies and extremely difficult to intercept.

Russian commanders first began using large quantities of fiber-optic drones during fighting in late 2024 to push Ukrainian troops out of Russia’s Kursk region. The drones proved highly effective at disrupting Ukrainian logistics by targeting supply vehicles. This was widely seen as a crucial factor behind the success of the operation.

Russia has now replicated and scaled up these tactics throughout southern and eastern Ukraine, creating a drone wall of its own while reaching deeper and deeper into Ukrainian-controlled territory. Fiber-optic drones are being used to ambush supply vehicles far behind the front lines, forcing Ukraine to become increasingly reliant on ground robotics to supply combat units and evacuate the wounded.

In addition to striking Ukrainian logistics, Russian drone forces are also prioritising attacks on their Ukrainian counterparts, forcing Ukrainian drone crews to pull further back from the line of contact to ensure safety. This distance gives Russian operators room to move their own teams forward, increasing their ability to dominate the battlefield.

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Russia’s Rubicon drone unit has emerged during 2025 as a prominent symbol of the Kremlin’s rapidly evolving and increasingly effective drone warfare strategy. Highly trained and well funded Rubicon teams are leading the campaign to cut Ukraine’s supply lines and widen the kill zone.

Crucially, Rubicon pilots pass their experience on to newcomers and provide extensive training that is helping to improve the effectiveness of other Russian army drone units. According to Ukrainian drone commander Yurii Fedorenko, Rubicon can rapidly scale up drone units using manpower and financial advantages that Ukraine cannot replicate.

In the drone war between Russia and Ukraine, the Kremlin is betting on mass and hoping that a combination of smart choices, specialised production, extensive training, and sheer numbers will eventually overwhelm Ukraine’s technological edge. In contrast, Kyiv continues to rely on a highly decentralised ecosystem of volunteer groups, startups, and military workshops producing a wide variety of different drone models. This diversity helps to drive innovation but also creates coordination challenges.

The current effectiveness of Russia’s drone units does not mean the drone war has shifted decisively in Moscow’s favor, but recent trends do expose a gap that Ukraine must urgently close. In order to counter Russia’s increasingly centralised and well-resourced drone formations, Kyiv needs to adopt key elements of the Rubicon model. This means scaling up training pipelines, sharing front line experience more systematically, and ensuring Ukrainian drone units have all the resources they need to hunt down Russian operators and regain the initiative.

Since 2022, the Russian military has been widely mocked for its primitive “human wave” tactics and generally poor performance in Ukraine. However, the progress made by Russia in drone warfare indicates an army that is fully capable of learning, adapting, and innovating. Moscow has not been able to achieve any major technological breakthroughs, but Russian military strategists have significantly strengthened their country’s position by concentrating on scale, training, and relentless battlefield experimentation.

This progress should be a major wake-up call for European leaders. Small numbers of suspected Russian drones are already causing chaos and disruption across Europe. The longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the more advanced Russia’s drone capabilities will become.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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Ukraine’s embrace of drone warfare since 2022 can provide Kyiv’s partners with a wide range of important insights. Following the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion almost four years ago, Ukraine has turned to relatively cheap drone technologies in order to offset Moscow’s often overwhelming advantages in conventional firepower and reduce the country’s dependence on Western weapons supplies. As a result, the number of Ukrainian drone producers has skyrocketed from a handful of companies to hundreds, while overall drone output has shot up to millions of units per year.

Ukraine’s vibrant prewar tech sector has proved a major asset, serving as fertile ground for the dynamic expansion of the country’s defense sector. Meanwhile, Ukrainian initiatives like the government-backed Brave1 defense tech cluster have helped to empower innovators and optimize cooperation between the army, the state, and individual drone producers. In summer 2024, Ukraine became the first country to establish a separate branch of the military dedicated to drones with the launch of the Unmanned Systems Forces.

The results speak for themselves. Drones are now thought to be responsible for up to three-quarters of Russian battlefield casualties, with Ukrainian army units creating a “drone wall” around ten kilometers in depth along the front lines of the war. At sea, Ukraine has used naval drones to break the Russian blockade of the country’s ports and force Putin to withdraw the bulk of his fleet away from occupied Crimea to the relative safety of Novorossiysk on Russia’s Black Sea coast. Kyiv has also deployed an expanding arsenal of long-range drones to strike high-value targets with increasing frequency deep inside Russia.

In addition to these offensive roles, drones have become a vital element in Ukraine’s air defenses. Since 2024, Russia has dramatically increased the production of kamikaze bomber drones, making it possible to launch hundreds of drones at targets across Ukraine in a single night. The sheer scale of these attacks has meant that traditional missile-based air defenses are no longer practical due to the high cost and limited availability of interceptor missiles. Instead, Ukrainian defense companies have focused on developing and producing interceptor drones in large quantities.

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So far, European efforts to learn from Ukraine’s drone warfare experience have concentrated primarily on securing access to the latest Ukrainian drone innovations. This approach certainly makes sense. However, many Ukrainian specialists have stressed that as their European partners look to develop drone capabilities of their own, effective training programs will be just as important as advanced technologies.

Maria Berlinska, who heads Ukraine’s Victory Drones project, has argued that up to 90 percent of success in drone warfare depends on the training of the team behind the drone rather than the technology involved. “A drone on its own, without the coordinated work of the team, delivers nothing,” she commented in an October 2025 article addressing the need for skilled drone crews.

Training an effective drone pilot is a complex task that can take at least three months. Many categories of drone operators must also be able to act as engineers and mechanics with the ability to repair and reconfigure their systems in the field. To help meet this challenge, Ukraine has developed a strong network of volunteer organizations dedicated to training new drone pilots and preparing them for combat operations. By late 2024, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense had certified over thirty training centers for drone operators. Novel innovations include a mobile drone school located inside a converted bus.

Speaking to Euronews in October, Ukrainian drone warfare expert Fedir Serdiuk warned that Europe was currently focusing too much on drone technologies while overlooking the need to train operators and commanders in the effective battlefield use of drones. “I don’t see as many training centers being built as factories. It’s a major mistake. Not only for technical skills but also for tactical skills,” he commented.

Ukraine appears poised to play a central part in the training of Europe’s drone forces. Ukrainian trainers have already reportedly begun sharing their expertise with a number of countries including Britain, Denmark, and Poland. This trend reflects an important eastward shift in Europe’s defense landscape, with Ukraine emerging as a key contributor to the continent’s future security. This contribution will draw heavily on technological innovations developed during the war with Russia, but it will also emphasize the importance of effective training.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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Jolie’s visit struck a chord with the Ukrainian public at a time when concerns are mounting that the country’s fight for national survival is slipping out of the international headlines. With the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion now approaching, Ukrainians are painfully aware that global audiences have become jaded by endless war coverage and are now no longer shocked or even particularly surprised by reports of fresh Russian war crimes. The high-profile actor’s decision to personally visit some of the most dangerous places in Ukraine was therefore welcomed as a particularly timely and meaningful gesture.

Many Ukrainians praised Jolie for exposing herself to considerable risk in cities that few international guests dare to visit. “Much respect and many thanks for your kind heart, Angelina Jolie!” commented the deputy speaker of the Ukrainian parliament Olena Kondratiuk. “Angelina Jolie went to Kherson, where Russian drones hunt civilians daily. That takes courage,” wrote Ukrainian journalist Svitlana Morenets. “I can’t help but praise her selflessness and kindness in choosing to help draw attention to Ukrainian civilians, especially children, suffering from the war.”

Ukrainian human rights lawyer and Nobel Laureate Oleksandra Matviichuk called Jolie “one of Hollywood’s bravest hearts” and expressed her hope that press and social media coverage of the star’s trip could help educate international audiences about “the cynical drone safaris on civilians that the Russians love to do.” Fellow Ukrainian civil society activist Olena Tregub said she had been personally moved by Jolie’s visit and noted that it sent a “powerful message” to the local population that they have not been forgotten.

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Angelina Jolie is not alone in attempting to focus international attention on Russia’s ‘human safari’ tactics in Ukraine. A United Nations probe recently addressed the issue and confirmed that the Russian military is purposely targeting Ukrainian civilians in a coordinated campaign of drone killings with the aim of depopulating large parts of the country. In an October report by the UN Human Rights Council-appointed Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, investigators concluded that Russia’s actions in southern Ukraine amount to the crimes against humanity of “murder and of forcible transfer of population.”

The UN investigation covered Russian drone activity across three provinces of southern Ukraine including the regions visited by Jolie. It found evidence of systematic attacks against civilians including drone strikes on pedestrians, public transport, essential infrastructure, and emergency services workers, leading to the deaths of at least 200 people since July 2024. As a result of this relentless and coordinated bombing campaign, some of the targeted areas are now said to be “almost entirely vacated.” Crucially, the drones used in these attacks all featured video cameras allowing operators to methodically select and track victims, leaving no room for doubt regarding the deliberate nature of the killings.

Russia stands accused of committing a staggering quantity of war crimes in Ukraine, ranging from the destruction of entire towns and cities and the bombing of vital civilian infrastructure, to the mass detention Ukrainian citizens and the torture of prisoners. The International Criminal Court in The Hague has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on war crimes charges for his personal involvement in the mass abduction and indoctrination of Ukrainian children, which may qualify as an act of genocide.

So far, there has been little concrete progress toward holding Russia legally accountable for the invasion. Ukraine and the Council of Europe signed an agreement in summer 2025 to establish a special tribunal, but is remains unclear when further steps can be expected. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has signaled that the United States will no longer back international efforts to prosecute Putin. Despite these setbacks, Russia’s ‘human safari’ is worthy of special attention as it provides such conclusive proof of the Kremlin’s intention to kill Ukrainian civilians.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an attempt to shatter the existing international order and rewrite the rules of war. If Western leaders fail to impose additional costs on the Kremlin over the deliberate use of drones to hunt down civilian populations, this will set a potentially disastrous precedent that could soon be extended to the rest of Ukraine and beyond. Angelina Jolie’s efforts to highlight this crime against humanity will not prove decisive, but her celebrity intervention has at least made it more difficult for others to claim they did not know.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed Nausėda’s comments and expressed solidarity with Lithuania, calling the Belarusian balloons a “hybrid threat” that Europe will not tolerate. She linked the issue to the European Union’s broader push for enhanced military readiness, particularly in terms of airspace defense capabilities against the growing threat posed by Russian drones and aircraft.

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Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka has dismissed European concerns and attacked the Lithuanian decision to close the border as a “crazy scam,” while also accusing the West of waging a hybrid war against Belarus and Russia. His denials lack credibility, however, given the recent spate of airspace violations across Europe and along the EU’s eastern frontier with Russia and Belarus.

Around twenty Russian drones penetrated Polish airspace in early September, leading to an unprecedented armed response from NATO jets. Some of the Russian drones entered Poland via Belarus, highlighting Minsk’s role in Moscow’s campaign of hybrid aggression. Days later, a small group of Russian fighters violated NATO airspace off the coast of Estonia.

There have also been numerous incidents over the past two months involving suspected Russian drones close to strategic sites throughout Europe including military bases and international airports. Speaking in September, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen claimed the drone incursions were part of a Russian hybrid war and said Europe was facing its “most difficult and dangerous situation” since the end of World War II.

European airspace violations serve a number of purposes for Putin and his Belarusian proxy. In practical terms, they allow the Kremlin to probe NATO defenses and test the alliance’s readiness to combat incursions. Russian drones and Belarusian balloons also inconvenience the European public and intimidate European leaders at a time when the continent is already increasingly alarmed by US President Donald Trump’s mixed messaging over America’s commitment to European security.

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In response to Lithuania’s border closure, Lukashenka has warned that he may now stop cooperating with Brussels on migration issues. Given his regime’s well-documented prior weaponization of migrants on the Belarusian border with the European Union, this is a very thinly-veiled threat.

At the same time, the Belarusian ruler is also attempting to engage in renewed outreach to the West, with a particular emphasis on the US. Lukashenka has held a number of meetings with United States officials in recent months, leading to the release of political prisoners held by Belarus and an easing of American sanctions against Belarusian national airline Belavia.

This apparent thaw has been hailed in Washington as a sign of progress, but not everyone is convinced. Human rights groups have identified 77 new political prisoners in Belarus during September 2025, more than the total number of detainees freed in US-brokered releases since the start of the year. In other words, it would appear that Lukashenka is seeking sanctions relief without committing to end repressive policies at home and while continuing to serve Moscow’s strategic interests.

The Trump administration has signaled its dissatisfaction over recent Belarusian balloon violations of Lithuanian airspace. “I made clear we stand in solidarity with Lithuania amidst recent balloon incursions. Belarus should prevent further such incidents,” commented US Special Envoy John Coale, who has been directly involved in this year’s talks with the Lukashenka regime.

Growing tensions on the Lithuanian border with Belarus should serve as further confirmation that Lukashenka remains fully committed to participating in Russia’s confrontation with the West. Belarusian balloon violations of EU airspace are part of a Kremlin-led campaign to test Western resolve, strain NATO solidarity, and intimidate Europe. As long as Lukashenka continues to play a supporting role in Putin’s hybrid war against the West, he should be regarded as an adversary.

Hanna Liubakova is a journalist from Belarus and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

The UN investigation identified numerous instances on Russian attacks on first responders, including the bombing of ambulances and fire brigade crews attempting to provide emergency aid following earlier strikes. With sudden death from above now an everyday fact of life for the local population, residents of southern Ukraine say they feel hunted and refer to the relentless Russian drone attacks as a “human safari.”

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The drones deployed by the Russian military in this bombing campaign feature video cameras allowing operators to carefully select and track victims, confirming the deliberate and calculated nature of the killings. “All the types of short-range drones used in these attacks are equipped with live streaming cameras that focus on particular targets, leaving no doubt about the knowledge and intent of the perpetrators,” the UN report confirmed.

Russian intent it further underlined by the widespread practice of posting ghoulish video footage online celebrating drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians. These posts are often accompanied by menacing language and warnings for remaining Ukrainian residents to flee the area. “Russian military units often release videos of drone-eye views of civilians being killed, to be posted online by the units or groups affiliated with the Russian army, apparently as a means of amplifying the threat,” reports the New York Times.

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This new UN report underscores the industrial scale and systematic nature of Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Moscow’s efforts to displace the civilian population in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv provinces are only one part of a broader Kremlin campaign to render much of Ukraine unlivable. This depopulation strategy is designed to fuel anti-government sentiment within Ukrainian society and increase the pressure on the Kyiv authorities to capitulate, while also generating fresh waves of Ukrainian refugees and setting the stage for further Russian advances.

In addition to the human safari tactics employed in regions of southern Ukraine located close to the front lines, Russia is engaged in a nationwide bombing campaign of civilian infrastructure that aims to deny Ukrainians access to basic amenities such as heating, electricity, and running water. These attacks are part of a long-running airstrike offensive that escalates each year on the eve of the winter season as Russia seeks to weaponize subzero temperatures and freeze the Ukrainian population into submission.

Since the beginning of the current year, Moscow has also increased the terror bombing of residential districts and other civilian targets such as hospitals and kindergartens in cities across Ukraine. This is fueling a climate of fear and has resulted in a series of mass casualty attacks including a ballistic missile strike targeting Palm Sunday churchgoers in Sumy and the bombing of a park and children’s playground in Kryvyi Rih. Ukrainian civilian casualties surged by 31 percent year-on-year during the first nine months of 2025 due to this intensification of Russian drone and missile strikes.

In a separate probe conducted earlier this year, UN human rights investigators determined that Russia is also guilty of committing crimes against humanity targeting the civilian population in occupied regions of Ukraine. A report released in March 2025 found that Moscow’s large-scale program of illegal detentions and mass deportations throughout areas of Ukraine currently under Kremlin control was “perpetrated pursuant to a coordinated state policy and amounts to crimes against humanity.”

These United Nations findings make a complete mockery of Russia’s attempts to deny targeting Ukrainian civilians. While Kremlin officials frequently assert that the Russian army never deliberately conducts strikes on non-military objects and respects the human rights of noncombatants, overwhelming evidence identified by United Nations investigators demonstrates that Russia is in fact engaged in systematic and centrally coordinated efforts to attack Ukraine’s civilian population.

Russia’s use of drones to conduct a “human safari” in southern Ukraine marks a grim new milestone in the long history of Kremlin war crimes against civilians. UN investigators have now recognized this lethal drone campaign as a crime against humanity. Putin’s decision to target the Ukrainian civilian population in this coordinated manner is a reminder that the current Russian invasion is not only an attempt to destroy Ukraine as a state and as a nation; it is also an attack on the fundamental principles of international law.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

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Anyone approaching Kherson is immediately made aware of the threat from above. The entrance to the city is marked by signs reading “Warning! Danger! Enemy Drones.” Meanwhile, major roads leading into the heart of Kherson and the Dnipro River are covered in improvised netting in a bid to offer some basic protection against the ever-present threat of Russian drones.

For local residents, Russia’s human safari has made sudden death from above an everyday fact of life. During the first nine months of 2025, more than a hundred people were killed and over one thousand were wounded in drone attacks. Those who remain say they feel hunted whenever they dare to leave their homes and venture out into the open air. A United Nations report released in May 2025 concluded that the Russian drone attacks were part of a systematic, coordinated state policy and constituted a crime against humanity.

The Russian side does not appear to have any serious reservations about the routine targeting of Ukrainian civilians in this manner. On the contrary, video footage of drone attacks on the Kherson population are posted online on an almost daily basis and are typically met with overwhelming approval. Nowhere is deemed off-limits by Russian drone teams. Targets have included private homes and residential buildings, cars, buses, and pedestrians. On numerous occasions, ambulances have been targeted as they have attempted to provide emergency care for victims of earlier attacks.

The hardest hit communities are those located along the banks of the Dnipro River and therefore closest to the Russians. In these riverside districts, Russian drones are a more or less constant feature circling in the sky and waiting to attack anything that moves. This makes it extremely difficult to repair damaged infrastructure or deliver essential supplies such as food and medicine. Instead, life has ground to a halt.

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Combating the Russian drone menace is a relentless technological struggle as each side races to innovate and evade the latest countermeasures. In practical terms, it is often difficult for the Ukrainians to cope with the very large numbers of drones deployed by the Russians. The present interception rate in late October of around 80 percent may sound impressive, but this means that 20 percent of drones are still getting through.

Kherson’s current predicament should set alarm bells ringing across Europe and beyond. The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is widely recognized as the world’s first drone war. Moscow’s human safari tactics in Kherson offer a chilling window into what this could mean when military drone technologies are unleashed against civilian populations.

Based on what is known about the Russian human safari campaign in the Kherson region, it should now be abundantly clear that drones can potentially paralyze the life of any modern city. They can be used to leave the population without access to electricity, water, and heating, while also disrupting core supply chains and even preventing people from setting foot outside.

Few countries are currently ready to address this threat. Indeed, the recent appearance of small numbers of Russian drones in Polish airspace and above strategic sites such as airports across Europe has highlighted how unprepared many NATO members are to face the rapidly evolving challenges of drone warfare.

These challenges are nowhere more immediately apparent than in Kherson, which has been living with the horrors of Russia’s human safari for more than a year. The fate of Kherson should serve as a warning to the wider world about the threat posed to civilians by military drone technologies. As countries seek to protest their populations, Ukraine’s unrivaled experience will prove priceless.

Oleksandr Tolokonnikov is Deputy Head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration.

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Both Russia and Ukraine have been heavily reliant on Chinese drone components throughout the past three and a half years of full-scale war. However, export volumes to Russia now dwarf deliveries of key component categories to Ukraine. Many Ukrainians have come to view their dependence on Chinese suppliers as a strategic liability. This vulnerability has been highlighted by restrictions imposed by China on drone component exports to Ukraine including motors, navigation cameras, and flight controllers.

Beijing’s support for the Russian war effort allegedly goes far beyond the provision of drone components. At the end of September, Reuters reported that Chinese experts were traveling to Russia to develop military drones at a state-owned weapons manufacturer currently under Western sanctions. The Russian arms maker in question was accused of producing a new drone, the Garpiya-3, in collaboration with Chinese experts.

Garpiya-3 strike drones are said to feature Chinese technologies and have an operational range extending hundreds of kilometers. Kyiv claims around five hundred of these drones are now being launched at targets inside Ukraine every month. China has denied the reports. If confirmed, this and other instances of collaboration between Russian arms producers and Chinese companies would represent a flagrant violation of Beijing’s stated neutrality.

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Chinese support for the Russian military has also extended to assisting Moscow with the provision of satellite imagery in order to help Russian forces identify potential Ukrainian targets. In October, a senior Ukrainian intelligence official stated that China was supplying satellite intelligence to Russia to facilitate missile strikes inside Ukraine.

Such accusations are not new. In 2023, the US Treasury Department sanctioned seven Chinese firms for providing high-resolution satellite imagery to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. In 2024, a Financial Times report citing senior US officials asserted that China was assisting in the development of Russia’s satellite and space-based capabilities, while also sharing current satellite imagery in support of the Russian war effort.

Claims of deepening military collaboration between China and Russia are complicating efforts by the Trump administration to broker a peace deal and end the largest European invasion since World War II. Despite multiple rounds of sanctions on Russian and Chinese companies, the US and EU do not appear to have made any progress toward reducing the stream of dual use Chinese components heading to Russia.

In recent months, US State Department officials have estimated that China is now providing “nearly 80 percent” of the sanctioned dual use items Russia requires to continue the war in Ukraine. The significance of this Chinese contribution cannot be overstated. Without a steady supply of cheap Chinese drone components, for example, it is unlikely that Russia would be able to maintain the bombardment of Ukrainian cities and the country’s civilian infrastructure at anything like the current intensity.

Bessent’s recent remarks are an encouraging sign that the US authorities recognize China’s integral role in enabling Russia’s invasion. However, further steps are needed. Cooperation between Beijing and Moscow in areas including the development of new military technologies and the sharing of satellite information for bombing raids cannot be ignored. This problematic collaboration will continue to undercut efforts to end the war in Ukraine until it is addressed.

Katherine Spencer is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

Vladimir Putin’s war machine may finally be running out of fuel

Vladyslav Davydov — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 20:46:18 +0000

As reports of cracks in Russia’s wartime economy continue to mount, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is now predicting that the Kremlin will face an unprecedented budget deficit of around $100 billion in 2026. The Ukrainian leader is far from alone in forecasting more economic pain in the pipeline for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. US President Donald Trump has recent stated that the Russian economy is “going to collapse” unless Putin ends the invasion of Ukraine.

This is not the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion that Russia has faced major budgetary strains. In 2022, the Kremlin’s urgent need to cover rising military expenditures forced it to resort to improvised measures such as windfall taxes on the energy and banking sectors. A surge in commodity prices then helped cover Russia’s ballooning defense budget, while mobilization and additional recruitment in 2023 and 2024 were financed mainly through municipal and regional budgets, along with minor tax hikes.

For much of the past three and a half years, international attention has focused on Russia’s apparent success in overcoming the impact of sanctions, along with the Kremlin’s ability to maintain modest GDP growth while transitioning to wartime conditions. However, the economic strain of the ongoing invasion is now becoming increasingly hard to disguise.

Russia’s deepening economic difficulties have been exacerbated by a highly effective Ukrainian campaign of long-range air strikes targeting the oil and gas industry that fuels Putin’s war machine. Since August 2025, Ukraine has launched a large-scale air offensive against oil refineries, gas processing plants, fuel depots, pipelines, logistics hubs, and export terminals across the Russian Federation. This has contributed to a sharp drop in Russian energy export revenues and led to spikes in fuel prices for domestic consumers. In recent months, fuel shortages have been reported in regions throughout Russia, with car owners forced to queue for hours in search of limited supplies.

The current fuel crisis in Russia is unlikely to be resolved soon. In a recent assessment, the Paris-based International Energy Agency stated that the impact from Ukrainian drone strikes is expected to suppress refinery processing rates for Russia’s economically crucial oil industry until at least mid-2026. Ukrainian strikes are also continuing to gain pace, with Kyiv in the process of developing a new generation of domestically produced missiles that should enable a further escalation in the bombing campaign.

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To cover the growing gaps in the Russian budget and continue funding the war, the Kremlin plans to hike the country’s VAT rate from 20 to 22 percent. Tax increases are also expected to impact entrepreneurs, as the threshold for Russia’s simplified system with lower rates is set to be reduced fourfold. Critics have characterized this strategy as redirecting money away from ordinary Russian citizens and private businesses in order to finance the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s deteriorating economic situation places the Kremlin in a difficult position. On the one hand, a combination of sustained Western support for Ukraine and funding issues in Moscow mean that the Russian military could soon face increasing difficulties on the battlefield. On the other hand, the longer the fighting drags on, the more Russia’s economy is likely to suffer. Meanwhile, further sanctions measures and Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy industry are creating new pressure points that risk fueling domestic discontent inside Russia.

With relatively little movement along the military front lines in Ukraine over the past two years, the economic front of the war may ultimately prove decisive. “Putin will only stop this war when he thinks he can’t win, and for him to come to that conclusion, there needs to be more pressure on the Russian economy and more help for the Ukrainians,” commented Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski in September. “The war will likely end the way World War I ended. One side or another will run out of resources to carry on.”

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The objective in Western capitals must now be to make sure Russia runs out of resources before Ukraine. This should not be beyond the realms of possibility, given the vastly superior resources of Ukraine’s allies.

Russia’s current goal is to reduce its dependence on oil and gas. The planned Russian budget for 2026 is based on a lower oil price and aims to rely more on domestic taxes instead. Over time, this approach could make Russian state finances more resilient by cutting the share of oil and gas revenues from the current level of around 40 percent to about half that figure. But if Western countries tighten sanctions at the right moment, this plan could backfire, triggering runaway inflation and a further slowdown in Russian economic activity.

There are currently encouraging signs of Western readiness to increasingly target Putin’s war economy. Trump’s efforts to impose tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil have already made some nervous about trading with Moscow. The EU and UK have also stepped up sanctions, including blacklisting more ships from Russia’s shadow fleet. These measures are having an impact. For example, China’s Qingdao Port recently introduced technical restrictions on tankers that will effectively ban shadow fleet vessels, a move that underscores growing caution toward doing business with the Kremlin.

Ukraine’s deep strikes have exposed Putin’s Achilles heel and have helped demonstrate that the Russian economy is far more fragile than many in Moscow would like us to believe. Kyiv’s Western partners should now exploit their economic leverage over Russia in order to increase the pressure on Putin and convince the Kremlin that continuing the war could lead to economic ruin.

Vladyslav Davydov is an advisor to Ukraine’s First Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories.

Ukraine’s drone sanctions are working but don’t expect a Russian revolt

Christopher Isajiw — Thu, 16 Oct 2025 20:06:40 +0000

Since early August 2025, Ukraine has been conducting a long-range bombing campaign targeting the oil and gas industry infrastructure that fuels the Russian war economy. This air offensive has proved highly successful, leading to reduced export revenues and gasoline shortages across Russia. However, while what many Ukrainians refer to as “drone sanctions” are clearly adding to the Kremlin’s economic woes, this is unlikely to spark any kind of meaningful domestic Russian opposition to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Instead, progress toward peace will depend on sustained external pressure from Kyiv and its international partners.

While the Kremlin is understandably eager to conceal the scale of the damage caused by Ukraine’s energy sector attacks, there can be little question that the strikes conducted in recent months are bringing Putin’s invasion home to ordinary Russians. In early October, the Paris-based International Energy Agency downgraded its outlook for Russia and assessed that the impact from Ukrainian drone strikes will suppress Russia’s refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026. Meanwhile, car owners across Russia are being forced to queue for gasoline amid supply issues not witnessed since the dark days of the early 1990s.

The current wave of fuel shortages is undermining Kremlin efforts to shield the Russian population from the negative consequences of the war in Ukraine. Putin has been careful to limit the impact of the invasion on ordinary Russians, with military recruitment concentrated on disadvantaged regions of the country, prison populations, and financially motivated volunteers. This approach is very much in line with the unwritten ‘social contract’ that has evolved during the 25 years of Putin’s reign, whereby he offers the Russian public higher living standards in exchange for curtailed personal freedoms and political passivity.

The so-called social contract between Putin and the Russian population had already begun to unravel long before the present wave of Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy industry. Over the past three and a half years, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has resulted in military losses unseen in Europe since World War II. At least one million Russians have been killed or wounded in the conflict, according to Britain’s Ministry of Defense and other international sources.

In parallel, economic growth in all but the defense sector has stagnated, with massive payments to military personnel deepening public dependency on the war. Throughout Russian society, policies of repression have reached unprecedented new levels as Putin has exploited wartime conditions to complete the country’s transition from flawed democracy to authoritarian dictatorship. Despite this deteriorating domestic situation, there is still no sign of any significant anti-war movement in today’s Russia.

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It is probably unrealistic to expect any Russian revolt over Putin’s breach of the social contract. This should not come as a surprise. While opinion polls have often indicated strong public support for the Putin regime, the Kremlin has always relied primarily on coercion rather than consensus. Throughout Putin’s reign, opposition figures have been exiled, imprisoned, or silenced, while the independent media has been muzzled and civil society suppressed. Following the onset of the full-scale invasion, these trends have all intensified. As a result, there is currently little prospect of any grassroots protests.

Opposition from within Russia’s elite looks equally unlikely. With the Russian economy increasingly on a war footing, the full-scale invasion is now a crucial factor determining the wealth and status of the country’s political and business establishment. With most members of the elite personally dependent on Putin and largely locked out of the Western world, the conditions for a Kremlin coup appear to be almost entirely absent. Instead, the invasion of Ukraine has allowed Putin to consolidate his grip on power and has forced those around him to draw closer to the throne.

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This does not mean that Ukraine’s current strategy of long-range strikes against the Russian energy sector is futile. Far from it, in fact. But with Putin firmly entrenched on the home front, only external pressures can realistically force him to abandon his invasion. Ukrainian attacks on Putin’s oil and gas industry are already having a significant impact on the Russian economy. If the current momentum can be maintained into 2026, the economic damage could become far more severe. This will curtail Moscow’s ability to finance and prosecute the war in Ukraine, while also negatively impacting many other aspects of Russian daily life.

Ukrainian efforts to push Putin to the negotiating table can only succeed with stronger Western support. Despite Russia’s claims of resilience, its economy remains heavily dependent on energy exports, with China and India the main clients. Effective Western action should include tightening sanctions on these buyers. Efforts must also continue to end all European purchases of Russian energy exports, either directly or via third parties. Additionally, Western leaders could help end the war by working to bring down global oil prices, thereby starving the Kremlin of much-needed export revenues.

Economic measures alone will not be enough. Military aid to Ukraine should also increase, with an emphasis on the provision of weapons systems capable of strengthening Ukraine’s domestic defenses while allowing Kyiv to expand attacks inside Russia. The objective should be to stabilize the front lines in Ukraine and protect Ukrainian cities from bombardment, while escalating the destruction of Russia’s war economy through a combination of air strikes and sanctions. If these goals can be achieved, Putin may finally be compelled to seek a settlement.

Christopher Isajiw is an international relations commentator and business development consultant to private, governmental, and non-governmental organizations.

The coming winter is shaping up to be the harshest of the war for Ukraine’s civilian population. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko described the recent attack on the city’s electricity infrastructure as one of the most devastating since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Meanwhile, officials at Ukraine’s state-owned energy giant Naftogaz say the latest Russian strikes have disabled 60 percent of the country’s gas production.

Ukraine has repeatedly demonstrated remarkable resilience, including in recent days as emergency crews worked to restore electricity to millions of people within hours of Russian strikes. Nevertheless, with the situation set to become more critical in the weeks and months to come, Ukraine’s allies need to consider decisive action.

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Russia’s strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure are no longer just a Ukrainian problem. Moscow’s bombing campaign will become a wider European issue unless more support is offered to Kyiv. The threat to European energy markets has been increasingly apparent throughout the current year. A number of Russian attacks on Ukrainian gas production assets in February 2025 led to severe imbalances, with a knock-on impact on most central and eastern European countries.

Between February and September, Ukraine bought close to five billion cubic meters of gas from European markets to plug the gap and prepare for winter, lifting regional demand and prices. If Russia continues its attacks this winter, the impact on Ukraine and the wider region promises to be even more dramatic. To prevent a regional deficit, all neighboring countries should therefore consider lifting existing restrictions on exports to Ukraine.

Europe has options to improve the energy outlook for Ukraine, but this will require quick political decisions. Global supplies of liquefied natural gas are set to rise in the coming months thanks to a surge in production, primarily in the US. While most western European countries will benefit from these additional imports because they have access to sea terminals and functional markets, consumers further to the east are less privileged as most are landlocked or have regional transmission capacity that is either congested or too expensive to use.

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Restrictions on energy logistics networks are having a direct impact on Ukraine. Despite sharing borders with four EU countries, Kyiv has been relying mostly on Poland and Hungary to secure imports and offset the domestic deficit caused by Russian attacks. Although Slovakia could offer ample transmission capacity, most of which is now idle because the country no longer transits Russian gas, its transmission tariffs are prohibitively expensive, limiting Ukraine’s ability to import gas from western Europe.

To compound matters, tariffs could increase by a further 70 percent in January 2026 if a planned hike is approved before the end of the year. Meanwhile, neighboring Romania has no less than four border interconnectors with Ukraine. However, its gas grid operator, Transgaz, allows gas to be shipped only on one of these at less than full capacity.

Romania has significant gas production but currently bans exports to Ukraine, quoting technical differences in gas quality in the two countries. Transgaz also charges some of the most expensive transmission tariffs in the region, which means that even countries which would like to ship gas to Ukraine via Romania may be discouraged from doing so.

Keeping tariffs high or blocking infrastructure is not only bad news for Ukraine. It also poses risks to the entire region, including consumers in Romania and Slovakia, because any congestion creates artificial deficits which lead to higher prices. EU and US policymakers understand the extent of the problem and privately admit that even their own interests may be impacted. For example, blocked capacity could also limit the ability of US companies to sell LNG to clients across central and eastern Europe.

Discussions are ongoing but the clock is ticking. As winter approaches, it is now more pressing than ever for Brussels and Washington to convince countries such as Slovakia and Romania to cooperate.

In an ideal scenario, Western allies would consider radical measures such as establishing a no-fly zone over parts of Ukraine with NATO aircraft patrolling its skies and protecting its people and civilian infrastructure. However, as NATO members remain deeply reluctant to risk a direct clash with the Kremlin, the next best option is to persuade Ukraine’s neighbors to put narrow national interests aside and take concrete steps to support Kyiv.

Dr. Aura Sabadus is a senior energy journalist who writes about Eastern Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine for Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), a London-based global energy and petrochemicals news and market data provider. Her views are her own.

At the same time, it is difficult to believe that Putin is in a position to dramatically expand the current war. The Kremlin dictator has committed the vast majority of Russia’s available military potential to the invasion of Ukraine, leaving him too overstretched to intervene elsewhere on behalf of Russian allies in Armenia, Syria, and Iran. A Russian attack on NATO therefore looks unlikely, at least for now. Instead, the recent surge in Russian hybrid warfare activities is primarily an attempt to intimidate Europe and deter further support for Ukraine.

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Putin has long been recognized for his skill in the dark arts of international intimidation. This reputation has been significantly enhanced by the success of his scare tactics during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, while Putin’s armies have struggled to live up to expectations on the battlefield, his ability to intimidate his Western adversaries has been arguably the Russian leader’s single greatest achievement of the entire war.

Since the initial hours of the invasion, Putin has used a combination of thinly-veiled threats and nuclear saber-rattling to browbeat the West and isolate Ukraine. Like a geopolitical gangster, he has repeatedly intimidated Europeans with the prospect of shattering their peaceful existence if they dare to interfere in his criminal affairs. While he has typically steered clear of direct ultimatums, the underlying message behind Putin’s many menacing statements has been unmistakable: “Nice countries you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to them.”

This strategy has proved remarkably effective. While Western governments have condemned Russia’s “irresponsible” use of nuclear rhetoric and have publicly insisted that they will not be bullied by the Kremlin, there can be no serious debate that Putin’s threats have had the desired effect. His intimidation tactics have been fundamental in shaping the overly cautious international response to Russia’s invasion, which has been consistently characterized by an excessive emphasis on avoiding escalation.

The Kremlin dictator is now looking to employ the same approach as he seeks to exploit Europe’s growing sense of insecurity. Putin is well aware that European leaders have been unnerved by US President Donald Trump’s mixed messaging on NATO and his plans to reduce America’s involvement in the defense of Europe. For Moscow, this presents an inviting opportunity. By engaging in increasingly open acts of aggression across Europe, Putin is sending a signal to European capitals that they are all alone against a resurgent Russia and can no longer count on the reassuring presence of the United States.

Earlier this week, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev provided the most explicit indication yet that the recent spike in Russian gray zone operations is aimed at intimidating Europeans. While refusing to accept responsibility for the sharp rise in disruptive drone activity, Medvedev noted with satisfaction that the “drone epidemic” was causing widespread panic and could persuade Europeans to turn away from Ukraine. “The main thing is for narrow-minded Europeans to experience the dangers of war for themselves. To tremble like dumb animals in a herd being driven to the slaughter. To soil themselves with fear, anticipating their imminent and painful end,” he commented in typically understated fashion.

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Putin is clearly hoping his drone diplomacy will spread a sense of alarm across Europe and encourage the continent’s leaders to abandon Ukraine. Desired initial outcomes include a reduction in European military aid for Kyiv and the redirection of existing resources away from Ukraine in order to bolster defenses closer to home. By exposing Europe’s vulnerability to Russian attack, Moscow may also be able to undermine the prospects of a unified European defense policy and strengthen support for Kremlin-friendly political parties advocating appeasement toward Russia.

This strategy is not without risk, of course. Some in Europe, particularly those with firsthand experience of Russian imperialism, are pushing hard for comprehensive countermeasures to Putin’s recent provocations that will underline the continent’s commitment to defending itself. Many remain unconvinced that Europe will rise to the challenge, however. The Kremlin certainly appears confident that the current rhetoric in European capitals will ultimately result in little concrete action.

This apparent lack of concern in Moscow should come as no surprise. After all, Putin has been betting on Western weakness for over two decades. Ever since he first embarked on an expansionist foreign policy with the 2008 invasion of Georgia, Putin has been counting on the democratic world’s deep reluctance to risk a direct military confrontation with the Kremlin. So far, his low opinion of the West has proved more than justified.

Putin’s invasion has not gone according to plan but he still firmly believes he can win the war by outlasting the West and overwhelming Ukraine. He has recently been encouraged by Trump’s efforts to downgrade US involvement, and now views Europe as the last remaining obstacle to Russian victory. It is therefore safe to assume that the Kremlin’s campaign of gray zone aggression will continue to gain momentum as Putin seeks to cow Europe and isolate Kyiv. The Russian leader thinks his enemies are weak and can be easily intimidated. Until he is proved wrong, the cost of stopping him will only rise.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Ukraine’s defense tech sector must guard against innovation drain

Andriy Dovbenko — Thu, 09 Oct 2025 00:01:12 +0000

On the outskirts of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine, Ukrainian electronic warfare teams are deploying home-grown systems that automatically detect and suppress Russian drones. Along the southern front, domestically developed observation drones are giving Ukrainian troops real-time visibility in contested airspace. These are not prototypes; they’re battle-proven Ukrainian technologies saving lives on a daily basis and shaping the future of warfare.

Yet as Ukraine cements its reputation as a defense tech powerhouse, a strategic risk is emerging. Without robust intellectual property (IP) protections, Ukraine may lose control of the very breakthroughs that are currently helping to defend the country on the battlefield. Ukraine could potentially win the war itself and secure national survival, only to lose the innovation economy that should underpin its recovery.

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Wartime urgency creates pressure to sacrifice IP sovereignty. Startups under fire need capital, global market access, and production capacity which foreign investors and international partners can provide. But too often, these deals require handing over IP rights. What looks like a lifeline can, in fact, be a strategic loss.

This leaves Ukraine exposed to a quiet leakage of its designs. Meanwhile, the absence of a strong domestic IP framework risks pushing entrepreneurs to register patents and commercialize outside the country, where protections are stronger and funding is more accessible. The result could be both a brain drain and an innovation drain, hollowing out Ukraine’s defense tech sector just as it proves its global potential. Instead of becoming an international hub, Ukraine risks being relegated to the status of pipeline for foreign defense industries.

The case for IP sovereignty is not only about Ukraine’s economy and national security; it is also about the future resilience of Europe and NATO. For Ukraine, retained IP means royalties, licensing revenues, and a steady funding stream for reconstruction. It signals to investors that Ukraine is not just a wartime incubator but a serious innovation ecosystem. Most importantly, it preserves national sovereignty. Control over sensitive technologies ensures Ukraine is not permanently dependent on foreign suppliers for security.

For Kyiv’s allies, Ukrainian IP is also an important asset. The United States is currently exploring a multi-billion dollar joint drone production deal with Ukraine. But if Ukraine cannot retain ownership, partners risk relying on fragmented supply chains and losing access to innovation. Europe’s Defense Industrial Strategy, launched this year, calls for a resilient continental base. That goal will be undermined if Europe’s most battle-tested and innovative nation loses control of its own technologies.

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Protecting IP involves more than goodwill. It requires policy, legislation, and institutional design. Every foreign aid package and licensing deal should include explicit protections for Ukrainian IP ownership. Likewise, technological solutions co-developed with international partners must not result in the wholesale transfer of rights.

Ukraine’s current plan to relax restrictions on some categories of arms exports is good news. Export barriers force many firms into joint ventures (JVs) or licensing arrangements that often strip away their IP protections. Enabling direct exports would ease this dependency on JVs or licensing, reducing both complexity and IP risk, as well as the danger of leakage. Ukraine should encourage co-production and investment, but on terms that guarantee domestic equity and enforceable IP rights.

Currently, the Ukrainian government is closely monitoring its top innovators to prevent IP leaks abroad. Some companies have sought to incorporate outside of Ukraine in order to free themselves from these shackles, but have encountered problems related to unfair IP structuring. One solution could be greater intergovernmental cooperation. This could allow Ukraine to access external capital and expertise while keeping control over core technologies.

Tech parks and defense incubators should anchor talent domestically, providing access to funding, testing grounds, and mentorship. With 40,000 trained drone pilots and a new generation of AI engineers, Ukraine could benefit hugely if the country can create the right climate to build global companies at home. Speed is also important. Traditional patent offices often move too slowly for battlefield innovation. Ukraine needs a dedicated defense IP office to fast-track protection, address dual-use complexities, and guard against theft or predatory licensing.

The Israeli experience provides a potentially useful model for Ukraine. Decades of conflict have forced Israel to develop technologies with immediate battlefield relevance. Crucially, Israel has managed to retain IP sovereignty, even when foreign funding was involved, and has built an ecosystem where defense innovation feeds into global competitiveness.

Europe also offers lessons. Airbus shows how multinational collaboration can preserve shared IP while scaling production across borders. The overall objective is clear: Ukraine should be positioned as a central node in Europe’s defense industry and not just as a subcontractor.

Ukraine’s battlefield innovations are saving lives today, but they can also lay the foundations for tomorrow’s Ukrainian economy. Without IP sovereignty, Ukraine risks becoming a laboratory for others. With the right frameworks, Ukraine can transition from its current status as a war-driven exporter of ideas to become a global defense industry innovation leader. This can only happen if the country’s IP assets are protected.

Andriy Dovbenko is the founder and principal at UK-Ukraine TechExchange.

Drone superpower Ukraine is teaching NATO how to defend against Russia

David Kirichenko — Thu, 02 Oct 2025 20:23:42 +0000

The recent escalation in Russian drone incursions across Europe has inadvertently underlined Ukraine’s burgeoning reputation as the continent’s leading practitioner of drone warfare. A number of individual countries including Denmark and Poland have responded to Russia’s provocative actions by seeking to establish joint anti-drone training initiatives with Ukrainian instructors, while Ukraine has featured prominently in the fast-evolving discussion over a collective European defense against Putin’s drones.

Ukraine’s drone warfare prowess was a hot topic at this week’s European Political Community Summit in Copenhagen. “The only expert right now in the world when it comes to anti-drone capacities is Ukraine, because they are fighting the Russian drones almost every day,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen commented. “We need to take all the experiences, all the new technology, all the innovation from Ukraine, and incorporate it into our own rearmament.”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte agreed with the Danish leader’s assessment of Ukraine’s pivotal role. “Ukraine is a powerhouse when it comes to military innovation and anti-drone technology,” he noted, adding that Ukraine’s readiness to share its insights with the country’s NATO partners was “very important.”

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Ukraine’s rapid rise to drone superpower status confirms the old adage that necessity is the mother of invention. When Putin first launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it was clear that the Ukrainian military could not realistically hope to compete with Russia’s often overwhelming advantages in terms of manpower and conventional firepower. Instead, Kyiv would have to rely on a combination of raw courage and innovative technological solutions.

From the early stages of the war, Ukraine began pioneering the large-scale deployment of drones in combat roles. By 2023, this was enabling Ukrainian commanders to compensate for artillery shell shortages and blunt Russian advances. This emphasis on relatively cheap and highly effective drones has transformed the battlefield and created a kill zone along the front lines that Ukrainians have dubbed the “Drone Wall.”

With drones now ubiquitous above the battlefield, any soldier or vehicle that breaks cover in a zone stretching for many kilometers on either side of the zero line risks becoming an instant target. This has made it extremely challenging to concentrate large quantities of troops and armor, which helps explain the lack of major front line breakthroughs over the past three years.

Ukraine has also employed drone technologies to great effect far beyond the battlefield. Kyiv’s innovative use of marine drones has turned the tide in the Battle of the Black Sea, breaking the Russian blockade of Ukraine’s southern coastline and forcing Putin to withdraw the bulk of his warships from occupied Crimea to the relative safety of Russian ports. More recently, Ukrainian marine drones have been modified to carry anti-aircraft missiles and have reportedly shot down Russian helicopters over the Black Sea. This unprecedented success has revolutionized naval warfare and led to growing global interest in Ukraine’s domestically developed marine drones.

Kyiv has dramatically expanded its long-range drone fleet in recent years as part of a strategy to bring Putin’s invasion home to Russia. As a result, Ukraine has been able to mount a highly effective bombing campaign since August 2025 targeting oil refineries, logistics hubs, and military industrial sites deep inside the Russian Federation. This has led to a fuel crisis across Russia, with some regions forced to introduce gasoline rationing amid supply shortages and record price hikes. Ukraine’s long-range strikes have helped to reshape perceptions of the war and have demonstrated how Kyiv’s technological edge can offset its material disadvantages.

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Former Ukrainian Commander in Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi was one of the architects of Ukraine’s drone warfare doctrine until being relieved of his position in early 2024. In a recent commentary, he argued that innovation must remain the foundation of a sustainable Ukrainian resistance strategy against Russia. Zaluzhnyi stressed that Ukraine’s embrace of drone technologies has helped offset the imbalance between the two countries while inflicting disproportionate costs on the Kremlin. “Ukraine must compensate for its relative lack of resources by constantly introducing military innovations,” he commented.

Ukraine and Russia now find themselves locked in a relentless race to innovate, with the window between the appearance of new weapons systems and the development of effective countermeasures now sometimes reduced to a matter of weeks. The intensity of this competition has turbo-charged Ukraine’s domestic drone industry and propelled it far ahead of its Western counterparts.

If NATO members wish to close this gap, they must lean heavily on the technical and strategic lessons learned by the Ukrainian military over the past three and half years of full-scale drone warfare. Training initiatives are already underway, with President Zelenskyy expressing his readiness to share Ukraine’s experience with more of the country’s NATO partners.

A growing number of countries are also looking to establish joint drone production in order to benefit from Ukrainian defense tech know-how. In late September, Britain announced that it would soon launch the mass production of interceptor drones developed in collaboration with Ukraine. Romania has also recently unveiled ambitious plans to manufacture drones in partnership with Ukraine for domestic use and for potential export to NATO allies. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian delegation is reportedly in the United States this week to negotiate a landmark deal with the Trump administration that would see Kyiv sharing battle-tested drone technology with the US.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the world’s first fully fledged drone war and represents a watershed moment in military history. With drones now set to play a dominant role in the wars of the future, Ukraine’s unique experience in this technologically advanced form of warfare makes the country a key partner for NATO and an indispensable ally in the defense of Europe.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

The results speak for themselves. Ukrainian drones have excelled along the front lines of the conflict and have allowed Kyiv to turn the tide in the Battle of the Black Sea. Far beyond Ukraine’s borders, the country’s growing fleet of bomber drones now routinely strike targets deep inside the Russian Federation.

Many partner countries are understandably eager to incorporate Ukrainian drone technologies into their own defense doctrines. Britain recently confirmed that it will begin mass producing drones developed in collaboration with Ukraine as part of efforts to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank against the threat of Russian incursions. A Ukrainian delegation reportedly set off for the United States in late September to begin discussions on a potentially major drone production cooperation agreement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is well aware of his country’s rising military profile and sees the current mission to Denmark as a potential model for a more comprehensive approach to Ukrainian drone warfare training initiatives with other European countries. “Our experience, our specialists, and our technologies can become a key element in Europe’s future Drone Wall initiative,” he commented on September 30.

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Ukraine’s burgeoning reputation as a key player in the field of drone warfare reflects the dramatic shifts currently taking place in Europe’s security architecture. Until quite recently, Ukraine was treated as a military minnow struggling to adopt NATO standards. Strikingly, it is now NATO that is seeking to adopt Ukrainian standards.

The emergence of Ukraine as a drone superpower is only one aspect of the country’s remarkable recent transformation into a major military force. The Ukrainian army is also at the cutting edge of innovation in defense tech sectors including electronic warfare, robotic systems, and cyber security. It came as no surprise that the recent Defense Tech Valley industry showcase event in western Ukraine attracted at least 5000 participants from over 50 countries, with Western companies pledging more than $100 million in investments.

The technological progress made by the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2022 is certainly eye-catching, but the country’s human capital remains its greatest asset. Today’s Ukraine boasts Europe’s second-largest army, with almost one million men and women currently in uniform and a large reserve of battle-hardened combat veterans. This dwarfs anything else on the continent, even before Ukraine’s unrivaled experience of modern warfare is taken into account. With the United States seeking to reduce its role in European security, the Ukrainian military is now the biggest single barrier between an expansionist Russia and an unprepared Europe.

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Ukraine’s newfound status as one of Europe’s leading military powers is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s worst nightmare. It is nightmare entirely of his own making. Indeed, this military metamorphosis would have been inconceivable without the impetus of Russian imperial aggression.

When Putin began the invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Kyiv had only a few thousand combat-ready troops at its disposal. At first, things went according to plan for Moscow, with minimal Ukrainian resistance to the seizure of Crimea. However, Russian efforts to push further into mainland Ukraine then sparked a wave of popular resistance, with thousands of ordinary Ukrainians forming improvised volunteer battalions to block the Kremlin advance. This epic grassroots response saved Ukraine and laid the foundations for the subsequent expansion and modernization of the Ukrainian army.

Despite this stunning setback, Putin refused to accept defeat. With his initial plans to extinguish Ukrainian statehood thwarted, the Kremlin dictator made the fateful decision to escalate further and began preparing to launch the full-scale invasion of February 2022.

On the morning of the invasion, Putin identified the “demilitarization” of Ukraine as one of his two key war aims. This made perfect sense. After all, in order to effectively subjugate Ukraine, it would first be necessary to render the country defenseless. However, it is now abundantly clear that Putin’s plan to demilitarize Ukraine has backfired disastrously.

Russia’s invasion has spurred the creation of a formidable military machine in Ukraine that has quickly come to occupy a pivotal role in European security. In capitals across Europe, there is a growing sense of recognition that the Ukrainian army is indispensable for the defense of the continent and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Kyiv’s partners now have an obvious and urgent self-interest in supporting Ukraine’s defense industry and financing the Ukrainian war effort. Indeed, the choice currently facing European leaders is disarmingly simple: Support Ukraine today or face Russia tomorrow.

With Russian troops still advancing and Russian drones and missiles pummeling Ukrainian cities, it remains far too early to declare Putin’s invasion a failure. Nevertheless, it is already difficult to conceive of any outcome that would leave Ukraine undefended and at Moscow’s mercy. Instead, the Ukrainian army is likely to emerge from the war stronger than ever and fully capable of defending the country’s place within the European community of nations. Putin had hoped to disarm and decapitate the Ukrainian state, but his self-defeating demilitarization campaign has inadvertently created the strong and fiercely independent Ukraine he feared most of all.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

According to the French outlet Intelligence Online, Mexican and Ukrainian intelligence services are investigating reports that Mexican nationals joined Ukraine’s International Legion not to fight Russia’s invasion but to study FPV drone operations. These “volunteers” allegedly sought assignment to specialized units where FPV tactics were evolving most rapidly, acquiring knowledge and techniques that could accelerate the cartels’ learning curve by a matter of years.

Mexico’s National Intelligence Center reportedly sent a memo to Ukraine’s counterintelligence service, the SBU, warning that Spanish-speaking volunteers in the International Legion were deliberately targeting FPV training. The memo expressed concern that cartel-linked operatives were embedding within semi-clandestine International Legion units along the frontlines, such as Ethos, which has tested FPVs in large numbers. Some investigations have even extended to the possible involvement of non-Mexican actors, including individuals linked to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as FARC.

Ukraine’s International Legion was created as a noble effort to harness global solidarity against Russia’s invasion. Yet its open recruitment policy also created opportunities for malign actors to exploit the war as a proving ground. For Mexican cartels, whose drone programs have historically lagged global innovators by five to ten years, this represents a chance to leapfrog directly to the cutting edge.

FPV drones are rapidly evolving

The Ukrainian battlefield has become a laboratory for drone warfare. At the outset of the war, Kyiv received small batches of manufactured loitering munitions, such as the US-supplied Switchblade. But these systems proved expensive, limited in scale, and vulnerable to Russian electronic warfare. Ukrainian innovators quickly pivoted to commercially available FPVs, originally designed for high-speed drone racing.

The advantages of FPVs immediately became clear. They’re cheap—often under four hundred dollars per unit—highly maneuverable, and easily assembled from off-the-shelf parts. They can carry small explosive payloads with precision. And operating them only requires a level of dexterity that can be honed through widely available flight simulators. What began as improvisation soon evolved into industrial-scale production lines, backed by a global supply chain of parts and volunteer networks.

In the past three years, Ukrainian FPV tactics have advanced rapidly. Operators have integrated octocopters as airborne relays, extending control ranges by serving as signal repeaters. Artificial intelligence has been layered in, allowing FPVs to lock onto targets even when communications are jammed. More recently, Ukrainian units have deployed drones tethered with fiber optic spools, enabling secure, jam-resistant operations deep into contested environments.

This rapid cycle of innovation has created what military analysts call a “co-evolutionary dance” between Ukraine and Russia—new FPV tactics prompting new countermeasures, which in turn spur further adaptation. For outside observers, however, the key lesson is clear: These technologies are transferable, scalable, and relatively easy to learn. What takes years for militaries to institutionalize can be picked up in weeks by dedicated operators with access to training.

How cartels are using FPVs

For Mexican cartels, FPVs offer an ideal combination of affordability, lethality, and deniability. They can be assembled discreetly, launched from improvised sites, and targeted with extraordinary precision. In cartel-on-cartel warfare, FPVs might be capable of striking high-value targets inside fortified compounds, which previously required costly and high-risk raids. Cartels already have experience experimenting with drones. Roughly five years ago, some began dropping grenades and small improvised munitions from commercial quadcopters, many years after the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, pioneered the tactic in Syria. These systems were crude and limited. FPVs, by contrast, bring maneuverability and standoff capability that could tilt the balance of power in ongoing conflicts.

There are already signs that cartels are adapting their FPV tactics. In their long-running arms race, the Sinaloa cartel and the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación are reportedly testing FPVs in west-central Mexico. Videos have surfaced online of FPV attacks depicting targeted strikes. In anticipation, some cartel “narco-tanks” have been modified with protective cages to ward off drone strikes—eerily echoing the battlefield adaptations of Russian and Ukrainian forces.

The danger is not confined to cartel rivalries. Should US policy escalate to commonplace kinetic strikes against cartels—a possibility the Trump administration acted on recently—FPVs could quickly be redirected toward US personnel and infrastructure. Border patrols, forward operating bases, or even critical nodes in urban environments could become vulnerable to swarm attacks.

How the US can adapt to drone proliferation

Nonstate actors can now acquire capabilities once reserved for nation-states. Cartels are no longer merely criminal syndicates; they increasingly resemble hybrid entities blending organized crime, paramilitary force, and terrorist tactics.

The United States and its partners cannot afford to treat cartel drone experimentation as a distant curiosity. The risk trajectory is clear: What begins as opportunistic adoption can quickly harden into doctrine. In response, the United States should take several steps to combat this threat:

Enhance intelligence cooperation. Washington should strengthen trilateral intelligence sharing with Mexico and Ukraine, focusing on the movement of personnel and technology linked to FPVs. Early identification of operatives seeking training abroad is critical.
Invest in counter-drone defenses. US Customs and Border Protection, the Department of Homeland Security, and Mexican security forces need access to the latest counter-drone technologies. This includes directed-energy weapons, jamming tools, and radar systems scaled to detect small, low-flying craft.
Disrupt supply chains. While FPV parts are commercially available, targeted export controls and monitoring could slow bulk acquisition by malign actors. Cooperation with private manufacturers is essential.
Reframe cartels as hybrid threats. US strategy must continue to evolve beyond treating cartels as criminal and terrorist organizations, instead combating them as “narco-multinational corporations” (narco-MNC). Their adoption of military-grade tactics—combined with terrorist-style violence—demands a whole-of-government approach that blends law enforcement, defense, and intelligence tools.
Plan for FPV attacks on the US-Mexico border. Scenarios involving FPV swarm attacks on border facilities should be integrated into homeland security through Multi-National, and Multi-Agency exercises. Waiting until the first operational use against US targets would be too late.

***

This is a brave new world where a disposable drone can checkmate a $24 million tank. In Ukraine, FPVs have bought time against Russia’s advance. In Mexico, their adoption by cartels could accelerate violence, destabilize regions, and threaten US border security.

The question is not whether cartels, or narco-MNCs, will experiment with FPVs—they already are. The question is how quickly the United States and its partners can adapt, anticipate, and counter this emerging threat. The diffusion of FPV technology underscores a sobering reality: the democratization of military power is no longer hypothetical. It is unfolding now, with profound consequences for security from Kyiv to Mexico City to Washington.

Now is the time for the United States to defend against the growing threat that the democratization of drone warfare poses to its southern border.

Stephen Honan is a fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Counterterrorism Project, a senior consultant for BVG and Company, and a former explosive ordnance disposal officer for the US Navy.

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Putin is escalating Russia’s hybrid war against Europe. Is Europe ready?

Maksym Beznosiuk — Tue, 23 Sep 2025 20:36:00 +0000

Russia and Belarus conducted large-scale military exercises in mid-September as the Kremlin sought to put on a show of strength close to NATO’s eastern flank. The Zapad-2025 exercises were part of broader Russian efforts to test NATO’s political and military reactions while sowing fear and uncertainty among the European population.

Although billed as defensive, the joint military exercises in Belarus sparked considerable alarm among the country’s European neighbors. The presence of Russian troops close to the Belarusian border with NATO and the European Union inevitably drew comparisons with the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which had been preceded by Russian military drills in Belarus. In an apparent bid to menace nearby NATO member states, this year’s exercises featured a simulated nuclear strike. Russian and Belarusian troops also trained with drones and robotic systems.

These military drills took place against a backdrop of mounting European disquiet over Russia’s apparent readiness to escalate its hybrid war against the West. Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine first began in 2014, the Kremlin has faced accusations of engaging in a wide variety of hostile acts across Europe, ranging from cyberattacks and disinformation to sabotage and assassinations. This campaign gained further momentum following the full-scale Russian invasion of February 2022. It may now be entering a dangerous new phase.

In recent weeks, the Kremlin has launched drones into Polish and Romanian airspace, while also sending warplanes into Estonian airspace above the Baltic Sea. On September 22, major airports in Norway and Denmark were forced to suspend operations due to suspicious drone activity. While the source of this sophisticated drone disruption has not yet been clarified, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Russian involvement cannot be ruled out.

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Russia’s recent actions reflect the ongoing integration of drones into the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare playbook as Moscow looks to raise the stakes in its confrontation with the democratic world. Since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, Moscow has been cheered by his efforts to reduce support for Ukraine and limit the US role in European security. Russia now appears intent on exploiting growing divides within the Western camp and intimidating Europe with thinly-veiled threats of possible drone bombardment.

European leaders must take the Russian drone threat seriously. Since 2022, the Kremlin has made drones one of the key components of Russia’s overall military strategy. Domestic production of bomber drones has increased dramatically over the past year in particular, making it possible for Russia to conduct mass bombing raids on Ukrainian cities featuring as many as 800 drones in a single night.

In addition to increased numbers, Russian drones are also undergoing significant upgrades. The most common form of kamikaze drone used by the Russian army is based on the Iranian Shahed model, but recent versions are significantly larger, faster, and more explosive. Russia has also implemented improved navigation and control systems, making the current generation of bomber drones far deadlier than their predecessors.

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At this stage, it appears that Russia is looking to assess NATO’s readiness to defend itself and is unlikely to be preparing any large-scale attacks. However, there is no time to waste. European countries cannot wait until Russia goes even further before addressing the urgent security concerns raised by the Kremlin’s drone diplomacy.

Crucially, this means learning from Ukraine’s unrivaled experience in defending against large-scale Russian drone attacks. Only Ukraine has the know-how to develop layered air defenses featuring ground-based missile systems, mobile gun crews, fighter jets, propeller planes, helicopters, and a rapidly expanding fleet of interceptor drones. Likewise, only Ukraine can offer practical tips on effective jamming and other electronic warfare strategies. These lessons make Ukraine an indispensable security partner for Europe.

NATO member states need to collectively establish realistic and unambiguous rules of engagement for cross-border drone and fighter jet incursions that provide maximum clarity for all countries, including Russia. The alliance’s somewhat improvised Eastern Sentry initiative along the NATO frontier with Russia should be expanded and given permanent status, with Ukraine fully integrated as a strategic partner. Europe should prioritize the production of cost-effective anti-drone technologies and invest in Ukrainian defense sector companies that are already producing key elements such as interceptor drones and electronic warfare tools.

Individual European countries also need to make sure civilian populations are protected against potential Russian drone attacks. This means checking existing bomb shelters. In many cases, it will no doubt be necessary to conduct comprehensive renovation works. By addressing this issue now rather than waiting for the next Russian escalation, governments can prevent panic and demonstrate that the security situation is under control.

Putin has clearly been encouraged by Trump’s efforts to downgrade America’s involvement in transatlantic security and feels emboldened to escalate his own hybrid war against Europe. For now, the Kremlin dictator appears to be focused on probing Europe’s responses and fueling insecurity across the continent. Looking ahead, his strategic objective is to split the Euro-Atlantic alliance and reduce support for Ukraine to minimal levels. If he succeeds, the threat to Europe will reach a new level entirely and the cost of stopping Russia will only rise.

Maksym Beznosiuk is a strategic policy specialist whose work focuses on Russia’s evolving military and hybrid strategy, EU-Ukraine cooperation, and Ukraine’s reconstruction.

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If the West fails to credibly deter further Kremlin escalations, this would have potentially disastrous consequences for international security. At stake is not only Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign state, but NATO’s continued existence as the main guarantor of peace and stability in Europe. A conventional Russian invasion of Poland or the Baltic states remains within the realm of possibilities if Moscow is successful in Ukraine. However, a far more likely scenario would be some kind of gray zone aggression on NATO’s eastern flank with the aim of discrediting the alliance’s core commitment to collective security.

This could take many forms. For example, Russia could launch a significantly larger drone attack against Poland. Alternatively, the Kremlin could stage a hybrid cross-border incursion into Estonia, utilizing the same kind of plausible deniability employed during the 2014 seizure of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. Moscow’s goal would be to demonstrate that the NATO alliance lacks the resolve to act on its collective security commitments, while remaining below the threshold that could trigger a full-scale war.

Even prior to the recent appearance of Russian drones over Poland, there were already ample indications that the scale of the threat posed by the Putin regime was not fully understood in Western capitals. Recent diplomatic efforts to end the invasion of Ukraine via some form of compromise peace deal suggest a fundamental misunderstanding of Russia’s maximalist war aims. Putin’s ambitions extend far beyond limited territorial gains in Ukraine; any attempt to appease him with “land swaps” will merely whet his imperial appetite and encourage further aggression.

Members of the so-called Coalition of the Willing led by France and the UK have spoken recently of providing Ukraine with “robust” security guarantees, but only after a ceasefire is in place. This gives the Kremlin dictator no incentive to back down. While Putin’s recent summer offensive in Ukraine has failed strategically, Russia continues to make marginal gains on the battlefield while mercilessly striking Ukrainian cities and civilians with drones and missiles. It is therefore imperative to compel the Kremlin to agree to a ceasefire first, separating this from discussions over security guarantees while retaining a commitment to both.

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A far more united, assertive, and multi-pronged approach is required in order to deter Russia. Western governments must make full use of the extensive economic leverage at their disposal. Washington and Brussels should seize Russia’s frozen assets and implement tougher sanctions that drastically cut Russia’s income from oil exports, including measures targeting Moscow’s shadow fleet of tankers. Applying additional secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions that facilitate the purchase of Russian oil will force buyers like India and China to comply with US sanctions or risk losing access to the global financial system.

At the same time, the US and Europe must ensure Ukraine becomes a “steel porcupine” capable of defending itself and deterring future Russian aggression on its own. This should involve guaranteed weapons deliveries, an end to all restrictions on Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia, increased intelligence sharing, and enhanced industrial cooperation between Western and Ukrainian defense companies, especially in terms of drone technologies and electronic warfare.

This combination of intensifying economic pressure on Russia and increased military support for Ukraine could set the stage for a ceasefire agreement. If this is achieved, the West must then unilaterally implement security guarantees and deploy troops from as many countries as possible to Ukraine to ensure maximum deterrence. Any deployments should take a layered approach. The initial step would be a monitoring mission on the line of contact, followed by the deployment of soldiers across Ukraine, along with air and naval patrols.

While American troops will almost certainly not be involved on the ground in Ukraine, it is vital that US President Donald Trump sticks to his commitment to back any reassurance force with continued intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance support, along with a potential aviation component. The Trump administration has successfully encouraged NATO members to spend more on defense and support Kyiv, but Trump’s skepticism toward alliances and his often ambiguous position on Ukraine increase the likelihood of a Russian challenge to NATO’s Article 5 in the near future.

Putin’s latest escalation in the skies over Poland is an unmistakable signal that NATO’s credibility is under threat. In order to reduce the potential for a larger European war, a new approach to engagement with the Kremlin that projects strength and resolve is clearly required. Failure to act accordingly will place the entire international security architecture in question, including the foundational principle that borders cannot be changed by force.

Zahar Hryniv is a Young Global Professional at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

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The appearance of Russian drones in the skies above Poland set off alarm bells in a number of European capitals. This trend toward greater insecurity can help drive the radicalization of European politics, which often means increased support for Kremlin-friendly parties on both the far-left and far-right of the political spectrum.

Fears over a mounting Russian threat could also divert attention and resources away from Ukraine, with Europeans growing less inclined to support the Ukrainian war effort and more concerned about their own security. In the aftermath of the recent drone incident, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland fueled by Moscow, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that Russia may be seeking to prevent the delivery of additional air defenses to Ukraine ahead of the winter season.

With the Western response to Russia’s drone raid still taking shape, it remains too early to draw any definitive conclusions. However, the mixed initial reaction from Western leaders is unlikely to have deterred the Kremlin. Rather than projecting unity and purpose, US President Donald Trump appeared to contradict many of his NATO allies by claiming that the large-scale Russian incursion into Polish airspace could have been “a mistake.”

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Russia’s drone escalation has revived the long-running debate over the possibility of a NATO-backed no-fly zone of some kind in Ukraine. Following the Kremlin’s aerial attack, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski became the latest figure to publicly voice his support for allied efforts to close the skies over Ukraine. Poland’s top diplomat argued that protecting Ukrainian airspace from Russian drone and missile attacks would also serve as the first line of defense for the rest of Europe.

This concept has been under discussion since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion but has so far failed to gain serious traction due to widespread Western fears of escalation. Skeptics have noted that any NATO jets deployed to Ukraine would immediately become targets for the Russians, creating the potential for a direct military confrontation between the alliance and the Kremlin. A single downed NATO aircraft over Ukraine or a destroyed anti-aircraft system on Russian territory could plunge Europe into a major crisis with unpredictable outcomes for international security.

Europe can minimize the risks associated with a no-fly zone by ruling out the deployment of fighter jet squadrons in Ukrainian airspace and focusing instead on boosting the number of ground-based air defense systems covering western Ukraine. Many systems could be positioned across the border and need not actually enter Ukraine at all.

Participating countries could also increase their support for Ukraine’s own layered air defenses, including Kyiv’s growing interceptor drone capabilities. This approach would strengthen the security of European airspace without the necessity of sending NATO pilots into combat.

Enhanced air defenses would not entirely neutralize the Russian threat but could succeed in creating significantly safer conditions for millions of Ukrainians along with citizens in neighboring EU states. While Moscow would inevitably protest over any increased European involvement, it would be hard for the Kremlin to argue convincingly that intercepting Russian drones and missiles constitutes an act of international aggression.

Recent events offer a clear precedent for a greater European role in Ukraine’s air defenses. Jets from multiple NATO countries shot down a number of the Russian drones that entered Polish airspace last week without sparking an escalation. There is therefore no reason to believe that expanding the no-fly zone into western Ukraine would suddenly spark World War III.

Ukraine also has an important role to play in efforts to strengthen Europe’s air shield. Following the recent Russian incursion into Polish airspace, European countries now recognize that they need to urgently study Ukraine’s unrivaled experience of defending against Russian missiles and drones. This process is already underway, with Poland looking to implement lessons learned by the Ukrainians over the past three and half years of regular Russian bombardment. Other countries will no doubt soon be joining the Poles in seeking the advice of Ukrainian air defense crews. Looking ahead, Ukraine’s unique air defense expertise must be fully integrated into NATO and EU security planning.

It should now be abundantly clear that Putin will continue to escalate until he is stopped. The Kremlin dictator’s imperial ambitions extend far beyond the conquest of Ukraine. To achieve his goals, he seeks to discredit NATO and divide Europe. Acting decisively through smart air defense, leveraging Ukrainian expertise, and deepening regional cooperation can help safeguard European security. If Western leaders continue to hesitate, Putin will grow bolder still and the cost of stopping Russia will only rise.

Alina Zubkovych is Head of the Nordic Ukraine Forum and Academic Director at the Kyiv School of Economics.

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Like many other NATO members, Poland has invested heavily in recent years in high-end air defense systems such as Patriots and F-35 warplanes. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has revealed a new kind of war that requires alternative solutions. Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion more than three and a half years ago, unmanned systems have emerged as the decisive weapon above the battlefield and have also been used extensively for longer range attacks on land and at sea.

With Russia and Ukraine locked in a relentless race to innovate, the Kremlin has prioritized the mass production of deadly strike drones capable of hitting targets hundreds of kilometers away. The number of drones involved in Russian aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities has risen dramatically over the past year from dozens to hundreds, with record waves in recent months featuring as many as eight hundred drones. Europe remains dangerously unprepared to address the unprecedented challenges posed by these large-scale Russian drone swarms.

Ukrainians have been advising their European colleagues for some time of the need to reassess their air defense strategies in line with the growing dominance of drones. Ukrainian drone warfare specialist Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, who leads the country’s Unmanned Systems Forces, warned in July 2025 that NATO commanders must urgently review their air defense doctrines in order to focus on the dangers posed by swarms of Russian attack drones.

Brovdi’s call to Kyiv’s Western partners and his offer to share Ukraine’s unique experience of drone warfare did not initially provoke much of a response. However, following Russia’s recent escalation in the skies above Poland, that may now be changing. Within days of the Russian drone incursion, Polish and Ukrainian officials announced plans for Ukraine to provide anti-drone training in Poland. Other NATO members are now expected to follow suit, reflecting Ukraine’s status as a leading authority on drone warfare.

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Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski is one of numerous senior European politicians to acknowledge the need for NATO countries to learn from Ukraine. “The Ukrainians have better equipment for dealing with Russian drones and more up-to-date experience,” he commented during a visit to Kyiv last week. “This is something that the public and governments in the West need to urgently integrate into their thinking. It is the Ukrainians who will be training us on how to stand up to Russia, not the other way around.”

US Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg echoed this sentiment, commenting on September 12 that Ukraine has emerged in recent years as a “world leader” in drone warfare. Noting that the evolution of drone technologies was changing the nature of modern war, Kellogg credited Ukraine with playing a leading role in this trend while acknowledging that other nations including the United States were now “well behind.”

In addition to offering air defense training to the country’s allies, Ukraine is also ready to help NATO partners identify and procure the necessary defensive tools to combat Russian drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently stressed that nobody in the world has enough missiles to shoot down the large volumes of drones currently being deployed by the Kremlin. Instead, a more eclectic approach is needed, featuring ground-based air defenses and jet fighters together with defensive drones, helicopter patrols, and propeller planes.

Ukraine has already developed and begun deploying a number of interceptor drones that serve as a cost-effective solution to Russia’s expanding swarms of strike drones. Work is now underway to increase production in order to keep pace with Russia’s growing output. Kyiv’s partners are engaged in these efforts. A new initiative was recently unveiled that will see Britain support Ukraine by mass producing interceptor drones based on existing Ukrainian technologies. This should make it possible to deliver thousands of drones to Ukraine every month.

Ukraine’s sophisticated anti-drone defenses will now set the standard for NATO as the alliance adjusts to the changing face of modern warfare and the mounting threat posed by Putin’s drones. At present, Putin is using drone incursions to test NATO and probe the alliance’s military and political responses, but his appetite for escalation has never been more apparent. European countries must therefore prepare to defend themselves against potential large-scale attacks involving hundreds of Russian drones. As they scramble to do so, Ukraine’s experience will prove absolutely indispensable.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

Belarus hosts Russian war games as Putin’s drones probe Poland

Hanna Liubakova — Thu, 11 Sep 2025 11:42:47 +0000

On September 12, Belarus will play host to Russia as the two countries stage their largest joint military exercises since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war games are set to begin against a backdrop of dramatically heightened regional tensions, coming just two days after at least nineteen Russian drones penetrated Polish airspace. Some of these Russian drones entered Poland via neighboring Belarus.

Polish and other NATO jets reportedly shot down a number of Russian drones in the skies above Poland early on September 10. This was the first time in NATO history that alliance fighter pilots have engaged Russian targets in allied airspace, officials stated. Addressing members of the Polish parliament in Warsaw, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the incident was “the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.”

Moscow’s decision to target Poland with drones was the latest in a series of alarming escalations by the Kremlin following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August summit meeting in Alaska with US President Donald Trump. This has served to significantly raise the stakes ahead of Russia’s military drills in Belarus. While the authorities in Minsk have sought to downplay the significance of the joint exercises, they are a timely reminder that Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka is a key accomplice in Russia’s war effort who poses a security threat to NATO’s eastern flank.

Even before this week’s unprecedented appearance of Russian drones over Poland, Belarus’s European neighbors were already stepping up security measures along the frontier. Lithuania and Poland are accelerating construction work on enhanced border defenses, while the Polish authorities have announced the closure of border crossings with Belarus during the military exercises, citing the risk of provocations tied to the drills.

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The “Zapad” military exercises, meaning “West” in Russian, are large-scale drills that have been jointly organized for a number of years by Russia and Belarus. The planned 2023 iteration was canceled as Russian troops and equipment were needed for the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. This year’s war games are set to be significantly smaller in scale that the 2021 exercises, which were used as cover for preparations ahead of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Following Russia’s recent drone incursion, NATO forces across the border from Belarus will be on high alert for any further escalations during the drills.

This week’s Zapad 2025 military exercises will underline the transformation of Belarus into a forward base for the Russian army and will further normalize Moscow’s military footprint in the country. Infrastructure for hosting Russian troops is already in place including missile facilities, fortified munitions depots, and expanded rail links. Almost 300 Belarusian state enterprises are also reportedly involved in the production of weapons or munitions for the Russian military.

Lukashenka has been steadily trading Belarusian sovereignty for regime security ever since 2020, when he became dependent on the Kremlin for his political survival following the brutal suppression of anti-regime protests across Belarus. Hosting Russian troops, supplying Putin’s war machine, and supporting the invasion of Ukraine are all part of this bargain. Russian backing has made it possible for Lukashenka to transform Belarus into an increasingly repressive dictatorship, with regime opponents exiled and over a thousand political prisoners currently behind bars.

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While Lukashenka has little choice but to continue playing the role of junior partner in Putin’s anti-Western crusade, there are signs that he may not be entirely comfortable with his current predicament. In fact, the Belarusian response to this week’s Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace says much about how cornered the Lukashenka regime has become.

Early on Wednesday morning, officials in Minsk reportedly contacted their Warsaw counterparts to offer advance warning that drones were heading their way from the direction of Belarus. Poland said this information was unexpected but helpful. “It was surprising that Belarus, which is really trying to escalate the situation on our land border, decided to cooperate in this way,” commented Polish military officials. While the Belarusians were ready to help the Poles, they also avoided blaming Russia directly for the incident, highlighting just how carefully Lukashenka is treading.

The message from Minsk seems straightforward. Lukashenka is desperate to demonstrate to his EU neighbors and the wider international community that he is not fully tied to Moscow’s war machine and can still act independently of the Kremlin. He is probing for geopolitical space and signaling a cautious openness to dialogue with the West, while trying to avoid provoking a furious response from his Russian patrons.

This should not be interpreted as a sudden thaw. Moscow will certainly fight to keep Belarus as a key pressure point against NATO for many years to come, and is in a position to do so. Over the past five years, Russia has managed to establish extensive levers of influence throughout Belarus’s political, military, business, and cultural establishments in a process that some have characterized as a “creeping annexation.” Meanwhile, Lukashenka may have earned a reputation as a wily political operator, but he will almost certainly always gravitate back toward the Kremlin, regardless of any overtures from the West.

Lukashenka’s room for maneuver is clearly limited. But at the same time, his fear of being dragged directly into Putin’s war against the West creates a potential opening for pragmatic diplomacy. The September 11 visit by a US delegation to Minsk, which secured the release of dozens of political prisoners, shows that this diplomatic path is already producing tangible results. Western governments should now build on this momentum to press Lukashenka harder for the release of all political prisoners and an end to the repression of domestic opponents.

Hanna Liubakova is a journalist from Belarus and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

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Russia depends heavily on oil and gas revenues to maintain the war effort and cover the rising cost of enticing new military recruits. The Kremlin requires a steady flow of manpower as it seeks to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses, but the Russian army’s reliance on frontal assaults virtually guarantees heavy losses. In order to sustain current troop levels, Russia is therefore forced to offer exceptionally high salaries and generous enlistment bonus payments.

Disruption within the oil and gas industry will not immediately impact Russia’s war economy, but it could force Putin to make difficult decisions. Since the start of the full-scale invasion more than three years ago, the Kremlin dictator has made it a priority to shield ordinary Russians from the impact of the war. If Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries continue, the Kremlin may have to cut spending elsewhere in order to finance the military, creating the potential for destabilization on the home front.

So far, Moscow is attempting to downplay the significance of Ukraine’s airstrikes, with Kremlin officials attributing fuel problems to other causes and blaming any obvious damage to refineries on falling drone debris. However, efforts are also underway to suppress news of successful Ukrainian attacks. This has reportedly included Orwellian announcements broadcast in public spaces informing Russians not to post footage of drone strikes on social media.

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Ukraine’s increased capacity to strike deep inside Russia reflects the progress made by Kyiv since 2022 in developing its own arsenal of long-range drones and missiles. During the initial stages of the full-scale invasion, the Ukrainians had only a handful of drones capable of conducting strikes across the border. The country is now reportedly producing thousands of long-range drones every month, and has recently unveiled a number of domestically produced cruise missiles with far greater payloads that could allow Ukraine to significantly escalate the current bombing campaign in the coming months.

The Ukrainian military is learning and improving with each new strike. Key refineries and weak points in Russia’s energy infrastructure are now being struck again and again in order to hinder repair works and compound the burden on Moscow’s energy logistics. When selecting targets, Ukrainian planners are also well aware of the Russian energy industry’s dependency on Western components, with sanctions often making it difficult for Moscow to source replacements.

Crucially, Ukraine’s bombing campaign is exploiting Russia’s size and taking advantage of the country’s already overstretched air defenses. Much of Russia’s existing air defense capacity is currently deployed in occupied regions of Ukraine and along the front lines of the invasion. This leaves a limited number of available systems to defend Russian cities and other high value targets such as the palaces of Putin and the Kremlin elite. By increasing the geographical range of its bombing raids, Ukraine is forcing Russia to further disperse its air defenses. This creates inviting gaps and leaves some targets undefended.

Even with dramatically enhanced air cover, it is likely that the Kremlin would still struggle to entirely nullify the threat of further airstrikes on the oil and gas sector. With dozens of refineries, storage facilities, and port terminals, together with thousands of kilometers of pipelines spread over eleven times zones, Russia’s energy industry may simply be too large to be adequately protected against aerial attack.

Officials in Kyiv recognize that the current air offensive will not prove decisive. Nevertheless, they hope Ukraine’s increasing ability to inflict serious damage on Russia’s energy sector can help persuade Putin to finally engage in peace talks. The Russian ruler seems completely unconcerned by the catastrophic casualties his army is suffering in Ukraine, but he may not find it so easy to ignore growing threats to the economic stability of Russia itself.

Many Ukrainians also see enhanced long-range strike capabilities as crucial for efforts to deter future Russian aggression. Russia’s size makes it a formidable foe but this scale also leaves the colossal country exposed to counterattack by a smaller opponent with an arsenal of weapons tailored to the task of giant-killing. As former Ukrainian defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov noted recently, “Ukraine is a David that tries to find Goliath’s weaknesses.”

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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Much of the discussion over security guarantees has focused on the deployment of a military contingent to Ukraine in order to help enforce and monitor any ceasefire agreement. However, the potential composition and exact role of such a force remain unclear. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently told the Financial Times that Europe has a “pretty precise” plan in place to send troops to Ukraine, but other senior European officials have since suggested that her comments were premature.

Europe appears to be divided over the issue of sending troops to Ukraine. France and Britain have committed to leading what is being called a reassurance force, with others including Sweden, Denmark, Belgium, and Lithuania signalling their readiness to also contribute soldiers. In contrast, Poland, Italy, Spain, and the Czech Republic have rejected the idea of deploying troops to Ukraine, while Germany has so far adopted a skeptical stance.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has ruled out the presence of American soldiers in Ukraine. Instead, discussions are reportedly underway over the possible participation of private US military companies as part of a long-term peace plan for Ukraine. American contractors could potentially perform a number of functions including the strengthening of Ukraine’s air defenses.

The key question regarding the presence of foreign troops on Ukrainian soil is whether they would be given a mandate to engage in combat operations. In other words, would European soldiers be allowed to fight back if attacked by Russia? Critics have noted that this is unlikely. Instead, they argue, any foreign troop contingent deployed to Ukraine would be largely symbolic with no meaningful military role.

International military involvement of some kind in the air and maritime domains may be more realistic. Ukrainian officials are hopeful that the country’s European partners will participate in air patrols to defend Ukraine against Russian drone and missile attacks. Allied countries may also contribute to the strengthening of Ukraine’s existing network of air defense systems. This could lead to significantly enhanced security over at least a portion of Ukraine’s skies, creating opportunities for the resumption of commercial flights and providing a safer environment for the civilian population.

Similar support in the Black Sea is also under discussion, with the Turkish navy expected to play a prominent role. With Russia’s Black Sea Fleet already weakened by Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, allied involvement could help safeguard maritime supply corridors and secure uninterrupted trade flows from Ukrainian ports. This would provide the country with an important economic boost and help ease the pressure on congested land routes via Poland and Romania.

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While Ukrainian officials will certainly welcome further talk of troops on the ground, air shields, and naval missions, any serious discussion of security guarantees must acknowledge that Western leaders are deeply reluctant to risk direct military confrontation with the Kremlin. With this in mind, Ukraine’s most realistic security strategy lies not in empty promises or symbolic deployments of foreign soldiers, but in strengthening the country’s own defense capabilities.

Kyiv’s top priorities in this context include securing the continued supply of US and European weapons, ongoing intelligence support, and increased international investment in the rapidly expanding Ukrainian defense industry. Integration into existing European security structures will be crucial, including full coordination of the Ukrainian military with foreign partners providing the aviation and naval components of any future security guarantees.

Greater cooperation between Ukrainian defense tech companies and their Western counterparts can also contribute to the process of strengthening security ties between Ukraine and the rest of Europe. Today’s Ukraine has unrivalled experience in drone warfare and numerous other aspects of the contemporary battlefield. This makes the country a strategic partner with much to offer its European neighbors.

At present, a strong Ukraine looks to be by far the most realistic deterrent against further Russian aggression. This will require extensive material support and binding long-term political commitments from Kyiv’s allies, but is unlikely to involve a major foreign military presence in Ukraine.

The benefits of backing Ukraine will be potentially far-reaching for Europe as a whole. A strengthened and integrated Ukrainian military can serve as a bastion of European security for years to come as the continent seeks to modernize its military and adapt to the new geopolitical realities of an isolationist United States and an expansionist Russia.

Elena Davlikanova is a senior fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis and Sahaidachny Security Center. Yevhen Malik is a veteran of the Ukrainian Army’s 36th Marine Brigade.

Ukraine’s unfolding bombing campaign is no mere act of righteous retribution, of course. The recent strikes against Russia’s oil industry infrastructure are designed to directly hit Putin’s war economy and undermine his ability to continue bankrolling the invasion of Ukraine. With Kyiv’s European and American allies seemingly reluctant to impose tougher sanctions measures against the Russian energy sector, Ukrainians see the current wave of drone attacks as a highly effective form of “direct sanctions.”

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The Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries since the beginning of August are part of a wider pattern. In recent weeks, Ukraine has also struck multiple military production sites inside Russia, along with a number of fuel trains and logistics hubs in areas close to the front lines of the war. On August 18, Ukrainian drones destroyed the pumping station for the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region, shutting down this strategically important element of the Kremlin’s energy infrastructure carrying Russian oil to European markets.

Ukraine’s leaders regard the country’s growing long-range strike potential as an important factor in efforts to force Russia to end its invasion and come to the negotiating table. During the early months of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine had only a very limited number of drones capable of reaching targets inside Russia. Over the past three and a half years, Kyiv’s long-range arsenal has expanded dramatically, making it possible to launch increasingly ambitious air offensives.

The latest addition to Ukraine’s arsenal is a domestically produced long-range cruise missile dubbed the “Flamingo.” This recently unveiled missile has a reported range of over 3000 kilometers and carries a massive warhead that dwarfs anything Ukraine’s long-range drones are currently capable of delivering. Zelenskyy recently confirmed that the missile has undergone successful testing and should enter mass production by the end of the current year.

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Ukraine’s ability to establish domestic cruise missile production should come as no surprise. The country had earlier played a central role in the Soviet missile program, with Ukrainian city Dnipro known informally throughout the Cold War as “Rocket City.”

The revival of this tradition now gives Kyiv a potential trump card in talks with Moscow. Even with the country’s current limited domestic drone and missile capabilities, Ukraine is already proving itself capable of inflicting serious damage on Russia’s economically vital energy sector. If Kyiv reaches its goal of mass produced long-range cruise missiles, the consequences for Russia’s refineries, ports, and pipelines could be catastrophic.

Ukraine’s accelerating deep strikes come at a time when the dominance of drones is making battlefield breakthroughs increasingly difficult to achieve. While the Russian army continues to grind forward in eastern Ukraine, it is advancing at glacial pace and has managed to capture less than one percent of Ukrainian territory in the past one thousand days while losing hundreds of thousands of soldiers.

The current technological realities of the war clearly favor the defenders. This leaves no obvious pathway toward a decisive Russian military victory in Ukraine. Kyiv policymakers are hoping that if Putin is confronted with a bloody stalemate in Ukraine and the prospect of mounting attacks inside Russia, he may be forced to rethink his current uncompromising stance and seek a settlement to end the invasion.

Historically, Russia’s sheer size has always been considered one of its main strengths. By launching waves of airstrikes across the country, Ukraine now intends to exploit this vastness and transform it into Russia’s greatest weakness. The Kremlin simply does not have enough air defense systems to protect thousands of potential military and energy targets spread across eleven time zones. The only question is whether Ukraine can produce drones and missiles in sufficient quantities to destroy Putin’s war machine. Based on the current trajectory, there is certainly cause for concern in the Kremlin.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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The increased use of ground robots by the Ukrainian military reflects an emphasis on innovation that has enabled Ukraine to counter Russia’s often overwhelming advantages in terms of conventional firepower and manpower. For example, since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion more than three years ago, Ukraine has dramatically increased domestic drone production and earned a reputation as a global leader in drone warfare.

Similar trends are now evident in the development and deployment of Ukrainian robotic systems on the modern battlefield. Earlier this year, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense officials said the country intends to produce up to 15,000 ground robots by the end of 2025. If this target is reached, it would represent a massive expansion in the use of Unmanned Ground Vehicles or UGVs.

Robotic systems are in many ways an ideal solution for Ukraine as the country seeks ways to leverage its proven tech prowess in order to defend itself in a grueling war of attrition against a far larger enemy. With the Russian invasion now in its fourth year, mobilizing sufficient troops to maintain the war effort is becoming an increasingly acute problem for the Ukrainian authorities amid high casualty rates and an alarming rise in the number of desertions. This has led to questions over how much longer the Ukrainian military can hold the current front lines, and is believed to be fueling optimism in Moscow that a decisive breakthrough may soon be possible.

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While robots can never completely replace humans on the battlefield, there are a range of front line functions that robotic systems are suitable for. At present, Ukraine’s growing robot army is most commonly used in a logistical role to deliver supplies to troops in the trenches. With drones now a ubiquitous feature above the battlefield, any soldiers or vehicles moving around close to the front lines immediately become targets. Tracked or wheel-mounted robotic systems make it possible to resupply forces without risking casualties.

Crucially, robotic systems can be used to evacuate soldiers. Since 2022, the dominance of drones has made it more difficult to withdraw the wounded from the battlefield. This has led to increased Ukrainian losses, with injured troops often unable to receive medical attention in a timely fashion. While robotic transports are also vulnerable to drone attack and can face a range of other technical obstacles, the use of such platforms for emergency evacuations does increase the chances of survival.

Ukraine is also developing robotic systems capable of playing more direct defensive and offensive roles in the combat zone. While soldiers are still needed to guard trenches and consolidate any territorial gains, armed robots can potentially help maintain defensive positions and prevent Russian advances. This could reduce Ukraine’s reliance on dwindling manpower reserves and limit casualties.

Volunteers and private companies are playing an important part in efforts to develop new robotic models and integrate them into the Ukrainian military. They are faced with an array of practical challenges. In addition to securing the necessary funding and resources, it can also be difficult to provide training for military personnel who are desperately needed for combat duty.

While Ukraine’s senior military and political leadership are believed to appreciate the potential benefits of robotic systems, some field commanders reportedly remain reluctant to embrace new technologies. This legacy of the Soviet past has led to an uneven picture at different points along the line of contact, with many Ukrainian brigades able to invest time and money into developing and deploying robotic systems while others receive only limited access.

In order to fully capitalize on the promise of Ukraine’s robotic ground systems, more support must come from the Ukrainian government and the country’s international partners. Foreign investment is also needed to help Ukrainian developers boost output. Meanwhile, front line units must be given the resources and flexibility to train soldiers in the use of new unmanned systems, with commanders empowered to identify and prioritize the most effective robotic solutions.

Ukraine’s rapid wartime defense tech progress is driving the expansion of the country’s robot army. This is helping to address manpower shortages across the front and allowing the Ukrainian military to at least partially compensate for Russia’s greater resources and far larger population.

With the right investment and technical support, robotic systems could become a key element guaranteeing Ukraine’s national security and protecting the country against further Russian aggression. In order to reach that point, Kyiv and its partners must act quickly to scale up production and integrate new robotic technologies along the front lines of the war.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

The time for talk may soon be over. Numerous NATO member countries are already warning that Russia could be in a position to attack the alliance within the coming five years. By almost any measure, Europe is not currently ready to face this threat. With clock now ticking, the continent’s leaders must urgently expand defense sector production while also revising outdated defense doctrines.

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Ukraine is uniquely positioned to help Europe meet the mounting security challenges posed by a revisionist and expansionist Russia. After all, Ukraine has already been defending Europe’s eastern frontier for more than a decade following Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea and invasion of the Donbas region. Since February 2022, the country has been the scene of the largest European war since World War II.

The past eleven years of Russian aggression have transformed Ukraine into one of Europe’s leading military powers. Today, the Ukrainian army features around one million battle-hardened men and women, dwarfing the armed forces of its European neighbors. Kyiv’s EU and US partners need to recognize that this unrivaled experience of the twenty-first century battlefield makes Ukraine a key contributor to the future of European security.

Ukraine brings much more to the table than mere numbers. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian defense industry has expanded dramatically and is capable of further growth. The country has also emerged as a global innovator in a number of defense tech segments ranging from attack drones to cyber security.

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Ukraine currently serves as the ideal testing ground for the American and European weapons systems of tomorrow. Ukraine’s successful deployment of Western defense technologies such as the Patriot air defense system has led to a number of historic breakthroughs that have made significant operational upgrades possible. Growing numbers of cutting edge European and American defense sector companies are already present in Ukraine, developing partnerships and testing their products in combat conditions.

Meanwhile, US security support for Kyiv is keeping the country’s defense contractors busy, creating thousands of jobs and contributing billions of dollars in tax revenues to the United States budget. Similar processes are underway across Europe as the impact of Russia’s full-scale invasion helps to reverse decades of defense industry neglect.

Ukraine’s rapidly evolving drone industry deserves a special mention. Since 2022, Ukrainian drone production has increased dramatically to millions of drones per year. This progress has helped Ukraine counter Russia’s often overwhelming battlefield advantages in terms of firepower and manpower, while also transforming the Battle of the Black Sea in Kyiv’s favor and enabling long-range strikes against targets deep inside Russia.

In June 2025, Ukraine conducted an unprecedented attack involving simultaneous remotely coordinated drone strikes on a number of airbases across Russia. This landmark operation was carried out at a fraction of the cost of traditional missile systems, underlining how Ukraine is shaping the future of drone warfare. Indeed, Ukrainian innovation is now pushing the entire global defense industry to evolve and rethink future plans.

At a time when the rest of Europe is struggling to adjust to a rapidly changing security environment, Ukraine stands out. Over the past decade, Ukrainians have developed the mindset, resilience, and self-confidence to function effectively as a front line democracy in an increasingly insecure world. They know what it means to mobilize society in response to an existential threat, and understand the nature of modern war. These attributes make Ukraine a valuable partner for the United States and key contributor to the future defense of Europe.

Oleksiy Goncharenko is a member of the Ukrainian Parliament with the European Solidarity party.

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Those who question Russia’s ability to attack NATO typically point to the underwhelming performance of the Russian army in Ukraine. They note that the current invasion has exposed the limitations of Putin’s war machine and argue that Russia would have no chance in any direct confrontation with the far more formidable forces of the NATO alliance. This is true enough, but it assumes that Russia’s only option is to launch a conventional war against NATO. In reality, a future Russian attack would be far more likely to employ hybrid warfare tactics or rely on the Kremlin’s rapidly evolving drone warfare capabilities.

One possible scenario would involve a limited Russian cross-border incursion into the Baltics under the pretext of protecting the ethnic Russian population in countries like Estonia or Latvia. The strategic calculation behind such a move would be to test NATO’s resolve, betting that the alliance might avoid a direct military confrontation and instead resort to diplomacy. If the alliance chose not to respond militarily, it would seriously undermine the credibility of NATO’s core commitment to collective defense.

This outcome looks all too plausible when considered in the context of Russia’s recent ability to intimidate NATO countries and limit Western military support for Ukraine. The West’s excessive caution since 2022 has already emboldened Putin, encouraging him to escalate the invasion of Ukraine and expand his territorial demands. Crucially, this Western weakness may also have convinced Putin that Russia’s enemies lack the requisite resolve for a direct military confrontation and will always ultimately back down.

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Russia’s overwhelming current advantage in drone manufacturing is another key factor that may persuade Putin to move against NATO sooner rather than later. Over the past three years, Russia has built up an extensive domestic drone industry that is now producing thousands of units each month. This is already evident in Ukraine, with nightly bombardments involving more than 500 drones becoming a routine feature of the war. Russian drones are also undergoing constant technological upgrades to become deadlier and more difficult to intercept.

In contrast, NATO nations lag far behind. Drone production across the alliance remains fragmented. Meanwhile, the drones that are available are often outdated and poorly integrated into broader military structures. Unlike Ukraine and Russia, no European army has established a dedicated unmanned aerial force component. Instead, major NATO exercises still tend to treat drones as tactical novelties rather than the decisive weapons of the modern battlefield. While the rapid rise of drone warfare is no secret, it would certainly seem that many NATO commanders have not yet fully digested the lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War.

The situation in terms of missile production is similar. While Western output is still extremely modest, Russia is now able to produce hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles every month. Increasingly, Russian rockets feature new modifications that allow them to evade Western air defense technologies such as the Patriot system. These dramatic advances in Russia’s drone and missile arsenal give the Kremlin a significant edge over NATO that Moscow may wish to exploit before the gap closes.

Putin is also likely to view the current geopolitical climate as being exceptionally favorable for Russia. US President Donald Trump has raised serious questions over his readiness to defend America’s NATO allies. Other members of the alliance are cranking up defense spending, but the process still lacks a sense of urgency. While Baltic and Nordic countries are taking important steps like withdrawing from earlier treaties banning the use of anti-personnel mines and digging defensive trench networks close to the Russian border, these efforts are relatively isolated.

A conventional armed conflict between Russia and NATO remains unlikely, but the Kremlin can choose from a range of options that stop short of full-scale war while serving Russian interests. At present, Russia’s objective is not seizing NATO territory but causing the collapse of the alliance. This can be achieved by taking advantage of NATO’s reluctance to risk war with Russia, and by capitalizing on the alliance’s slow response to the growing dominance of drone warfare. The Kremlin can also easily escalate its existing hybrid war against the West including cyber attacks, information offensives, sabotage operations, and targeted assassinations.

By defending itself so effectively against Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has already bought NATO precious time. Looking ahead, the Ukrainian military can play a key role in bolstering European security thanks to the country’s unrivaled experience of modern drone warfare and other military innovations. However, Kyiv cannot instill the necessary political will in European capitals or convince Ukraine’s allies to treat the Russian threat with the seriousness it deserves. That must come from Western leaders themselves.

Elena Davlikanova is a senior fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis and Sahaidachny Security Center. Yevhenii Malik is a veteran of the Ukrainian Army’s 36th Marine Brigade.

Ukraine’s recovery cannot wait until Russia’s invasion is over

Anna Morgan — Thu, 17 Jul 2025 13:20:57 +0000

There was something slightly surreal about attending the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome on July 10-11 and talking about reconstruction while my hometown, Kyiv, and many other Ukrainian cities were under relentless Russian bombardment. This jarring reality has helped fuel a degree of scepticism toward the entire concept of staging a recovery conference in the midst of a full-scale war. Some of the criticism aimed at the URC is valid, but much of the negativity misses the bigger picture.

The 2025 URC event was the largest so far in terms of participants and featured solid high-level representation, with national leaders including Georgia Meloni, Friedrich Merz, Pedro Sanchez, Donald Tusk, Maia Sandu, and Petr Pavel among the speakers. All reiterated their backing for the Ukrainian war effort and their support for Ukraine’s EU membership bid. Dozens of agreements were signed pledging international aid and investment.

The size of this year’s conference was particularly significant. Over 6,000 delegates spent two days making connections, sharing experiences, finding new partners, or simply expanding the community of people interested in making Ukraine a success story.

In just two days, I met a wide range of people engaged in efforts to build a better Ukraine. This included Ukrainian veterans leading rehabilitation initiatives, charities expanding their operations in Ukraine, American business owners trying to bring green energy facilities to Ukraine, and Ukrainian architects designing underground shelters. Many law firms were present, offering advice to companies seeking to enter the Ukrainian market. New relationships established in Rome could end up bringing a wide range of benefits to Ukraine.

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The scale of destruction and trauma in today’s Ukraine is daunting. Dozens of towns and cities lie in ruins. Millions have been forced to flee their homes. Every fifth person is a veteran or has a family member who has served in the armed forces, while between 30 and 50 percent of the Ukrainian population require mental health support. Addressing these unprecedented challenges will require huge effort and bold solutions.

Clearly, the top priority is to defend Ukraine and prevent further destruction and loss of life. For the first time, this year’s conference featured a focus on military issues including defense tech innovation and investment in key areas such as drone production. Many participants reiterated that Europe as a whole cannot be truly secure without Ukrainian victory.

Europeans are also increasingly acknowledging the need to learn from Ukraine as they look to defend themselves against the mounting threat posed by Russia. Slowly but surely, the rhetoric is shifting away from humanitarian support for Ukraine as a country under attack, toward recognition of the need to invest in Ukraine as a country that will play a vital role in the future of European security. This change in tone was on full display in Rome.

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Not everything about this year’s conference was ideal. The event would benefit from an extended schedule lasting more than two days. It would also help to have fewer overlapping sessions. The current format meant impressive initiatives often only received a few minutes of attention. Meanwhile, lack of audience interaction felt like a missed opportunity given the thousands of well-informed and experienced professionals in attendance from a diverse range of sectors and different countries.

Perhaps the most striking aspect of this year’s conference was the human dimension. Key themes included the return of refugees, engagement with the Ukrainian diaspora, integration of internally displaced people, and the need for Ukrainian society to prepare for the eventual reintegration of hundreds of thousands of military veterans. Participants also discussed labor shortages and investment in Ukraine’s education system.

My overall conviction is that the Ukraine Recovery Conference has immense value in strengthening Ukraine today and shaping the country’s future. Russia is trying to destroy Ukraine by inflicting death by a thousand cuts. “We need to find 1000 partnerships that will allow Ukraine to persevere in this war of attrition, achieve technological and strategic breakthroughs, and ultimately win this war,” noted my Chatham House colleague Orysia Lutsevych. The URC format can help do just that.

Supporting Ukraine’s wartime recovery and reconstruction is a good way to boost resilience by giving Ukrainians a greater sense of confidence in the future. Crucially, this approach also helps provide urgently needed practical support in a timely fashion. Neither Ukraine nor the country’s partners can afford to wait until the war is over before addressing the many profound security, economic, and social issues arising from Russia’s invasion. The Ukraine Recovery Conference is the best tool to facilitate this process.

Anna Morgan is manager of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House.

Russia’s bombing campaign is killing record numbers of Ukrainian civilians

Peter Dickinson — Mon, 14 Jul 2025 10:33:17 +0000

As Russia’s bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities continues to intensify, the civilian death toll is rapidly rising. June 2025 saw the highest monthly casualties among the Ukrainian civilian population in more than three years, according to new data from the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. Losses included 232 deaths with a further 1343 Ukrainians injured, UN officials reported.

This sharp rise in Ukrainian civilian casualties is the result of a Russian air offensive that has expanded dramatically in scope since late 2024. During June, the number of drones and missiles launched at Ukrainian targets was ten times higher than the volume one year earlier.

“Civilians across Ukraine are facing levels of suffering we have not seen in over three years,” commented UN Monitoring Mission head Danielle Bell. “The surge in long-range missile and drone strikes across the country has brought even more death and destruction to civilians far away from the frontline.”

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The trend of increasingly deadly Russian bombardments continues to gain momentum at an alarming rate with a series of record-breaking aerial attacks in early July, each featuring more than 500 drones along with cruise and ballistic missiles. Based on the current trajectory, analysts warn that Russia will soon be able to conduct regular bombing raids involving in excess of 1000 drones.

Russia has managed to increase the scale of its bombing operations thanks to progress made since 2023 in the domestic production of drones. During the first year of the full-scale invasion, Iran supplied Russia with the long-range Shahed drones used to bomb Ukraine. Moscow has since reduced its reliance on the Iranians by securing the necessary Shahed drone blueprints from Tehran and establishing production lines inside the Russian Federation.

A growing number of dedicated Russian facilities are now manufacturing thousands of drones each month for the invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin has reportedly imported laborers from a number of Asian and African countries to bolster the workforce in these factories. China has also been accused of providing vital components in large quantities.

In addition to ongoing increases in output, Russia has also introduced a series of upgrades to Iran’s Shahed drones. The most recent models are faster and able to operate at higher altitudes, making them significantly more difficult to intercept. They are equipped with video cameras and in some cases utilize AI technologies, paving the way for autonomous flight operation and target selection. Crucially, the new generation of Russian bomber drones can also carry much larger warheads, leading to far greater destruction and loss of life.

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The escalation in Russia’s air war comes as Putin’s army struggles to make progress on the ground while suffering catastrophic losses. The Russian military has held the battlefield initiative since early 2024, but has managed to seize less than one percent of additional Ukrainian territory during this period, raising doubts over Putin’s ability to achieve his maximalist war aims. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently reported that the Russian army had lost over 100,000 soldiers during the first half of 2025 alone.

With no sign of an imminent breakthrough along the frontlines of the war, Putin’s bombardment strategy appears aimed at terrorizing the Ukrainian civilian population and undermining the country’s will to resist. The US-based Institute for the Study of War recently assessed that Russia’s ongoing large-scale air strikes seek to degrade Ukrainian and Western morale while underscoring Ukraine’s need for continued Western support.

Ukrainian officials have reached similar conclusions regarding the Kremlin’s intentions. “The Russians are intensifying terror against cities and communities to increasingly intimidate our people,” commented Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on July 13. “Russian terror against the rear is an attempt to break the nation,” stated Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office. “Russia can’t achieve Putin’s goals on the frontline, so it keeps targeting civilians.”

The recent geographical expansion of Russia’s nightly bombing raids certainly seems to support these claims and appears designed to demoralize the entire Ukrainian population by sending a message that nowhere in Ukraine is now safe. Key targets in early July included cities in western Ukraine that had little previous experience of major bombardment such as Lutsk and Chernivtsi.

Ukraine is now seeking to address Russia’s terror bombing strategy with a combination of technological innovation, expanded military capabilities, and increased Western support. While additional air defense systems like US-made Patriots are a priority, Kyiv is developing and testing its own domestically produced interceptor drones as the most cost-effective way to combat Russia’s massive drone raids.

Long-range weapons are also vital as Ukraine seeks to strike back. Some commentators believe Ukraine can never have enough air defenses to neutralize the threat posed by Russia’s ever-expanding bombardments. They argue that the only way to stop Putin from bombing Ukrainian cities is by boosting Ukraine’s ability to hit targets deep inside Russia including production facilities and launch sites.

With Putin’s war machine cranking out missiles and drones in even greater quantities, larger Russian raids in the coming months are inevitable. The Ukrainian authorities must urgently come up with effective solutions before the civilian death toll rises further. Putin appears to believe he can bomb Ukraine into submission. While there is currently no indication that the civilian population is approaching breaking point, the horror of Russia’s increasingly deadly air raids is weighing heavy on the war-weary nation.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Aerial drones are only part of Ukraine’s expanding unmanned arsenal. The Ukrainian military uses ground drones to storm enemy trenches, deliver supplies to the front lines, and evacuate wounded soldiers from hot spots. At sea, Ukrainian marine drones have forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to abandon its home base in Russian-occupied Crimea. Remarkably, Ukrainian marine drones armed with missiles have also reportedly managed to destroy Russian helicopters and fighter jets. Together, these air, land, and sea drones are able to threaten every part of Putin’s war machine.

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So far, drones have helped Ukraine to hold the line against Russia’s invasion. But holding is not winning. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is catching up. Indeed, rapidly growing domestic production of Shaheds and unjammable fiber optic drones have recently allowed Russia to seize the initiative from Ukraine in the drone war. In order to reverse this trend and open up a pathway toward ending Russia’s invasion, Kyiv’s Western partners must help Ukraine dramatically scale up drone production.

This year, Ukraine aims to produce around four million drones of all types, more than double last year’s total. Partner countries also plan to expand deliveries. A twenty-nation Drone Coalition co-chaired by Latvia and the UK has pledged €2.75 billion to supply an additional one million drones in 2025. However, progress has been slow as members rely on their own limited drone production capabilities.

The so-called Danish model of military aid offers a faster and more cost-effective alternative. Under this approach, Copenhagen pools donor funds, including windfall interest from frozen Russian assets, to procure drones and other military equipment directly from Ukrainian manufacturers. Total disbursements via this streamlined pipeline are expected to reach €1.5 billion in 2025.

Even if Kyiv and Western partners meet their current targets, overall output of around five million drones is only half the annual total necessary to shift the battlefield balance in Ukraine’s favor. With ten million drones per year, Ukraine could maximize the power of drone swarms to overwhelm Russia’s air defenses and knock out supply lines faster than Moscow could patch them up. This could realistically alter the course of the war and force Putin to retreat.

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Ukraine’s drone industry has already demonstrated that it can scale up production quickly and cheaply. What started as garage tinkering using mostly Chinese-imported parts has evolved into a robust industry relying primarily on domestic and Western components. For several years, Ukraine has been mass-producing drones that rival Western models in effectiveness at a fraction of the cost.

Innovation cycles are equally impressive. Thanks to rapid battlefield feedback and streamlined procurement, Ukraine’s agile approach to innovation easily surpasses the far slower development cycles in the West. New drone variants roll off production lines in weeks rather than months. Airframes produced by industrial-grade 3D printers enable rapid prototyping and redesign without costly retooling.

Ukrainian officials have repeatedly stressed that the country has the spare capacity to produce drones in far greater numbers. They estimate that scaling up drone production from current levels to ten million units per year is realistic but would require an additional €10 billion over two years. To meet that goal, Ukraine’s allies should launch a dedicated drone initiative.

This initiative would draw on the Danish model, with funding for Ukrainian drone production coming from a variety of sources including bilateral grants, windfall interest from frozen Russian assets, and low-interest loans from the EU’s SAFE instrument, which aims to bolster Europe’s defense-related industrial capacity. Most orders would flow directly to Ukraine’s drone manufacturers, significantly reducing costs, cutting delivery times, and minimizing logistical risks.

In parallel, the EU should rapidly establish a unified defense market that includes Ukraine. This means integrating Kyiv into the European innovation ecosystem and fostering collaboration between Western industry and Ukraine’s vibrant defense tech ecosystem. Ukrainian drone producers would gain from European orders and investments, while the EU would benefit from Ukraine’s battle-tested technologies, production capacity, and agile innovation mindset. Strengthening Ukraine as an allied drone superpower is clearly a strategic investment in the continent’s long-term security.

History shows that transformative technologies define entire eras of warfare. Artillery was the decisive weapon during World War I, while tanks, combined with air power, ruled the battlefield a generation later in World War II. The 1991 Gulf War marked the next leap: The ascendancy of precision-guided air power.

Today, the dominance of drones is rewriting military doctrine and looks set to shape conflicts for years to come. Ukraine has the technology, talent, and industrial potential to prevail in the war with Russia, but currently lacks the funding to scale drone production to the necessary levels.

Failure to act now will prolong the war in Ukraine, erode Western security, and embolden autocrats worldwide. The stakes have never been higher; the solution has rarely been clearer. The young Ukrainian drone operators in that dimly lit command room understand this very well. Ukraine’s Western partners must now also grasp the new military realities. By funding a massive Ukrainian drone surge, they can thwart Russia’s invasion and safeguard Europe.

Mark Boris Andrijanič is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a member of the Governing Board of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology, and a former Minister for Digital Transformation of Slovenia.

Ukraine Recovery Conference: Europe underlines long-term commitment

Edward Verona — Sun, 13 Jul 2025 12:04:29 +0000

The 2025 Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome has provided a clear demonstration of continued European commitment to Ukraine. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni rolled out the red carpet for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Rome on July 10, with more than a dozen European heads of government also attending the two-day event. Altogether, more than 4000 participants were registered, representing forty international organizations and hundreds of private sector companies.

In opening remarks, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set the stage by declaring that Europe was at Ukraine’s side “militarily, financially, and politically,” and would be there “for as long as it takes.” She noted that Europe had already provided €165 billion in financial assistance, with more to come as further military aid is allocated to Ukraine under Europe’s newly-launched €800 billion Defense Readiness Plan.

The EU Commission head unveiled a number of specific steps in support of Ukraine. These included a new €3 billion general financing facility, a €1 billion micro financing fund, and €10 billion in private sector deals. A European Flagship Fund is also being created to mobilize private sector equity investment in Ukraine.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz addressed part of his remarks to three leaders not present at the conference in Rome. The message for Vladimir Putin was “we will not give up” in support of Ukraine. Merz then warned Slovakian President Robert Fico not to delay approval of the EU’s eighteenth Russia sanctions package. Crucially, the German leader also called on US President Donald Trump to “stay with us on this common stage of history.”

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In his address to the conference, Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of ongoing military assistance, especially the strengthening of Ukraine’s air defenses. This point was underscored by the massive Russian drone and missile bombardment of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities on the eve of the conference. Zelenskyy argued that Russia’s escalating aerial attacks are further evidence of Putin’s intention to continue the war, highlighting the need for additional military support.

The Ukrainian leader proposed the creation of a drone coalition in which Ukraine could share its technological achievements with Western partners in return for investment in Ukrainian drone production. Looking ahead, he invoked the spirit of the post-World War II Marshall Plan and welcomed the participation of companies from friendly countries in Ukraine’s reconstruction. In an unmistakable reference to China, he added that “those countries which have supported Russia” in its war against Ukraine would not be welcome.

One hot topic raised by Zelenskyy and discussed throughout the conference was the need to use the roughly $300 billion in frozen Russian assets currently held in Europe to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. This discussion took place amid concerns that the authority to hold these funds may not be renewed, which could lead to control automatically reverting back to Russia.

Using frozen Russian assets is an appealing option as it would reduce the financial burden on Ukraine and the country’s Western partners. However, there remains significant reluctance to proceed amid concerns over potential Russian retaliation or a possible loss of international confidence in Western financial institutions.

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A key focus of the two-day conference was the role of the private sector in Ukraine’s recovery. Companies in the energy, logistics, military technology, and critical minerals sectors were strongly represented.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko cited a pipeline of 800 viable projects and the availability of war risk insurance from a number of bilateral programs. Risk mitigation is a major component of the Ukrainian government’s economic strategy, including the streamlining of investment rules. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s EU accession process is moving forward quickly and is expected ensure greater transparency, judicial independence, and the rule of law.

US businesses eagerly awaited further news about the much touted minerals deal signed by Ukraine and the United States on April 30. A delegation from the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC) was on hand to provide some clarification of the deal and the associated US-Ukraine Partnership Fund. “The deal is real,” one DFC representative stated in response to skepticism among some observers.

According to the DFC, the aim of the fund is not to crowd out investors from other countries, but rather to attract investment from all sources. The United States and Ukrainian governments will jointly contribute to and administer the fund, while withdrawals will not begin for a decade.

The DFC will maintain its customary underwriting standards when approving investments submitted to the fund, including those for the environment, labor rights, and anti-corruption measures. This should benefit investors and reinforce the Ukrainian government’s drive toward greater transparency and a level playing field for all.

Ukrainian officials expressed satisfaction with the terms of the minerals deal, while both sides stressed that operational details were still being worked out. A DFC speaker said they hope to have all remaining issues resolved “by the end of the year.” This seemed to be somewhat at variance with the overall theme of the conference that “the time to invest in Ukraine is now.”

Edward Verona is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center covering Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe, with a particular focus on Ukrainian reconstruction aid.

Cautious optimism in Ukraine as Trump vows to send more weapons

Peter Dickinson — Tue, 08 Jul 2025 19:47:45 +0000

Ukrainians have welcomed US President Donald Trump’s July 7 announcement that he intends to provide their country with more weapons. However, it remains unclear exactly what the US leader has in mind or whether this latest statement represents a major policy shift away from his longstanding reluctance to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s ongoing invasion.

Trump’s comments came one week after news broke of a partial pause in US military aid to Ukraine, a decision that sparked considerable alarm in Kyiv and among Ukraine’s European allies. White House officials framed the pause on shipments of crucial weapons categories as an attempt to “put America’s interests first” following a Pentagon review of military stockpiles that reportedly revealed potential shortfalls.

Trump unveiled his apparent U-turn over military aid for Ukraine in Washington DC on Monday evening. “We are going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very hard now,” he commented. According to Trump, the new military deliveries will primarily focus on defensive weapons.

This abrupt change in Trump’s position followed on from two very different phone calls with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. Last Thursday, Trump came away from a long conversation with Vladimir Putin voicing his disappointment and expressing frustration at the Kremlin dictator’s evident determination to continue the war. One day later, The American and Ukrainian leaders held what both sides praised as a friendly and productive call that raised hopes of continued US support for Ukraine in crucial areas such as air defense.

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Efforts to end the bloodshed in Ukraine have dominated US foreign policy during the first six months of the Trump presidency. Critics have accused the US leader of being too eager to offer Russia concessions while maintaining an uncompromising stance toward Ukraine.

Following Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially struggled to find common ground with the new US administration. The relationship got off to a disastrous start, with Trump branding Zelenskyy a dictator and blaming him for starting the war with Russia. The nadir came in late February, when an Oval Office meeting degenerated into a shouting match that saw Trump accuse Zelenskyy of “gambling with World War III.”

Zelenskyy has since taken a number of steps to improve bilateral ties. He has repeatedly praised Trump in public, has backed a US proposal for an unconditional thirty-day ceasefire, and has signed off on a minerals deal that grants American businesses preferential access to Ukraine’s natural resources. Meanwhile, Putin has shown no interest in peace. Instead, he has engaged in transparent stalling tactics and issued a series of maximalist demands while dramatically escalating the bombardment of Ukrainian civilians.

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There was a degree of guarded optimism in Ukraine on Tuesday morning following Trump’s talk of new weapons deliveries. While the rollercoaster experience of the past half year has left many deeply cynical about the likelihood of further US support, some Ukrainians also saw a certain logic behind Trump’s sudden change in tone. After all, it is now painfully obvious that Putin does not intend to end the war and has been stringing his American counterpart along for months.

Golos Party leader and member of the Ukrainian Parliament Kira Rudik was one of numerous Ukrainian public figures to suggest that Trump may have finally run out of patience with Putin. “President Trump said the US will send more weapons to Ukraine,” she stated. “This is good news for us, but bad news for Russia. No one will endure Putin’s games forever. It is time to strike back.”

Others underlined that US support for Ukraine remains very much in America’s national interests. Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak noted that by denying Russia victory in Ukraine, the United States could prevent a more general European war in the coming years. “The most significant benefit comes from reducing the likelihood of Russian aggression against other European nations,” he commented. “By stopping Putin in Ukraine today, the White House avoids the astronomical future costs of defending NATO allies tomorrow.”

The initial response from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense was somewhat more cautious. While expressing appreciation for continued US support, ministry officials stressed the need for greater clarity. It was “critically important” for Ukraine to maintain “stability, continuity, and predictability” in the delivery of military aid, especially air defense systems, a statement from the ministry read.

More details are likely to emerge in the coming days as senior Ukrainian and US officials meet on the sidelines of this week’s Ukraine Recovery Conference, which is taking place in Rome. Any additional military support from the United States will certainly be welcome, but many in Kyiv will also be looking for further signals that Trump now recognizes the need to get tough with Russia.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

The recent shift in the drone war is a matter of both quantity and quality. Russia is now producing far more drones and has developed new models incorporating a range of technological upgrades. This is making it possible to launch massive bombardments of Ukrainian cities that overwhelm Ukraine’s limited air defenses and terrorize the civilian population.

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Since 2022, drones have emerged as the key weapon for both sides in the war unleashed by Vladimir Putin. Ukraine’s drone manufacturing ecosystem has mushroomed from a handful of businesses to more than two hundred companies. This expansion has helped fuel innovation and strengthened the country’s defenses, but the large number of market participants means scaling up successful innovations can be challenging.

In contrast, Russia has played to its traditional strengths by focusing on volume. Moscow was initially reliant on Iran for the delivery of Shahed drones, but soon established domestic manufacturing facilities in Tatarstan and elsewhere. These drone factories have reportedly imported workers from Africa and Asia, and are now producing more than 5000 drones per month.

Alongside increases in output, Russian strike drones have also undergone a series of upgrades. For example, some recently intercepted models incorporate AI technologies that allow them to operate autonomously, while most have larger warheads and are able to fly at far higher altitudes, making them much harder to intercept.

This is translating into Russian aerial attacks on an unprecedented scale. Throughout spring and early summer 2025, Ukrainian cities faced a succession of record-breaking bombardments. At present, Russia is able to launch more than 500 drones at Ukraine in a single night. Based on current trajectories, Ukrainian analysts warn that 1000-drone Russian aerial attacks may soon become a reality.

The tactics shaping Russia’s drone bombing campaign are also evolving. Overnight raids now routinely incorporate hundreds of upgraded Shahed drones converging on Ukrainian targets from different directions, followed by waves of ballistic and cruise missiles. Putin hopes this approach will exhaust Ukraine’s limited air defenses while inflicting severe physical and psychological damage on the Ukrainian civilian population.

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It is clear that Ukraine urgently requires innovative defense tech solutions to address the challenges posed by Russia’s dramatically escalating drone attacks. It will also be vital to address bureaucratic inefficiencies and streamline government procurement processes. Ukraine has the brains to defend itself as long as the authorities in Kyiv make the most of the country’s tech sector potential.

The top priority should be scalable and economically viable systems capable of intercepting large numbers of Russian attack drones. Sophisticated anti-missile weapons such as the US-produced Patriot system are too expensive and in too short supply for use against plentiful and cheaply produced Russian drones.

Many see interceptor drones as the most technologically suitable and cost-effective solution to Russia’s drone blitz. A number of models are currently in development and undergoing testing in combat conditions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said interceptor drones proved effective during Russia’s July 4 attack and shot down “dozens of Shaheds.” He vowed to scale up production while expanding training for drone operators.

Ukraine is also increasing cooperation with international partners to develop and produce interceptor drones along with other models. There is an obvious mutual interest here. Putin’s rapidly growing drone arsenal poses a direct threat to European security and would likely play a leading role in any future war with Russia.

Interceptor drones are not the only focus of current efforts to counter Putin’s drone bomber fleet. Other options currently under consideration include laser-based weapons, autonomous gun turrets employing AI, and aerial interception involving helicopters or propeller planes. Ultimately, flexibility will be crucial against an enemy that is also constantly learning and innovating.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is rewriting the rules of modern warfare. In this war of innovation, the most important lesson so far has been the dominance of drones. Ukraine set the pace early on, but Russia has now seized the initiative. In the coming months, Kyiv’s allies must provide as much support as possible in order to close the gap on Moscow and prevent Putin’s current advantage in the drone war from becoming decisive.

Maksym Beznosiuk is a strategic policy specialist and director of UAinFocus, an independent platform connecting Ukrainian and international analysts around key Ukrainian issues.

Others were less diplomatic as they assessed the potentially dire implications for Ukraine’s civilian population of the pause in promised US deliveries. “If Ukraine is left without sufficient air defenses, Russia will wipe out entire cities with ballistic missiles. Tens of millions will flee to Europe by winter,” warned Ukrainian anti-corruption activist Olena Halushka.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian-born Wall Street Journal chief foreign affairs correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov noted that the halt in shipments came despite Ukraine’s considerable efforts to find common ground with US President Donald Trump. “So Zelenskyy did everything Trump asked him to do, signed away mineral rights, agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, and the US still cut off previously funded weapons supplies, leaving Ukrainian cities defenseless against Russian missile strikes. A lesson to all here.”

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By far the biggest cause for concern in Ukraine is the cut in US air defense deliveries at a time when Russia is dramatically escalating the bombardment of Ukrainian cities. In June, Russia launched a record 5438 drones against Ukraine along with large quantities of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha stated on July 1. This is part of a trend that has gained momentum following the return of Trump to the White House, with Russian bombing raids more than doubling in scale since the beginning of 2025.

As Putin’s air offensive intensifies, the civilian death toll is also rising. A new report by the UN’s human rights office published on June 30 revealed a 37 percent year-on-year increase in Ukrainian civilian deaths during the period from December 2024 until the end of May 2025, with 986 people killed and 4807 injured. Many of these deaths came as a result of Russian drone and missile strikes on residential districts and other non-military targets in cities across Ukraine.

Russia’s increasingly deadly aerial attacks are fueling fears that Ukraine’s limited air defenses are in danger of being completely overwhelmed by Putin’s rapidly expanding arsenal of drones and missiles. This new US move to halt the delivery of vital interceptor missiles will now add to the sense of vulnerability in Ukraine and further undermine morale among the civilian population.

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While Ukrainians worry about being killed in their beds each night, the mood in Moscow is far more upbeat. It is easy to understand why Russian officials have welcomed this week’s news from Washington DC of a halt in American weapons deliveries. After all, ending all Western military support for Ukraine has long been a key Kremlin demand. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko went even further in mid-June, announcing that Ukraine must destroy all weapons received from the country’s Western partners as part of any future peace deal.

The Kremlin’s longstanding opposition to Western military aid is part of Moscow’s broader efforts to secure the comprehensive disarmament of Ukraine. During recent bilateral talks in Istanbul, the Russian delegation presented terms that included limits on the size of the postwar Ukrainian military and restrictions governing the categories of weapons the country would be permitted to possess. In line with the Kremlin’s conditions, Ukraine would also be barred from joining any military alliances or entering into bilateral security pacts with Western partners.

Russia’s insistence on a disarmed and defenseless Ukraine should be a massive red flag for anyone who seeks a viable settlement to end Europe’s bloodiest war since World War II. The Kremlin evidently has no intention of coexisting with a free and independent Ukraine, and is already looking to prepare the ground for the next stage in a brutal campaign to extinguish Ukrainian statehood altogether.

As Ukrainians fight for national survival, they remain heavily dependent on continued Western military support. The US decision to halt certain categories of weapons deliveries will not doom Ukraine to defeat, but it is likely to place many more lives in jeopardy. Crucially, it may also prolong the war by helping to convince Putin that he can outlast the West and achieve a decisive victory over an abandoned Ukraine.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

A similar situation unfolded in Syria late last year, when the Kremlin-backed Assad regime collapsed in a matter of days. Once again, Russia refused to become directly involved and chose not to provide its ally with desperately needed military support. Instead, Moscow’s main contribution was to offer the ousted Syrian leader asylum. Iran is therefore not the first country to discover the limits of Russian friendship.

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The Iranians can be forgiven for feeling particularly let down by Moscow’s underwhelming reaction to the recent airstrike campaign against their country. After all, Russia and Iran signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty in January 2025 amid much fanfare in Moscow. At the time, Putin praised the partnership deal as a “real breakthrough” in bilateral relations. In contrast, Kremlin officials have recently sidestepped questions over the possibility of military aid, while underlining that Russia’s recently signed treaty with Iran does not oblige Moscow to defend the Iranians from attack.

Many in Tehran may also feel undervalued given the importance of the support they have provided to Moscow since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Crucially, Iran has delivered thousands of Shahed attack drones to Russia along with the relevant technological blueprints, making it possible for the Kremlin to establish domestic production lines of its own. These drones are now being made at Russian facilities in rapidly increasing quantities and are playing a key role in the Kremlin’s bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities.

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How Russia’s winter warfare strategy targets Ukrainian civilians

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Moscow’s recent record of non-intervention on behalf of its allies is a strong indication that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has left the Russian military dangerously overstretched. Putin appears to have launched the invasion in February 2022 expecting to achieve a quick and comprehensive victory. Instead, his forces have become bogged down in the largest European war since World War II.

More than three years since the start of the invasion, much of Russia’s military strength is now thought to be deployed in Ukraine, with very little spare capacity available for other tasks. Meanwhile, the kinds of air defense systems that Tehran urgently requires are needed in Russia itself to defend against Ukraine’s expanding fleet of domestically produced drones and missiles. In other words, Putin has his hands full dealing with Ukraine and is currently in no position to provide Russia’s partners with protection.

The West should take note of Russia’s apparent military limitations. Throughout the invasion of Ukraine, Western policymakers have consistently urged restraint while warning about the dangers of possible Russian escalation. But as Iran, Syria, and Armenia can all testify, Russia currently appears to have little appetite or capacity for new military engagements. This has no doubt come as an unpleasant surprise in Tehran, but it should be welcome news in Western capitals.

Elena Davlikanova is a fellow at CEPA.

Ukraine’s drone wall is Europe’s first line of defense against Russia

David Kirichenko — Wed, 02 Jul 2025 19:46:42 +0000

As Russia’s summer offensive continues to unfold along a front line measuring hundreds of miles, Ukraine’s overstretched military finds itself heavily reliant on drones to prevent any major breakthroughs. The Ukrainian military’s innovative and rapidly evolving use of unmanned aerial vehicles to create a layered defense is often referred to as a “drone wall.” If this Ukrainian drone wall can prove itself over the coming months and blunt Putin’s big offensive, this will likely shape future defensive doctrine in military academies across Europe and beyond.

The military use of unmanned aerial vehicles has evolved dramatically since the onset of Russia’s invasion more than three years ago, leading many to call the current conflict the world’s first ever full-scale drone war. As the invasion enters a fourth summer, drones are currently thought to account for around 70 percent of all Russian and Ukrainian battlefield casualties.

Ukraine’s drone wall tactics emerged out of military necessity and are part of this far broader shift toward the dominance of unmanned systems on the modern battlefield. Following Russia’s victory in the Battle of Avdiivka in early 2024, Ukraine found itself on the defensive and facing severe shortages of artillery amid delays in anticipated US aid. Kyiv responded by turning to drones as a cheap and effective substitute for more conventional munitions.

While drones lack the firepower to completely replace artillery, Ukraine’s deployment of drones to create defensive corridors many miles deep has proved remarkably effective. Drones are used both for surveillance purposes and to conduct airstrikes, making it extremely difficult for enemy forces to concentrate and launch large-scale offensive operations. The impact of this approach can be seen in the sheer scale of the damage being done to Putin’s invading army. Britain’s International Institute for Strategic Studies has estimated that Russian losses in 2024 included around 1400 tanks along with more than 3700 armored vehicles.

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As Ukraine’s drone wall has taken shape over the past eighteen months, Russian commanders have been forced to adapt their own tactics. Instead of depending on large armored columns to punch through Ukrainian defenses, Russia has becoming increasingly reliant on small infantry units working to achieve local advances. Rather than traveling in armored vehicles, soldiers now often use highly mobile forms of transport such as motorcycles and buggies in order to evade drones.

Russia is mirroring Ukraine’s progress in the field of drone warfare as the two nations compete in a daily race to innovate and gain a battlefield advantage. At present, the Russians have managed to achieve a significant edge through the large-scale manufacture and deployment of drones operated via fiber optic cables. This low-tech category of drone has been hailed by some as a game changer as such models cannot be jammed using existing electronic warfare tools.

Meanwhile, Russia is increasingly targeting Ukrainian drone operators and the radar stations they depend on. This is making it significantly more difficult for Ukraine to maintain comprehensive drone coverage in depth along the front lines of the war, while creating gaps for Russian infantry units to exploit.

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The strength of Ukraine’s drone wall depends on a number of factors including increased volumes, technological advances, and integration into existing military structures. Domestic Ukrainian drone production has skyrocketed since 2022, with hundreds of new companies entering the market. As a result, annual output is set to reach four million drones this year, according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

Despite this progress, Ukrainian drone manufacturing remains hampered by financial constraints. Speaking during the recent NATO summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine could potentially produce eight million drones annually but currently lacks the funding to do so. He argued that making up this shortfall was a priority, not only for Ukraine but for the future of European security.

In order to improve the integration of drone units into the Ukrainian army, the country has established a new branch of the military dedicated to drone warfare. Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces are at the forefront of efforts to enhance the drone wall and improve other aspects of the country’s drone operations. In spring 2025, Ukraine also launched the Drone Line initiative, which aims to build on the experience of the Ukrainian military’s most effective drone units and expand on the drone wall concept in order to establish a “kill zone” with a depth of up to fifteen kilometers.

Ukraine’s innovative use of drones to slow Russia’s advance is attracting plenty of attention among Kyiv’s European partners. In April 2025, Germany and six other NATO member states unveiled plans for a drone wall initiative of their own. This envisioned defensive formation will stretch along NATO’s eastern flank, from Norway in the far north down to Poland. The goal is to deter Russia with a combination of AI-powered reconnaissance and counter-drone systems.

Meanwhile, Britain and Ukraine recently announced a new agreement to jointly produce Ukrainian-designed drones, with financing coming from the UK government. This cooperation reflects growing recognition among Kyiv’s allies that Ukraine is no longer a mere recipient of military aid and has become a valuable security partner with unique experience of modern warfare. British troops are also reportedly receiving training from Ukrainian specialists in drone warfare.

Ukraine’s drone wall alone will not be enough to stop the invading Russian army. But with sufficient funding, effective coordination, and the right support from more conventional weapons systems, there are good reasons to believe that this approach can make it extremely difficult for the Russian army to achieve major battlefield breakthroughs. This will be put to the test during what promises to be an intense summer campaigning season as Putin pushes his commanders to deliver results, whatever the cost. If Ukraine’s drone wall can stand firm, it will likely be recognized as an essential element in Europe’s future defense against Russia.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

Putin’s escalating air offensive is overwhelming Ukraine’s defenses

Mykola Bielieskov — Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:45:07 +0000

Russia launched the largest aerial attack of the entire Ukraine invasion in the early hours of June 29, according to Ukrainian officials. The Russians dispatched a total of 537 aerial weapons in the overnight bombardment, including 477 drones and decoys along with at least sixty missiles, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat told the Associated Press.

This latest attack is part of a broader escalation in Russia’s air war that has seen the number of drones fired at Ukraine more than double during the six months since Donald Trump returned to the White House. The dramatic increase in Russian airstrikes has led to a sharp rise in Ukrainian civilian casualties in recent months, and is now threatening to overwhelm the country’s limited air defense capabilities.

Russia’s air offensive is not new, of course. The Kremlin has been bombing Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and civilian population since the onset of the full-scale invasion more than three years ago. Recently, however, technological advances and increased industrial output have made it possible for Moscow to significantly expand the bombardment of Ukrainian cities. The Kremlin’s goal is to make life unbearable for Ukrainian civilians and increase the pressure on the country’s political leadership as Russia seeks to secure Kyiv’s capitulation.

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The biggest change during 2025 has been in the sheer scale of Russia’s aerial attacks. In late 2024, Moscow was launching around two thousand drones per month at Ukrainian cities. That figure has now risen to more than four thousand. While a typical attack may earlier have involved dozens of drones, it is now commonplace for Russia to launch hundreds of drones in a single night. Inevitably, this increase in volume means more and more drones are reaching their targets.

This has been made possible by massively expanded drone production inside Russia. During the first year of the full-scale invasion, the Russians initially relied on Iran to supply the bulk of the long-range drones used in attacks on Ukrainian cities. More recently, Moscow has acquired the relevant technology from Tehran and begun producing drones domestically.

With dependence on Iran now reduced to a minimum, Russia’s expanding drone production is in part thanks to backing from the Kremlin’s other authoritarian allies. Ukraine has accused China of supporting Russia’s efforts to ramp up domestic drone output and claims Beijing is providing Moscow with a wide range of vital technical components. Recent reports also indicate that North Korea is poised to send tens of thousands of workers to produce drones at industrial facilities in eastern Russia.

Russia’s increasingly deadly drone attacks are not only due to growing numbers. Russian drones are also evolving to become faster and more explosive, with some of the latest models featuring video cameras and incorporating AI technologies. The current generation of drones tend to attack from higher altitudes, making them significantly more difficult for Ukrainian air defense crews to intercept.

Meanwhile, Russian drone warfare specialists continue to develop more effective tactics. This includes coordinated attacks involving drones together with cruise missiles and ballistic missiles to overload Ukraine’s air defenses. Russia is also now incorporating so-called wolf pack tactics, with drones approaching a target from a range of different directions before striking virtually simultaneously. This has proved far more effective than launching wave after wave of drone attacks.

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Russia’s increasingly deadly drone campaign is having a demoralizing impact on the population throughout Ukraine. Addressing this challenge is now one of the most urgent and complex tasks facing the Ukrainian military.

The most obvious solution would be to destroy Russian drones before they can be launched, either at production sites or storage facilities. Russia is well aware of this and has moved production lines far away from Ukraine. As Russian drones do not require traditional airfields, attacks on launch sites are unlikely to have a significant impact.

At present, Ukraine’s anti-drone defenses include a combination of heavy machine guns and traditional anti-aircraft artillery. This approach proved fairly effective during the first few years of the war, but ground crews are now increasingly unable to cope with the scale of Russia’s attacks and the sophistication of Moscow’s most recent drone models. Missile defense systems and fighter jets have a better chance of intercepting Russia’s upgraded drone fleet, but this is a very expensive approach that risks exhausting Ukraine’s air defenses and leaving the country vulnerable to missile strikes.

As the destruction of residential districts across Ukraine reaches unprecedented levels, it is clear that the Ukrainian military needs to adopt new approaches to address the growing drone menace. The most cost-effective solution would be to produce interceptor drones capable of protecting Ukrainian cities. This process is already underway but must be urgently scaled up to reflect the size of the task ahead.

There is no time to waste. Ukraine’s dynamic defense tech sector is developing a range of potentially effective interceptor drone models, but large-scale production is crucial. This will require decisive measures from the Ukrainian authorities to identify the most effective solutions and provide the necessary backing in a timely fashion. Kyiv’s partners can also contribute to this process by supplying interceptor drones and financing the manufacture of domestic models.

In addition to interceptor drones, some analysts see promise in the expanded use of helicopters and perhaps even propeller planes to shoot down Russian drones. Propeller planes may be particularly well-suited to this task, offering an economically viable alternative to the use of jet fighters while operating at speeds closer to the drones they aim to intercept. A Ukrainian F-16 pilot and his plane were lost while trying to destroy incoming Russian drones and missiles on June 29, underlining the dangers of such operations.

Russia’s escalating drone war is the latest chapter in an invasion that has been shaped by rapid technological development. Ukraine can expect recent Russian trends to continue, with more massive aerial attacks featuring deadlier drones. If they wish to prevent a collapse in Ukrainian morale, officials in Kyiv must rapidly come up with their own tech solutions in quantities capable of blunting the threat posed by Putin’s expanding drone fleet.

Mykola Bielieskov is a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and a senior analyst at Ukrainian NGO “Come Back Alive.” The views expressed in this article are the author’s personal position and do not reflect the opinions or views of NISS or Come Back Alive.

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The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia was first reported in late 2024, with at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers believed to have taken part in combat operations in Russia’s Kursk region. According to a recent UK Ministry of Defense intelligence update, North Korean forces sustained more than 6,000 casualties during fighting against the Ukrainian military, representing around half of the original deployment. This is an indication of the prominent role played by the North Koreans in front line combat operations.

Russia initially denied the presence of North Korean soldiers. However, following significant battlefield progress in spring 2025, both Moscow and Pyongyang moved to publicly acknowledge the role played by North Korean troops in pushing the Ukrainians out of the Kursk region. Reports indicate that they served as assault units operating on the front lines of the Russian offensive, which would certainly tally with the high North Korean casualty rates claimed by the British.

This North Korean presence is having a significant impact on the battlefield. Ukrainian military officials who have encountered North Korean troops on the front lines of the war acknowledge their ability to learn quickly and incorporate new tactics based on their expanding combat experience in Russia. “They have adapted to modern combat conditions,” commented Ukrainian commander Oleh Shyriaiev. This has included significant progress in terms of drone warfare.

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The appearance of North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces came following more than two years of increasing military cooperation marked by expanding deliveries of North Korean ammunition and equipment to bolster the Russian war effort. This support has played a critical role in aiding Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. A Reuters investigation published in spring 2025 indicated that North Korea was providing more than half of all artillery shells being used by the Russian military in Ukraine.

North Korea is also supplying Russia with significant quantities of ballistic missiles, according to a May 2025 report produced by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team comprising eleven countries including the United States, Britain, Japan, and a number of EU member states. The report concluded that Russia is using North Korean weapons to escalate airstrikes on critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and to “terrorize” entire Ukrainian cities.

In exchange for providing the Kremlin with manpower and a steady flow of munitions, North Korea is receiving Russian assistance that is enabling the country to modernize its military. Reported upgrades in North Korean military capabilities through cooperation with the Kremlin include Russian funding for North Korean military programs along with the provision of air defense equipment and anti-aircraft missiles, advanced electronic warfare systems, and the further development of North Korea’s ballistic missiles.

By providing Russia with ballistic missiles for attacks on Ukraine, North Korea has gained unprecedented experience in modern warfare. This is making it possible to increase the accuracy of North Korea’s existing missile guidance systems. With Moscow’s help, North Korea is also developing attack drones similar to those used by Russia to strike Ukrainian cities, according to Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov.

The modernization of the North Korean army poses a range of potential security challenges for South Korea and the wider region. North Korea’s participation in Russia’s war against Ukraine is also seen by many as a dangerous escalation toward a more international confrontation.

So far, North Korean soldiers appear to have only participated in combat operations inside Russia. However, Kyiv officials have voiced concerns that the North Koreans could soon be redeployed to Ukraine itself to join Russia’s ongoing summer offensive. Given the lack of a forceful Western response to Pyongyang’s increasingly open involvement in the Russian war effort, such concerns seem more than justified.

Olivia Yanchik is an assistant director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

Ukraine is shaping the future of drone warfare at sea as well as on land

Peter Dickinson — Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:16:01 +0000

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is redefining military doctrine in ways not witnessed since the advent of air power and nuclear weapons in the first half of the twentieth century. For more than three years, both countries have been locked in a daily race to innovate that is leading to the increasing dominance of unmanned systems. This unprecedented drone war is being fought on the battlefields of Ukraine, deep inside Russia, and at sea. While Russia’s far greater resources favor Moscow, Ukraine’s sophisticated tech scene and vibrant startup culture are helping Kyiv to punch well above its weight.

Ukraine’s spectacular June 1 drone attacks on Vladimir Putin’s strategic bomber fleet at airbases across Russia made global headlines and have led to widespread claims that Kyiv has managed to “rewrite the rules of war.” However, Ukraine’s most remarkable accomplishments in the field of drone warfare have arguably been achieved thousands of miles to the south in the Black Sea.

Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov recently showcased the latest addition to the country’s expanding naval drone fleet, the Magura V7 unmanned marine vehicle. This domestically produced naval drone is armed with a pair of anti-aircraft missiles and is reportedly capable of operating at sea for days at a time while hunting Russian warplanes. According to Ukrainian officials, the Magura V7 has already proven itself in combat by shooting down two Russian Su-30 fighter jets over the Black Sea in early May. Budanov described the operation as an “historic moment.” It is believed to be the first ever instance of military jets being downed by unmanned naval platforms.

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Last month’s destruction of two Russian warplanes was the latest in a series of remarkable maritime breakthroughs that have allowed Ukraine to gain the upper hand in the Battle of the Black Sea. When the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine began more than three years ago, few would have believed such a turn of events was possible. At the time, the war at sea was widely viewed as a foregone conclusion. After all, Ukraine had no conventional navy to speak of, while Russia could call on the considerable might of the country’s aged but nonetheless formidable Black Sea Fleet.

This disparity was on display during a famous incident that took place on the very first day of the invasion. On the morning of February 24, 2022, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva missile cruiser, loomed up to Ukraine’s Snake Island and ordered the tiny Ukrainian garrison to surrender. “Russian warship, go f*** yourself,” came the iconic response. While this message of defiance captured the global imagination and became an unofficial slogan for the entire Ukrainian war effort, the incident also served to underline the apparent mismatch between the maritime capabilities of the two adversaries.

During the initial weeks of the war, Russian control of the Black Sea remained uncontested, with Ukrainian attention focused firmly on preventing amphibious landings along the country’s southern coastline. But even at this precarious point, Ukrainian commanders had their own offensive ambitions and would soon send a powerful signal that they were capable of fighting back at sea as well as on land. In April 2022, the Ukrainian Navy launched a bold missile attack on the Moskva, securing two direct hits and sinking the Russian flagship. The attack sent shock waves around the world and sparked fury among Kremlin officials. Little did they know that this was just the first of many stunning Russian naval defeats that would transform the military situation in the Black Sea.

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Since the sinking of the Moskva, Ukraine has used a combination of domestically developed naval drones and cruise missiles provided by Kyiv’s French and British partners to decimate Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Ukrainian Navy officials claim they have managed to damage or destroy around one-third of Putin’s entire fleet, while forcing the remaining Russian warships to retreat from occupied Crimea to the relative safety of ports in Russia itself. This has severely limited the Russian Navy’s ability to operate in the Black Sea. By spring 2024, Britain’s Defense Ministry declared that the Russian Black Sea Fleet had become “functionally inactive.”

Ukraine’s stunning success in the Battle of the Black Sea has yet to receive the international attention it deserves. By breaking the Russian naval blockade of Ukraine’s seaports, it has allowed Kyiv to resume maritime exports and secure a vital economic lifeline.

Crucially, the Russian Navy’s humiliating retreat from Crimea has also made a complete mockery of the Kremlin’s so-called red lines and has demonstrated the emptiness of Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling. The Russian dictator has long championed the seizure of Crimea as his crowning achievement, and has repeatedly hinted that he is willing to use nuclear weapons in defense of his conquests. But when confronted by the harsh military realities of Ukraine’s deadly naval drones, he withdraw the bulk of Russia’s fleet from Crimea with barely a murmur.

The Battle of the Black Sea is far from over, of course. While Ukraine develops groundbreaking new naval drones capable of hitting warplanes as well as warships, Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian seaports and targets merchant shipping carrying Ukrainian exports to global markets. The Russian Navy is also producing marine drones of its own, and is adopting defensive measures to protect the remainder of the Black Sea Fleet. Nevertheless, Kyiv’s Black Sea innovations are a reminder that Ukraine is an increasingly formidable military power in its own right and is shaping the future of drone warfare at sea as well as on land.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Ukrainian innovations are redefining the role of drones in modern war

Vitaliy Nabukhotny — Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:34:16 +0000

Ukraine’s audacious recent drone strikes on Vladimir Putin’s bomber fleet at airbases across Russia have generated global headlines and fueled a lively debate over the implications of the attack. Many have hailed this highly successful Ukrainian operation as a watershed moment in military history, leading to claims in some quarters that Ukraine is now “redefining modern warfare.”

This international attention is understandable. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is widely recognized as the world’s first drone war, with Ukrainian innovation playing a key role in defining the role of drones in twenty-first century military operations. But while most analysis tends to focus on spectacular attacks like the recent decimation of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, the Ukrainian military is actually using drones for a far wider variety of functions. Ukraine’s drone experience is unprecedented and provides a range of important lessons for military commanders around the world.

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The primary role of drones in modern warfare is as weapons. Over the past three years, first person view (FPV) drones have become a ubiquitous feature of the contemporary battlefield and are believed to be responsible for the vast majority of Russian and Ukrainian casualties. This is changing the way the war is fought. Any vehicles operating close to the front lines must now rely on jamming devices, with many also favoring the additional protection of so-called “cope cage” coverings to shield against drone attacks. With larger groups of infantry deemed too vulnerable to drone strikes, attacks are typically carried out by small groups, often using highly mobile transport such as motorbikes or buggies.

Ukraine has also pioneered the use of drones and accompanying software to perform surveillance tasks mapping out the battlefield and providing real-time situational awareness of enemy deployments. This reconnaissance capability is not new in itself, but has undergone significant upgrades in recent years. Accurate and up-to-date information allows commanders to make informed decisions quickly, improving the effectiveness of military operations.

Beyond the battlefield, Ukraine has also transformed international understanding of drone warfare at sea. Since 2022, Ukrainian naval drones have succeeded in sinking or damaging around one-third of Russia’s entire Black Sea Fleet, forcing the remainder of Putin’s warships to retreat from Russian-occupied Crimea to the relative safety of Russia’s own Black Sea ports. Most recently, Ukraine claimed to have used naval drones to shoot down two Russian warplanes over the Black Sea.

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In addition to strike and surveillance functions, Ukraine has also employed drones in logistical roles. The Ukrainian army uses both aerial and ground-based unmanned systems to deliver ammunition, food, medicine, and other supplies to troops operating in dangerous or inaccessible areas, thereby reducing the need to expose personnel to hostile environments. Drone-based solutions can also potentially facilitate the evacuation of the wounded when manned rescue is deemed to be too risky.

One of the most creative Ukrainian uses of drones on the battlefield has been to help take surrendering Russian soldiers prisoner. This method reduces the need for physical engagement with enemy troops and therefore limits the risks to the Ukrainian side. Drones are used to give instructions using printed messages or via loudspeakers to guide enemy soldiers and indicate safe directions that will allow them to surrender without coming under fire.

Ukrainian unmanned systems are also playing an important role in efforts to document Russian war crimes. Drones are able to record the time, location, and nature of potential crimes, along with the identity of the perpetrators in some cases. Over the past three years, Ukrainian drones have captured evidence of potential war crimes including the execution of unarmed POWs and attacks on civilians. This footage can be used in future prosecutions and increases the chances that those responsible for war crimes in Ukraine will be held accountable.

The growing role of drones in warfare creates a range of challenges in terms of the accepted norms governing military operations. With this in mind, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence has drawn up and issued internal guidelines for drone operators and legal teams to ensure adherence to the laws of armed conflict. These guidelines incorporate real-world combat scenarios to help drone operators understand how to treat categories such as medical personnel, retreating enemy troops, and those engaged in the evacuation of the wounded. This initiative is a step toward establishing broader global standards for responsible drone warfare.

Ukraine’s unique experience of drone warfare offers valuable insights that will shape military doctrines for many years to come, while also helping to define international standards for the use of drones in a military context. It is already clear that drones are transforming the battlefield in ways the evoke the twentieth century rise of air power. As drone technologies continue to advance, Ukraine is likely to remain a key player in this new wave of military innovation.

Vitaliy Nabukhotny is a human rights lawyer and external legal advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s Legal Department.

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According to Ukrainian sources, preparations for Operation Spider’s Web had been underway since late 2023. Ukraine was able to move a series of modified cargo containers into Russia along with more than one hundred first-person view (FPV) drones. The containers were then loaded with the drones and mounted on lorries before being moved into position close to Russian airbases. On Sunday morning, the green light was given and the drones were remotely activated, emerging from their containers to strike nearby Russian bombers.

The bombers targeted in these drone attacks play a key role in Russia’s air war and are regularly used to launch cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities. While Ukraine’s June 1 success will not bring this bombing campaign to an end, it may help save Ukrainian lives by reducing the number of available planes and forcing Russia to disperse its remaining strategic bombers to locations further away from Ukraine.

While any reduction on Russia’s ability to bomb Ukrainian civilians is welcome, the impact of Ukraine’s airbase attacks on the future course of the war is likely to be far more profound. Sunday’s Ukrainian strikes at locations across Russia have transformed the situation on Putin’s home front. Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion more than three years ago, Russians have grown accustomed to viewing the war as something that is taking place far away. That sense of security has now been shattered.

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This was not the first time Ukraine has struck deep inside Russia. For much of the war, Ukraine has been using its growing fleet of long-range drones to target Russian military bases and the country’s oil and gas industry. Russian Air Force hubs such as the Engels airbase in Saratov Oblast have been hit multiple times.

Ukraine’s attacks have gained momentum as the country’s long-range drone fleet has evolved and as Kyiv has developed its own missile capabilities. This mounting proficiency has not gone unnoticed internationally. Indeed, China reportedly asked Ukraine to refrain from attacking Moscow during the recent Victory Day parade on May 9, as Beijing was apparently unsure whether the Russians themselves could provide sufficient protection for the visiting Chinese leader.

Sunday’s operation represents a new stage in Ukraine’s efforts to bring Putin’s invasion home to Russia. By deploying large numbers of drones surreptitiously across the Russian Federation and activating them remotely, Ukraine demonstrated an ability to strike anywhere without warning. The consequences of this are potentially far-reaching. Russia must now increase security at every single military base, military-industrial site, command center, and transport hub throughout the country.

In addition to ramping up defensive measures around military infrastructure, Russia must also introduce further checks at the country’s borders and closely monitor all activity along endless highways stretching from Europe’s eastern frontier to the Pacific Ocean. This is a logistical nightmare. For example, thanks to Ukraine’s attack, all cargo containers must now be treated with suspicion. There are already reports of bottlenecks emerging at locations across Russia as alarmed officials inspect lorries in the hunt for more Ukrainian drones.

Given the colossal size of the Russian Federation, addressing the threat posed by Ukraine’s Trojan Horse tactics is a truly Herculean task. Russia’s vastness has traditionally been viewed as one of the country’s greatest strengths. The new form of warfare being pioneered by Ukraine could now turn this size into a major weakness. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that Ukraine does not “have any cards” in its war with Russia, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may just have played the ace of drones.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

Q&A with Haluk Bayraktar

Atlantic Council Turkey Programs — Mon, 02 Jun 2025 14:00:00 +0000

Haluk Bayraktar is the CEO of Baykar, an autonomous technology company based in Turkey. He began his tenure at Baykar in 2004 as an engineering manager, when Baykar’s autonomous technology efforts were still nascent, and has been involved in every aspect of the business’s growth into a leading firm in the Turkish defense sector: project management, logistics, and business development. Baykar’s pioneering role in the rise of the Turkish drone industry makes Bayraktar a fascinating and well-informed observer on security and alliance dynamics affecting Turkey, NATO, and the region.

This interview has been lightly edited for style.

Defense Journal by Atlantic Council IN TURKEY (DJ): Thanks for taking the time to talk with us. Let’s start with developments of common interest to readers in Turkey, the United States, and Europe. Following the industrial and technology cooperation deal with Italian defense and aerospace group Leonardo, what’s next for Baykar in the Western market?

Bayraktar: Baykar has become the world’s biggest drone maker, with thirty-eight international partners now—from Europe and NATO to the Turkic countries, Africa, and the Middle East. Among NATO allies, we have partnered with Poland, Romania, Kosovo, Croatia, and of course, Turkey’s military, law enforcement, and disaster relief agencies. Turkey is a NATO ally, so all our products and technologies follow the technical standards and military specifications of the West and are entirely compatible with Western systems. The Western market is critical for us.

As for Leonardo, we are on the path to establishing a joint venture (JV). They are a major player in Europe, and their work areas are highly compatible with ours—a lot of synergies and complementarity. We were already working with them, integrating payloads and systems with our products: This has become a very strong bond or marriage. A JV is a great opportunity/potential to bring robust, field-proven systems to a broader market. Baykar has drones all around the world, including tactical and strategic platforms. Leonardo produces critical subsystems with great potential for Europe and broader markets where they have a presence, including South America and elsewhere, but Europe is our main focus. In Europe, there is no other mature alternative to what we have.

DJ: What differentiates your approach to manned technology? What is the key to your value proposition?

Bayraktar: We are a tech developer but not just tech. It’s about tech but also about ways to use that technology—about operational employment. Our approach centers on reliability, safety, and robustness. Our experience brings lots of feedback from various areas, which makes our products even more robust. So, we combine technology with real-world experience. Our fleet now exceeds 300,000 flight hours per year, so there is a lot to analyze. Our systems offer the highest performance-to-cost across the market. They are the most adaptable with continuous innovation, and they are equipped with the most advanced technology. In the defense sector, there are huge manufacturing capacity challenges everywhere, whereas there has been a great buildup in Turkey in the last twenty-five years. Over just twenty years, we’ve gone from roughly seventy to over 3,000 companies in the sector, with thousands of products. It’s a great ecosystem with important internal synergies. Baykar has established mass production capacity for unmanned systems. Our Istanbul base is the biggest facility of its kind in the world. So, potential customers know we can deliver quickly. We produce 250 Bayraktar TB2 [unmanned combat aerial vehicles] per year, fifty Akinci [high-altitude, long-endurance] UCAVs per year, and we’re ramping up to support larger capacity as the Bayraktar TB3 UCAV and the Kizilelma unmanned fighter jet move from development to production.

DJ: What is your conceptual and defense technological approach to Kizilelma? Do you see it as a loyal wingman to the fifth-generation Kaan fighter or a pathway to replace Kaan in the future?

Bayraktar: Kaan is a national manned fighter program, funded by the government. Kizilelma is Baykar’s own design and project. It is our final target on the unmanned family of products—a fighter with both subsonic and supersonic capabilities. We do not envision it as a loyal wingman, though it can work as an integrated adjunct in theory, if one were to couple it and use it with manned fighters in risky environments. US President Donald Trump recently introduced the American F-47 as a mothership controlling other fighters, and the consortium developing [the Global Combat Air Program involving Italy, the United Kingdom, and Japan] conceived it in similar fashion. But we envision Kizilelma as operating on its own with a fleet control system. As a company, we don’t develop manned systems. We exclusively invest in drones. That is our focus. Kizilelma is an aircraft with aggressive maneuvering, autonomous operation, and controls that can be flown by few operators. It completed its first flight in 2022, and we see that as a revolution. Bayraktar TB3 has the capability to take off and land on short-runway aircraft carriers. Kizilelma will have this feature too.

Fighter pilots stationed at aircraft carriers have to fly every single day and complete a certain number of sorties annually to stay current. That’s perhaps fifty training flights per day. By contrast, unmanned platforms do not require as much effort or so many daily landings to be certified for carriers. Moreover, Kizilelma will integrate artificial intelligence to assist with delegation of command and other operational aspects.

DJ: How do you view the F-35 debate in the United States, especially Elon Musk’s view that manned aircraft are not the best path forward?

Bayraktar: There are about 13,000 manned fighters worldwide right now–Russian, Chinese, US, and other systems combined. We believe that all those platforms will eventually be converted to unmanned systems, even though one cannot prove that point just yet. But when you look at the field, it’s clearly headed in that direction. To be clear, they may not be replaced one for one. It may be more like three to five unmanned platforms to replace each manned fighter. Unmanned systems will be everywhere, and it will be a crowded airspace—not just unmanned fighters but smaller first-person view drones and loitering munitions. They will be everywhere, and every country will need the ability to build and use these things. For nations to defend themselves in this century, this is a necessary capability—much like the ability to produce bullets.

DJ: Turkey has shown great agility in what has been termed “drone diplomacy,” or complementing regional policy initiatives with defense sales. What is the nature of public/private partnership in Turkish drone diplomacy?

Bayraktar: Overall, the major players in the Turkish defense ecosystem are still government-owned institutional firms. The private sector is smaller but dynamic and growing. Of course, I think that the private sector’s dynamism is preferable. SAHA is the industry group representing the smaller and midsize firms that comprise most of our private sector, and I am currently serving as the chairman.

Still, the system operates similarly for public and private firms. Anyone wishing to export applies to the Ministry of National Defense, which in turn coordinates with the Foreign Ministry and the intelligence community to issue an export license. It is the government’s decision at the end of the day. The government doesn’t promote private-sector firms per se. The Defense Industry Agency (SSB) has foreign relationships and partnerships, and they generally favor government-affiliated companies. One of the objectives of SAHA has been to help small and medium-sized companies become more visible. Our annual exhibition helps smaller players. Baykar is an example of successful growth: We’ve gone from five employees in 2004 to over 6,000 today. We know how important it is to become more visible, and we support other firms doing that. We try to make it easier for the newcomers. That is my responsibility as SAHA chairman.

My view is that European countries are better at using governmental influence to promote national commercial products. Baykar’s products promote themselves through their unique utility as well as aggressive marketing and social media presence. The Turkish government doesn’t subsidize sales, although other countries may. But we don’t rely on public credit or government grants. This is unique to Baykar: We’ve developed an unmanned fighter with the company’s own money. At the end of the day, since companies are required to receive a permit to export, the government plays an important role. The higher levels [of government officials] do talk about it and the firms need approval. The government spending environment matters greatly for domestic firms, too. And while Turkey spent 4.5 percent of its [gross domestic product] on defense before 2000, that number has remained close to 2 percent for two decades now. It was just in the last two years that it approached 3 percent.

The bottom line is that drone diplomacy is a reality and the Bayraktar TB2, in particular, has proven that. But the government doesn’t lead: market demand leads, the company follows, and the government supports.

DJ: Can you talk a little bit about the price/performance balance for Baykar systems?

Bayraktar: The Bayraktar TB2 is a very good example for price/performance balance. The initial purchase price or acquisition cost is one factor, but the life cycle, including maintenance and durability, has to be considered as well because reliability affects long-term costs. Let’s say you procure an alternative to Bayraktar TB2 for half the price. In reality, this is not an advantage if this “alternative” has double the crash rate. So, Bayraktar TB2 has a reliability advantage because you don’t face as many crashes and the cost consideration changes.

Unmanned systems represent a new niche in the defense ecosystem. Aerospace is conservative, especially for manned systems: extensive certifications and regulations serve to protect human life. But unmanned [aerial] vehicles are a different paradigm—you can add new sensors, new technology, and new operational approaches rapidly. An example is the fact that manned systems still use mechanical gyros, whereas the technologically advanced UAVs are currently using even cheaper MEMS [i.e., microelectromechanical system) sensors, fiber-optic alternatives with high-end software systems. You can easily innovate in the unmanned realm with the latest technology, whereas you need to be conservative in the manned domain because you need to make sure that each new step complies with the certification and safety standards of manned aviation. You can qualify unmanned systems with very high-end software—even AI software—and hardware much more quickly.

Baykar has a price advantage because we are vertically integrated. We have strong in-house avionics, power systems, and ground element design. This allows us to tailor critical subsystems and enable attractive pricing with high-end capability. The TB2, with a six-unit ground system and everything, still costs less than a manned platform. Our TB2 fleet recently passed the one-million-hour milestone, so our operating cost is just several hundred dollars per hour—compared to a minimum of $20,000 per hour for a single manned F-16. When you can mass produce, availability and reliability turn into a potent combination. Additionally, customers benefit from the rapid in-service schedule compared to a manned system. A country can field a full UAV system with trained people within a year, providing a very quick and affordable defense capability compared to a manned system, which is a multiyear exercise.

DJ: You mentioned thirty-eight international partners earlier. Ukraine was one of your earliest: Have you been able to apply lessons from that partnership with newer programs, such as those with the Gulf countries?

Bayraktar: Ukraine was Baykar’s first export customer. Our cooperation with Ukraine opened up the strategic level of cooperation for us. We had been working with them since 2011, but things moved rapidly after 2014. In 2014, no one else would sell them armed drones. We didn’t yet have a mature system, but we agreed to help. They were in need, huge need, and searching. That was more than ten years ago. They couldn’t get what they wanted elsewhere either, so they came to Turkey. President Erdoğan’s leadership mattered at that point, as he considered Ukraine a neighbor and friend in need. With the government’s support, we supplied armed drones starting in 2019—the order was placed in 2018. They were very happy and this was very important. President Zelensky visited in August 2019 after taking office. At his request, we agreed to build a factory in Ukraine. He acquired more systems, and we discussed an offset-type obligation. I told them: “You have very good engines. Maybe we can figure out a way to use your engines on our platforms.” So, we created effective cooperation with Motor Sich and others. In a sense, Turkey and Ukraine are complementary countries. When the war escalated in 2022, we did our best to support Ukraine. You may remember the European crowd-sourcing campaigns for Europeans to buy TB2s on Ukraine’s behalf, but we never accepted the money. We donated the platforms, giving up over $110 million in income that we chose not to generate. We are not war profiteers. We delivered all Bayraktar TB2s free of charge as part of those campaigns and the campaign funds were used for humanitarian aid and other pressing needs to support Ukraine.

Haluk Bayraktar is the CEO of Baykar, an autonomous technology company based in Turkey. Follow him on X at @haluk.

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UN probe: Russia’s ‘human safari’ in Ukraine is a crime against humanity

Peter Dickinson — Thu, 29 May 2025 21:46:50 +0000

Russia is guilty of committing crimes against humanity in southern Ukraine’s Kherson region, according to a new report by the UN’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine. The report comes following an extensive investigation into a campaign of Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian civilians over a ten-month period beginning in July 2024, with the probe focusing on an area of southern Ukraine stretching more than 100 kilometers along the right bank of the Dnipro River around the city of Kherson.

Members of the UN Commission determined that Russia was engaged in the deliberate targeting of civilians and concluded that the drone attacks were “widespread, systematic, and conducted as part of a coordinated state policy.” The report detailed how civilians were targeted “in various circumstances, mainly when they were outdoors, both on foot or while using any type of vehicles,” and noted that on a number of occasions ambulances had been struck by drones in an apparent bid to prevent them from reaching victims and providing vital medical assistance.

During the ten-month period covered by the United Nations probe, Russian drones killed almost 150 Ukrainian civilians in and around Kherson, while leaving hundreds more injured. The constant threat of attack has created a pervasive climate of fear throughout the region, with people afraid to leave their homes. Terrified locals say they feel hunted and refer to the drone attacks as a “human safari.”

In addition to daily drone strikes, Russia has sought to maximize the psychological pressure on residents of the Kherson region via social media channels. UN investigators reported that video footage of drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians is regularly disseminated on Russian Telegram channels, some of which have thousands of subscribers. This video footage shows drone strikes along with the resulting deaths and destruction in the style of video games, often accompanied by background music. Meanwhile, menacing messages posted on Telegram call on Ukrainians to flee the region. “Get out of the city before the leaves fall, you who are destined to die,” read one message quoted in the UN report.

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This is not the first time UN investigators have accused Russia of committing crimes against humanity in Ukraine. A March 2025 UN report reached a similar conclusion regarding the Kremlin’s large-scale program of detentions and deportations targeting Ukrainians living under Russian occupation. “The evidence gathered led the Commission to conclude that the enforced disappearances against civilians were perpetrated pursuant to a coordinated state policy and amount to crimes against humanity,” the report stated.

Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court in The Hague has issued a number of arrest warrants for senior Russian officials in relation to alleged war crimes committed in Ukraine including the targeted bombing of civilians and critical civilian infrastructure. The most high-profile ICC arrest warrant is for Vladimir Putin himself, who is wanted for his alleged involvement in the mass abduction of Ukrainian children.

At least 20,000 Ukrainian children are believed to have been kidnapped since the start of the full-scale invasion and taken to Russia, where they are subjected to indoctrination to rob them of their Ukrainian heritage and impose a Russian national identity. The nature and scale of these mass abductions may qualify as an act of genocide according to the 1948 United Nations Genocide Convention.

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Russia’s deadly “human safari” drone campaign against the civilian population in southern Ukraine’s Kherson region is part of the Kremlin’s strategy to make the area unlivable. The city of Kherson was occupied by the advancing Russian army during the first days of the full-scale invasion and was officially annexed by Russia in September 2022. However, Kherson and the surrounding area were liberated by the Ukrainian military soon after. The scenes of joy that accompanied the liberation of Kherson were deeply humiliating for Putin, who had personally proclaimed the city to be “forever” Russian just weeks earlier.

This setback forced Putin’s invading army to retreat across the Dnipro River, creating a major physical obstacle for the Russian invasion and limiting the occupied zone of Ukraine to the eastern half of the country. Nevertheless, Moscow continues to insist that Kherson and the surrounding region are now part of the Russian Federation and must be handed over within the framework of a future peace deal.

Ukraine has completely ruled out any such concessions. This is hardly surprising. While some temporary territorial compromises may prove possible during peace negotiations, Ukraine’s stance on Kherson is unlikely to change. After all, allowing the renewed Russian occupation of Kherson would be suicidal for Kyiv. It would present Russia with a priceless foothold across the Dnipro River that could be used as a gateway to seize Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and complete the conquest of the country.

For now, Russia appears to have little chance of seizing Kherson militarily or of acquiring the city at the negotiating table. Instead, Moscow seems to be intent on terrorizing local residents and forcing them to flee. Putin claims that the population of the Kherson region are Russians, but he has no qualms about his soldiers using drones to hunt and kill them mercilessly. This tells you all you need to know about Putin’s cynical posturing as the protector of the Russian people in Ukraine.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

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There are some drawbacks to this kind of drone. Key problems include limited range and a tendency to become entangled in obstacles such as trees and pylons. Nevertheless, there is mounting recognition on both sides of the front lines and among international military observers that fiber optic drones are now indispensable. In a recent report, the BBC called these drones “the terrifying new weapon changing the war in Ukraine.” Meanwhile, the Washington Post noted that Moscow’s focus on fiber optic drones represents “the first time Russia has surpassed Ukraine in front-line drone technology since the full-scale invasion in 2022.”

The combat effectiveness of fiber optic drones became increasingly apparent amid heavy fighting in Russia’s Kursk region during the early months of 2025. Russia’s campaign to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region used large numbers of fiber optic drones to attack Ukraine’s flanks, cut supply lines, and cripple Ukrainian logistics. This eventually forced Ukrainian troops to retreat, ending an extended incursion into Russian territory that had been hugely embarrassing for Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian troops who fought in Kursk later reported that the only thing capable of stopping fiber optic drones was bad weather.

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The technology behind fiber optic drones is no secret and is available to Ukraine as well as Russia. However, as is so often the case, Moscow benefits from weight of numbers and is looking to exploit its strengths. While Ukraine has experimented with a wide variety of drones produced by hundreds of different startup-style defense companies, Russia has concentrated its vast resources on the mass production of a relatively small number of specific weapons categories including fiber optic drones and shahed kamikaze drones. Moscow’s strategy is to focus on volume with the goal of overwhelming Ukraine’s defenses. Russia has also benefited from close ties with China, which is a key drone producer and ranks among the world’s leading suppliers of fiber optic cables.

Ukraine’s front line military commanders and the country’s tech sector developers recognize the growing importance of fiber optic drones and are now rapidly increasing production. However, they are currently lagging far behind Russia and have much work to do before they can catch up. It is a race Ukraine cannot afford to lose. One of the country’s largest drone manufacturers recently warned that if the current trajectory continues, Kyiv will soon be unable to defend against the sheer scale of Russia’s mass production.

Increased foreign investment in Ukraine’s defense industry could help close the gap. By financing the development and production of fiber optic drones, Ukraine’s international partners can put the country’s defenses on a firmer footing and enable the Ukrainian military to address the threat posed by Russia’s cable-connected drones. This trend has already been underway for some time, with more and more partner countries allocating funds for Ukrainian defense sector production. The challenge now is to channel this financing specifically toward fiber optic drones.

Time may not be on Ukraine’s side. The Russian army is currently in the early stages of a summer offensive that promises to be one of the largest and most ambitious of the entire war, with fighting already intensifying at various points along the front lines. If Putin’s commanders can implement the fiber optic drone tactics that proved so successful in the Kursk region, they may be able to finally overcome Ukraine’s dogged defenses and achieve a long-awaited breakthrough. In a war defined by attrition and innovation, Ukraine must now come up with urgent solutions to counter Russia’s fiber optic drone fleet.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

If these companies are forced to close, skilled professionals will seek employment abroad. This could lead to the leakage of knowledge and technologies. Meanwhile, with NATO countries likely to be focused on their own defense industries and strategic priorities, it is reasonable to assume that many Ukrainian defense sector companies will concentrate on exporting to more volatile regions. The potentially destabilizing impact of these trends is obvious. It is therefore vital to adopt effective measures to limit the spread of Ukrainian defense sector technologies, data, and finished products along with skilled developers, engineers, and operators to potential conflict zones around the world.

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Ukraine’s defense sector innovations fall into two categories. The first includes innovations that are easily replicated using readily available technologies. The second category features more complex systems requiring skilled professionals. It makes little sense to focus regulatory efforts on the first category. Instead, preventing proliferation is more effectively managed through intelligence operations and security measures. Preventative efforts should focus on those innovations that are more complex in both development and deployment.

Efforts to prevent Ukrainian defense technologies from fueling conflicts around the world will depend to a significant degree on enforcement. While Ukraine has made some progress in combating corruption over the past decade, this remains a major issue, particularly in the country’s dramatically expanded defense sector. A successful approach to limiting the spread of Ukrainian defense tech know-how should therefore incorporate a combination of positive and negative incentives.

Positive incentives can include opening up NATO markets to Ukrainian companies and supporting their efforts to comply with NATO standards. This would likely encourage a broader culture of compliance throughout the Ukrainian defense tech sector as companies sought to access the world’s most lucrative client base.

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Creating the conditions for the acquisition of Ukrainian companies by major international defense industry players could help to encourage a responsible corporate culture among Ukrainian companies while bolstering the country’s position globally. Likewise, enhanced access to funding and a simplified route to work visas and citizenship in the EU and US would help attract and retain talent. This would further strengthen Ukraine’s defense sector and encourage corporate compliance.

Professional organizations also have a potential role to play. Promoting the development of robust industry and professional associations for Ukrainians in the defense sector would encourage collaboration, knowledge sharing, and the establishment of industry standards, which could further propel innovation and growth within Ukraine’s defense industry, while creating a climate more conducive to regulation. Regulatory measures could include enhanced access to Western defense markets, with strict penalties for non-compliance.

Targeted export controls are another important measure. By establishing robust controls over critical components such as processors and specialized equipment, Ukraine can limit the availability of these technologies in regions with high conflict potential. Enhanced monitoring mechanisms should be implemented to track the transfer of technologies and the movement of skilled personnel. International cooperation is also crucial. Ukraine should look to work closely with global partners to synchronize regulatory standards and enforcement strategies, thereby reducing the challenges presented by regions with weak legal mechanisms.

Ukraine is now recognized internationally as a leading defense tech innovator in areas including AI solutions, cyber security, and drone warfare. There is huge global appetite for such technologies, but unregulated distribution could have disastrous consequences for international security. By combining enforceable regulatory measures with strategic incentives, it is possible to reduce the risks associated with the spread of Ukraine’s wartime innovations, while simultaneously maintaining an environment that supports ongoing innovation and growth in a controlled and secure manner.

Vitaliy Goncharuk is a US-based tech entrepreneur with Ukrainian roots who previously served as Chairman of the Artificial Intelligence Committee of Ukraine from 2019 to 2022.

For the past one and a half years, the International Human Rights Clinic at Harvard Law School and the International Partnership for Human Rights have documented and analyzed Russia’s aerial attacks in Ukraine. This research is based on extensive fieldwork, witness interviews, open-source intelligence, and forensic analysis.

After reviewing hundreds of Russian drone and missile strikes, researchers narrowed the focus down to twenty-two key attacks and identified two patterns that illuminate their impact: Attacks on energy infrastructure and on densely populated areas. The legal memorandum resulting from this work concludes that Russia’s bombing campaign amounts to the crimes against humanity of extermination and persecution.

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For three consecutive winters, Russia has bombed Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in a bid to deprive the civilian population of access to heating and electricity at a time when the days are short and temperatures are typically well below freezing. These attacks have had a devastating impact on the Ukrainian power grid, with around half of Ukraine’s entire prewar energy-generating capacity destroyed by summer 2024.

As well as targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure, Russia has also launched waves of drones and missiles at Ukrainian towns and cities throughout the invasion, causing widespread destruction and loss of life. There have been a number of particularly deadly attacks in recent weeks, including a ballistic missile strike on a playground in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s hometown, Kryvyi Rih, that killed eighteen people including nine children. On Palm Sunday one week before Easter, Russia launched a targeted strike on Sumy city center as civilians made their way to church, leaving thirty-five dead.

In addition to killing and injuring civilians, Russian aerial attacks also create untenable living conditions for the wider civilian population. They leave people traumatized and fuel intense feelings of insecurity, while disrupting access to heating, power, water, healthcare, and other essential resources.

While estimating the true toll of these attacks is challenging, the number of displaced Ukrainians indicates the sheer scale of the humanitarian crisis. According to UN data from February 2025, Russian’s invasion has forced 10.6 million people to relocate, with 6.9 million recorded as refugees living outside Ukraine. Meanwhile, around 12.7 million Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian assistance, including nearly two million children.

Russia systematically and deliberately deprives civilians of objects essential to their survival and inflicts conditions of life calculated to bring about their destruction, which constitutes the crime against humanity of extermination. Statements by Russian officials, such as calls for Ukrainians to be left to “freeze and rot,” corroborate this conclusion.

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Russia’s aerial terror campaign, as well as the Kremlin’s actions in the occupied regions of Ukraine, have intentionally deprived Ukrainians of their fundamental rights to life, health, education, and culture, thus constituting the crime against humanity of persecution. The crime of persecution requires special discriminatory intent to target Ukrainians as a distinct group. This intent can be seen in Moscow’s branding of Ukrainians as “Nazis” who must be “destroyed.” such language underscores that Russia is attacking the very existence of Ukrainians. Targeted Russian attacks on educational and cultural facilities across Ukraine are further evidence of this intent.

Additionally, throughout the regions of Ukraine currently under Kremlin control, the Russian occupation authorities are reportedly enforcing russification policies that aim to extinguish any trace of Ukrainian national identity or statehood. Thousands of Ukrainian children have been deported to Russia and subjected to anti-Ukrainian indoctrination. The International Criminal Court in The Hague has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in relation to the large-scale deportation of Ukrainian children.

Holding Russia accountable for the ongoing air offensive against Ukraine is particularly important as this form of prohibited total war, where everything and anything including vital infrastructure and civilian populations are targeted to achieve victory, looks set to return. Technological advances are transforming the modern battlefield to essentially include entire countries and their civilian populations. Against this backdrop, Russia’s use of long-range drones and missiles to terrorize Ukrainian civilians is likely a taste of things to come.

To date, no international tribunal has held individual perpetrators responsible for international crimes resulting from unlawful aerial attacks. The International Criminal Court has taken an important initial step by issuing arrest warrants against four senior Russian officials for their roles in attacking Ukrainian civilians and energy infrastructure, but further measures are needed.

Failure to hold Russia accountable today will fuel tomorrow’s wars and embolden Putin’s fellow autocrats to embrace similar tactics against civilian populations. It is vital to make sure long-term security is not sacrificed in order to reach some kind of compromise with the Kremlin to end the bloodshed in Ukraine. By focusing on accountability for Russia’s aerial attacks, the international community can set a meaningful precedent that could help protect civilians around the world for years to come.

Anastasiya Donets leads the Ukraine Legal Team at the International Partnership for Human Rights, an independent non-governmental organization. She was previously an assistant professor in the International Law Department at Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University in Kharkiv. Susan H. Farbstein is a clinical professor of law at Harvard Law School, where she directs the International Human Rights Clinic.

Drone superpower: Ukrainian wartime innovation offers lessons for NATO

David Kirichenko — Tue, 13 May 2025 21:10:46 +0000

Ever since the onset of Russian aggression against Ukraine eleven years ago, military training has been a core element of Western support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As Moscow’s invasion has escalated into the largest European war since World War II, the relationship between Ukraine and the country’s partners has become much more of a two-way street. While Ukrainian troops continue to train with Western instructors, it is now increasingly apparent that NATO also has a lot to learn from Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military has evolved dramatically during the past three years of full-scale war against Russia to become the largest and most effective fighting force in Europe. Innovation has played a key role in this process, with Ukraine relying on the country’s vibrant tech sector and traditionally strong defense industry to counter Russia’s overwhelming advantages in terms of both manpower and firepower. This has resulted in an army capable of developing and implementing the latest military technologies at speeds that are unmatched by any Western countries with their far more bureaucratic procurement cycles.

Ukraine’s innovative approach to defense is most immediately obvious in the country’s ability to produce and deploy a wide variety of drones. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the experience of the Ukrainian army has underlined the growing dominance of drones on the modern battlefield, and has redefined our understanding of drone warfare in ways that will shape military doctrines around the world for many years to come.

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The most important tools in Ukraine’s unmanned arsenal are the country’s growing fleet of First Person View (FPV) drones. These drones in many ways function as the infantry of drone warfare. They have become a central pillar of Ukraine’s war effort, inflicting up to 80 percent of Russian battlefield casualties and making it possible to hold the line even when Ukrainian troops have found themselves starved of artillery shells.

Ukrainian production of FPV drones has mushroomed in recent years, with domestic companies also gradually moving away from an initial reliance on imported components. By early 2025, Ukraine was reportedly producing 200,000 FPV drones per month. Cheap to manufacture, they are capable of destroying tanks and other military equipment worth millions of dollars.

Russia is also relentlessly adapting to technological changes on the battlefield, creating a daily race to innovate that runs in parallel to the actual fighting on the front lines of the war. The dominance of FPV drones has led to a variety of countermeasures, ranging from the widespread use of netting and so-called “cope cages,” to increasingly sophisticated electronic blocking and the jamming of signals. In response, both Russia and Ukraine are turning to fiber optic drones that are not susceptible to jamming technologies.

As the full-scale war approaches a fourth summer, the evolution of drone tactics continues. Over the past year, Ukraine has sought to establish a 15-kilometer kill zone patrolled by drones along the front lines of the conflict, making it extremely challenging to concentrate troops for major offensive operations. The strength of Ukraine’s so-called “drone wall” defenses will be severely tested in the coming few months by Russia’s ongoing offensive. Building on Ukraine’s experience, NATO is reportedly exploring the idea of creating a “drone wall” of its own on the alliance’s eastern flank.

Beyond the front lines, Ukraine has developed an expanding fleet of long-range drones capable of striking targets deep inside Russia. This has made it possible to carry out a wide range of attacks on Russian military bases, ammunition storage facilities, air defenses, and Putin’s economically vital but vulnerable oil and gas industry. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called the country’s growing long range capabilities “a clear and effective guarantee of Ukraine’s security.”

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Ukrainian drone innovations are also transforming naval warfare. During the first two years of the war, Ukraine used marine drones to target Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, sinking or damaging multiple warships and forcing the remainder to retreat from Russian-occupied Crimea. This remarkable success made it possible to lift the naval blockade on Ukrainian ports and reopen commercial maritime routes, providing Kyiv with a vital economic lifeline.

More recently, Ukraine has begun using naval drones as launch platforms for missiles and smaller unmanned systems. The results have been spectacular. In January 2025, missile-armed Ukrainian naval drones reportedly destroyed several Russian helicopters over the Black Sea. In another world first, Ukrainian officials announced in early May that they had shot down two Russian fighter jets using marine drones equipped with anti-aircraft missile systems.

Ukrainian military planners are now working on a range of unmanned ground systems as they look to take drone warfare to the next level. With support from the country’s government-backed defense tech cluster Brave1, work is underway to develop dozens of robotic models capable of performing a variety of combat and logistical tasks. In December 2024, Ukrainian forces claimed to have made history by conducting the world’s first fully unmanned assault on Russian positions using ground-based robotic systems and FPV drones.

Speaking in April 2025, Ukraine’s former commander in chief Valeriy Zaluzhniy underlined how his country’s use of new technologies was transforming the battlefield. “The Russian-Ukrainian War has completely changed the nature of warfare,” he commented. Zaluzhniy predicted that the wars of the future would be won by countries that focus their resources on the development of drones, electronic warfare, and artificial intelligence. “It is obvious that victory on the battlefield now depends entirely on the ability to outpace the enemy in technological development,” he noted.

Western leaders and military commanders are clearly taking note of the remarkable progress made by the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2022. Many are now incorporating Ukraine’s unique battlefield experience into their own programs, while NATO members including Britain and Denmark are reportedly already receiving training in drone warfare from Ukrainian military instructors. This is likely to be just the beginning, as more countries seek to benefit from Ukrainian expertise.

For many years, it has been customary to view Ukraine as being almost entirely dependent on Western aid and know-how for its survival. This was always an oversimplification; it is now hopelessly outdated. In reality, today’s Ukraine is a drone superpower with an innovative domestic defense industry that can provide its NATO allies with important lessons in the realities of twenty-first century warfare.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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Claims of North Korean troops participating in Russia’s war against Ukraine first began to circulate in October 2024. However, the Kremlin initially denied the North Korean presence, with Russian officials remaining tight-lipped on the subject until late April.

Moscow and Pyongyang appear to have coordinated their recent statements, indicating that both partners felt the time was now right to confirm the involvement of North Korean forces in Russia’s war. Official confirmation came as Putin proclaimed the defeat of Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region, where the bulk of North Korean soldiers are believed to have been deployed.

Moscow’s decision to confirm the presence of North Korean soldiers after months of denials could prove damaging to the Kremlin’s credibility at a time when questions are already being asked over Russia’s commitment to US-led peace talks to end the war in Ukraine. In recent days, US President Donald Trump has signaled his mounting frustration with Putin’s apparent stalling tactics, and has suggested that the Russian leader may be “tapping” him along.

The appearance of North Korean troops alongside their Russian counterparts on the front lines of the war against Ukraine represents the latest stage in a deepening military alliance between the two countries. North Korea has been supplying Russia with significant quantities of military aid since the early stages of the war in 2022. Deliveries have included millions of artillery shells as well as ballistic missiles, which have been used to devastating effect against Ukrainian cities.

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North Korea’s direct participation in the war against Ukraine is a watershed moment in modern European history. It is also widely seen an indication of the Russian army’s mounting recruitment issues.

While the Kremlin still has vast untapped reserves of available manpower to call upon, Putin is thought to be deeply reluctant to conduct a new mobilization due to fears of a possible domestic backlash inside Russia. This is making it increasingly challenging to replenish the depleted ranks of his invading army amid continued heavy losses.

For much of the war, Putin has relied on a combination of recruits drawn from Russia’s prison population and volunteer soldiers attracted by generous financial incentives that are typically many times higher than average Russian salaries. However, with the Russian army now reportedly averaging over a thousand casualties per day, it is becoming more difficult to find sufficient manpower to maintain the momentum of offensive operations in Ukraine.

So far, the North Korean contingent has seen action inside the Russian Federation itself amid fierce battles to push Ukrainian forces out of Russia’s Kursk region. However, with their participation now publicly confirmed by both Moscow and Pyongyang, officials in Kyiv are voicing concerns that North Korean troops could soon be redeployed to Ukrainian territory. This would represent a dangerous international escalation with unpredictable consequences for the wider region.

North Korea has now firmly established itself as one of the Kremlin’s most important allies in the invasion of Ukraine. Pyongyang’s involvement began with the supply of artillery shells and has expanded to include ballistic missiles and large numbers of combat troops. This comprehensive military support is enabling Russia to sustain the current war effort.

Ukraine’s allies are still searching for a suitable reaction to the expanding North Korean military presence on Europe’s eastern frontier. Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has called for the strengthening of sanctions against Russia and North Korea, while also warning that the Koreans are gaining valuable experience of modern warfare in Ukraine that could have grave implications for international security. In the absence of an overwhelming Western response, it seems safe to assume that North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will continue to deepen.

Olivia Yanchik is an assistant director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

US officials do not believe the recently captured fighters have direct ties to the Chinese government, Reuters reports. However, there are mounting concerns in Washington and other Western capitals over reports that Beijing is sending army officers to observe the Russian invasion of Ukraine in a bid to learn tactical lessons from the war. This could provide the Chinese military with important insights into drone warfare and the rapidly changing nature of the modern battlefield.

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In a further indication of growing frustration in Kyiv over China’s alleged support for Russia’s invasion, Zelenskyy recently accused Chinese citizens of working at a Russian manufacturing plant producing drones for the war in Ukraine. In the past month, the Ukrainian authorities have also imposed sanctions on three Chinese companies for alleged involvement in the production of Iskander ballistic missiles, which Russia often uses in the war against Ukraine.

The most serious Ukrainian allegations came in the middle of April, when Zelenskyy claimed that China was now supplying weapons and gunpowder to Russia. This was the first time the Ukrainian leader had openly accused Beijing of providing Moscow with direct military assistance. Although, last fall US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell had also suggested that China was providing Russia with technology that was “not dual-use capabilities,” contributing directly to Russia’s war production.

Claims of expanding Chinese involvement in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine do not come as a complete surprise. After all, China has long been seen as one of the Kremlin’s key allies and has emerged over the past decade as Moscow’s most important economic partner.

On the eve of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, China and Russia declared a “no limits” partnership. Over the past three years, the two countries have repeatedly underlined their shared geopolitical vision, which includes a commitment to ending the era of US dominance and ushering in a new multipolar world order. These strengthening ties have been further highlighted by a number of bilateral summit meetings between the Russian and Chinese leaders.

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Despite its close relations with Moscow, China has officially adopted a neutral stance toward Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This has included refraining from any overt gestures of support and publicly backing calls for peace. Nevertheless, Beijing has faced accusations of enabling the Russian war effort in important ways through the provision of restricted items including sanctioned components and dual-use technologies used in the production of missiles, tanks, and aircraft. By providing the vast majority of these exports to Russia, US officials believe that China has helped Russia greatly boost its arsenal and ramp up military production.

US officials have also alleged that China is providing Russia with geospatial intelligence to aid the invasion of Ukraine.

Claims of growing Chinese involvement are fueling speculation that this could lead to a possible international escalation in Russia’s war against Ukraine. There is also alarm over what Russia may be providing in exchange for Chinese support. US officials have alleged that China is receiving unprecedented access to highly sophisticated Russian defense technologies. The US Congress has also suggested that the Kremlin could be providing China with critical knowledge about the vulnerabilities of Western weapons systems based on combat experience acquired in Ukraine.

While Beijing has denied providing any material support for Moscow’s war, there is no question that the geopolitical partnership between China and Russia has reached new levels against the backdrop of the conflict.

With the United States now looking to reduce its involvement in European security, opportunities may soon emerge for China to play a greater role in peace efforts to end the war. However, Beijing would first need to align its actions with its words to convince Kyiv that it is a plausible peacemaker rather than a Russian ally.

Katherine Spencer is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

Editor’s note: This article was updated on April 30, 2025, to clarify that reports of Chinese support for Russia’s war effort have been persistent before Kyiv’s recent accusations.

Ukraine’s innovative army can help Europe defend itself against Russia

David Kirichenko — Thu, 24 Apr 2025 21:39:48 +0000

When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he cited Ukraine’s “demilitarization” as one of his two key war aims. He has not yet succeeded in achieving this goal, to put it mildly. Rather than disarming Ukraine, Putin’s invasion has actually transformed the country into one of Europe’s most formidable military powers.

The emergence of the Ukrainian army as a serious international fighting force can be traced back to the beginning of Russia’s invasion in 2014. At the time, decades of neglect and corruption had left Ukraine virtually defenseless. With the country’s existence under threat, a program of military modernization was rapidly adopted. During the following years, the Ukrainian Armed Forces expanded dramatically and implemented a series of far-reaching reforms in line with NATO standards.

Following the full-scale Russian invasion of February 2022, the transformation of the Ukrainian military entered a new phase. The number of men and women in uniform swelled to around one million, making the Ukrainian army by far the largest in Europe. They have been backed by a domestic defense industry that has grown by orders of magnitude over the past three years and now accounts for around 40 percent of Ukraine’s military needs.

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For today’s Ukraine, a strong domestic defense sector is now a matter of national survival. During the initial stages of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian authorities relied heavily on military aid from the country’s partners. This support helped enable Ukraine’s early victories but was also often subject to prolonged delays that left Kyiv vulnerable to changing political priorities in various Western capitals.

The need for greater military self-sufficiency has been underlined in recent months by the return of US President Donald Trump to the White House. The new US leader has made clear that he does not intend to maintain United States military support for Ukraine, and plans instead to downgrade the overall American commitment to European security. This shift in US policy has confirmed the wisdom of Ukraine’s earlier decision to prioritize the expansion of the country’s domestic defense industry.

Ukraine’s growing military capabilities owe much to a defense tech revolution that has been underway in the country since 2022. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion, hundreds of Ukrainian companies have begun producing innovative new technologies for the military ranging from software to combat drones. By focusing on relatively simple and affordable defense tech solutions, Ukraine has been able to close the gap on Russia despite Moscow’s often overwhelming advantages in terms of manpower, firepower, and resources.

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More than three years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, it is now clear that wartime necessity has transformed Ukraine into perhaps the most agile and experimental military ecosystem in the world. Whereas Western arms procurement cycles typically span several years, Ukraine can translate ideas into operational weapons within the space of just a few months. This has helped establish Ukraine as a global leader in drone warfare. The country’s use of inexpensive FPV drones is increasingly defining the modern battlefield and now accounts for approximately 80 percent of all Russian casualties.

Ukraine’s domestic drone production capacity is growing at a remarkable rate. According to the country’s Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havryliuk, Ukrainian forces are currently receiving approximately 200,000 drones per month, a tenfold increase on the figure from just one year ago. Kyiv is also making rapid progress in the development of numerous other cutting edge military technologies including robotic systems, marine drones, and cruise missiles.

Ukraine’s dramatically expanded armed forces and groundbreaking defense tech sector make the country an indispensable partner for Europe. After decades of reliance on US security support, European leaders currently find themselves confronted with the new political realities of an isolationist United States and an expansionist Russia. In this uncertain environment, it makes good sense for Europe to upgrade its support for the Ukrainian army while deepening collaboration with Ukrainian defense tech companies.

European investment in the Ukrainian defense industry is already on the rise, both in terms of government donor funds and private sector investment. This trend looks set to intensify in the coming months as Ukrainians and their European partners increasingly acknowledge that their collective future security depends on closer cooperation. Russia’s invasion has forced Ukraine to become a major military power and a leading defense tech innovator. This status looks set to guarantee the country a position at the heart of Europe’s security architecture for many years to come.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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Ukrainian commanders are well aware that the recent lull in Russian battlefield gains may only be a temporary phenomenon as Putin’s army regroups following months of intense fighting. Officials and analysts in Kyiv are now warning that preparations are likely well underway for a major new Russian offensive that is expected to begin in the coming weeks and last until late in 2025.

Putin hopes this new campaign can help strengthen his position as negotiations intensify over a possible compromise settlement to end the war. Speaking last week in Paris, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the Kremlin dictator of “dragging out talks and trying to get the United States stuck in endless and pointless discussions about fake conditions just to buy time and then try to grab more land.”

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Russia’s modest battlefield gains since the start of the current year provide important perspective at a time when international media coverage and Western commentaries often create the misleading impression that Ukraine’s position is hopeless. In reality, the Ukrainian army has stood up to the full might of the Russian military for more than three years and represents a formidable obstacle to Putin’s plans for the complete subjugation of the country.

Today’s Ukrainian army is by far the largest and most experienced force in Europe, and is backed by a rapidly expanding domestic defense industry that already accounts for around forty percent of Ukraine’s military needs. Since early 2022, Ukrainian troops have succeeded in liberating around half of all the territory occupied by Russia, and have won a string of famous victories in the Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions.

Over the past three years, Ukraine has also emerged as a technologically advanced drone warfare superpower. Ukrainian drone manufacturers now produce millions of drones each year and continue to innovate on a daily basis. This is having a huge impact on the battlefield, where drones now account for well over half of all Russian casualties.

At sea, marine drones have enabled Ukraine to sink or damage around one-third of Russia’s entire Black Sea Fleet. This has transformed the Battle of the Black Sea and forced the remainder of Russia’s warships to retreat from Crimea. Meanwhile, Ukrainian commanders are using the country’s expanding arsenal of long-range drones and domestically produced cruise missiles to bring Putin’s invasion home by striking military and energy industry infrastructure deep inside Russia.

The remarkable evolution of the Ukrainian Armed Forces since February 2022 should give pause to all those who insist that Ukraine “has no cards” to play in future negotiations. While Kyiv cannot realistically hope to match Russia’s overwhelming advantages in terms of manpower, firepower, funding, and industrial capacity, Ukraine is now a major military power in its own right and will not agree to any peace deal that leaves the continued existence of the country in doubt.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Crucially, Ukraine’s army is backed by a highly innovative and rapidly expanding domestic military-industrial complex that is harnessing the excellence of Ukraine’s prewar tech sector and reviving long neglected Soviet era capabilities. Any discussion on the likely future course of the war against Russia and the terms of any peace deal must therefore take into account the fact that Ukraine is a now major military power in its own right.

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For the past year, international media coverage of Russia’s invasion has tended to create the impression that Putin’s army is slowly but surely grinding forward toward a costly but inevitable victory. The reality is less straightforward.

Russian troops reclaimed the battlefield initiative in early 2024 and have been advancing fairly steadily ever since, but they have only achieved relatively modest territorial gains while suffering record casualties. Analysts estimate that at the current pace, it would take Russia almost a century to complete the conquest of Ukraine.

Viewed from a broader perspective encompassing the entire full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s military performance becomes even more impressive. Since spring 2022, The Ukrainian Armed Forces have succeeded in liberating around half of all the territory seized by the Russian army, and have won a series of key battles in the Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions. Russia has been unable to capture and hold a single Ukrainian regional capital, and is still struggling to force Ukrainian troops out of Russia itself following Kyiv’s bold August 2024 cross-border incursion into the Kursk region.

Far beyond the battlefield, Ukraine has also overachieved. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian marine drones have revolutionized naval warfare and forced Putin to withdraw his fleet from Russian-occupied Crimea to the relative safety of Russian ports. Deep inside Russia, long-range Ukrainian drones strike at military assets, logistical hubs, and energy infrastructure with growing frequency.

Ukraine’s resilience owes much to the international military assistance the country has received. However, this support has often been subject to delays and has frequently fallen victim to political considerations that have cost Ukraine dearly. In order to minimize these vulnerabilities, the Ukrainian authorities have prioritized the development of the country’s domestic defense industry.

The results have been striking. In 2025, the overall capacity of Ukraine’s defense industry is expected to reach a new high of $35 billion, up from just $1 billion at the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion. While this capacity is not yet being fully utilized due to defense budget limitations, Ukraine now produces around one-third of all weapons, ammunition, and equipment used by the country’s armed forces. In critical areas such as drone production, the figure is now close to one hundred percent.

Meanwhile, Kyiv is encouraging international partners to invest in Ukrainian defense sector companies and finance weapons production in Ukraine. A number of countries have already responded by committing large sums and promoting joint projects within the Ukrainian defense industry. This trend is expected to gain pace during 2025 as the US pivot away from Europe fuels increased defense spending across the continent.

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Ukraine’s biggest defense industry success has been the development of the domestic drone manufacturing sector. On the eve of the full-scale invasion, the country boasted only a handful of drone producers. The sector has now mushroomed to include over 200 businesses producing millions of drones annually, with output expected to treble during the current year. In order to harness this rapidly growing strike potential and maximize battlefield impact, Ukraine last year established a special branch of the armed forces dedicated to drone warfare.

Ukraine’s emergence as a drone warfare superpower owes much to the country’s strong tech traditions and entrepreneurial spirit. Since 2022, Ukrainian drone developers have proved highly innovative and are now recognized internationally as world leaders in military drone technologies. “Foreign models are like Toyotas now, while Ukrainian drones are Mercedes. Ours are just leagues ahead,” one Ukrainian commander told Ukrainska Pravda recently.

Ukraine now has a formidable arsenal of drones for use on the battlefield, at sea, and for long-range attacks against targets across Russia. The country also has a growing collection of hybrid missile-drones and missiles. President Zelenskyy recently confirmed that Ukraine had carried out an attack with the domestically produced Long Neptune cruise missile for the first time, underlining the country’s growing potential to strike back at Russia. Further innovations are in the pipeline, with domestic missile production expected to increase in the coming months if Kyiv is able to secure the necessary additional funding.

The Ukrainian military still faces a range of major challenges. The biggest issue remains manpower shortages. So far, Kyiv has sought to address mobilization problems by updating training and offering recruits the opportunity to choose the unit they will serve in, but shortfalls persist. A new initiative aimed at potential recruits between the ages of eighteen and twenty-five was launched in February 2025, featuring attractive enlistment packages and one-year service contracts.

There is also no escaping the fact that Ukraine remains dependent on Western support in order to maintain the country’s war effort. While officials in Kyiv have spoken of increasing the share of domestically produced war materials to fifty percent, Ukraine cannot realistically expect to match Russia’s overwhelming advantages in manpower, firepower, industrial capacity, and financing without continued assistance from the West.

Despite these limitations, Ukraine’s growing military strength must be taken into consideration during coming negotiations over a potential compromise peace deal with Russia. While nobody in Kyiv would relish the grim prospect of fighting on without Western assistance, the country is far from defenseless and will not accept a bad peace that places Ukrainian statehood in jeopardy.

Russia made the mistake of underestimating Ukraine in 2022, and has since paid a terrible price. Three years on, there can be little doubt that the Ukrainian army is now the most powerful fighting force in Europe. This military reality will help shape the contours of any future peace deal. It should also guarantee Ukraine’s place at the heart of Europe’s changing security system as the continent adjusts to the new geopolitical realities of an isolationist United States and an expansionist Russia.

Serhii Kuzan is Chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center (USCC). He formerly served as an adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (2022-2023) and advisor to the Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (2014).

Trump’s energy sector ceasefire could be good news for Putin’s war machine

David Kirichenko — Thu, 20 Mar 2025 17:49:46 +0000

US President Donald Trump’s hotly anticipated March 18 call with Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to achieve any major breakthroughs, but it did result in preliminary agreement on a partial ceasefire covering attacks on energy infrastructure. The news was hailed by the White House as a significant step toward a future peace agreement. However, critics have noted that any pause in energy sector attacks may actually benefit Putin while limiting Ukraine’s ability to hinder the Russian war effort.

Putin has so far refused to join Ukraine in accepting a US proposal for a full ceasefire. Instead, during Tuesday’s telephone conversation he agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure for a thirty-day period. This appears to be a very calculated concession. It gives Trump something tangible to show for his peacemaker efforts, but at the same time allows Putin to draw out the negotiating process further while continuing efforts to weaken Ukraine militarily and diplomatically.

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Crucially, Russia may have much more to gain than Ukraine from a temporary energy sector ceasefire. While both countries have sought to target energy infrastructure, the timing of the proposed pause in attacks would appear to favor the Kremlin.

Since the first winter of the war, Russia has conducted a series of air offensives targeting Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure in a bid to break the country’s will to resist by leaving millions of Ukrainians without access to electricity and heating. These attacks have succeeded in destroying around half of Ukraine’s prewar power-generating capacity, and have resulted in periods of rolling blackouts across the country.

Faced with the unprecedented challenges presented by Russia’s ongoing bombardment, Ukraine has managed to adapt. The country has dramatically enhanced its air defenses since 2022, while the Ukrainian power grid has proved remarkably resilient. Kyiv has also received extensive financial and technical support from international partners, which has proved instrumental in the struggle to keep the lights on.

Seasonal changes are an additional factor shaping Russia’s bombing campaign. Despite multiple large-scale missile and drone attacks in recent months, Ukraine avoided a much feared energy collapse during the winter season. The arrival of spring is now expected to further undermine the effectiveness of Moscow’s energy sector offensive, with higher temperatures in Ukraine reducing demand for electricity, and longer days minimizing the psychological impact of blackouts.

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As the Kremlin struggles to destroy the Ukrainian power grid, Ukraine’s own campaign of airstrikes against Russia’s oil and gas industry has steadily accelerated. Ukrainian officials say these attacks are designed to weaken Russia’s wartime economy while also creating logistical headaches for Putin’s army in Ukraine.

The first attacks on Russian refineries took place during the early months of the war. However, Ukraine initially lacked the long-range firepower to mount a sustained air offensive, and was further hamstrung when the country’s international partners imposed restrictions on the use of Western weapons inside Russia.

The Ukrainian authorities responded to these limitations by prioritizing the development and domestic production of long-range drones and missiles. As Ukraine’s air arsenal has expanded, so have attacks on Russia’s vast energy industry. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries first began making headlines in spring 2024. There has been a further escalation in attacks during the first three months of the current year, reflecting Ukraine’s increased long-range capabilities and growing drone production.

Assessing the scale of the damage caused by these Ukrainian strikes is challenging. Amid tightening wartime censorship, Russia no longer publishes refining figures or other key industry data. Meanwhile, Kremlin officials remain tight-lipped and typically claim that any blazes captured on video are the result of falling debris from intercepted drones. However, according to Reuters data published in early February, Ukrainian drone attacks since the start of 2025 had succeeded in knocking out around ten percent of Russia’s total refining capacity.

The recent uptick in attacks may only be the beginning. Ukraine has ambitious plans for dramatically increased drone production, and is also developing a number of long-range weapons including missile-drone hybrids capable of striking targets deep inside Russia.

On March 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the latest breakthrough for the country’s missile program with the successful deployment of a domestically produced cruise missile. Called the Long Neptune, this Ukrainian cruise missile is adapted from the earlier Neptune model, which was designed for use against warships and was famously responsible for the sinking of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship, the Moskva, in April 2022. With a reported range of around one thousand kilometers, the Long Neptune has the potential to wreak havoc throughout Russia’s energy sector.

This is bad news for Putin, who is heavily dependent on the Russian oil and gas sector to fund and supply his war machine. With Russia’s air defenses already stretched thin in order to cover the front lines of the invasion in Ukraine, Putin now finds himself unable to adequately protect his energy industry from aerial assault. It is therefore hardly surprising that he has now agreed to a mutual pause in attacks that will keep his refineries, pipelines, and export hubs safe for at least a month. Any progress toward peace is certainly welcome, but Putin’s support for Trump’s partial ceasefire should be seen as a pragmatic move rather than an indication of his readiness to end the invasion of Ukraine.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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Ukraine’s innovative defense tech sector is the country’s trump card

David Kirichenko — Thu, 13 Mar 2025 21:50:27 +0000

As tempers flared last month during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s disastrous Oval Office confrontation with US President Donald Trump and Vice-President JD Vance, Trump offered a blunt assessment of Ukraine’s limited leverage in any future negotiations with Russia. “You don’t have the cards,” he told Zelenskyy. It is a message the US leader has repeated on multiple occasions as he seeks to broker a peace deal and end the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Trump’s logic is easy enough to understand. After all, Ukraine is currently locked into a brutal war of attrition against a far larger and wealthier enemy. For over a year, the Russian army has been slowly but steadily advancing as Ukraine struggles to address mounting troop shortages and encounters regular issues with the flow of military assistance from the country’s Western allies. If this continues, most observers believe Moscow’s overwhelming advantages in terms of manpower, firepower, and funding make eventual Russian victory virtually inevitable.

The Ukrainians are acutely aware that the odds are stacked against them. However, they also understand that Russia’s invasion represents an existential threat to their nation. This helps to explain the remarkable resilience displayed by Ukraine’s army and Ukrainian society as a whole. Faced with a fight for survival against a military superpower, Ukrainians recognize that they cannot realistically expect to match Russia in terms of conventional military strength. Instead, their country’s trump card in this uneven struggle is the innovative and rapidly expanding Ukrainian defense tech sector.

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Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion just over three years ago, an improvised industry of defense tech startups has mushroomed in garages, workshops, and warehouses across Ukraine. This trend has benefited from the country’s vibrant prewar IT industry, with many existing IT businesses and tech entrepreneurs switching their focus in 2022 to support the Ukrainian army.

This has led to dramatic increases in the domestic production of key items such as surveillance and attack drones, with Ukrainian developers engaged in a relentless daily race to stay ahead of their Russian adversaries. Hundreds of Ukrainian companies are now engaged in drone manufacturing, compared to a mere handful in 2021. The Ukrainian government recently unveiled plans to purchase around 4.5 million first person view drones in 2025, more than doubling last year’s number. This is enhancing Ukraine’s reputation as a global defense tech hub and boosting the country’s efforts to reduce its reliance on military aid from the West.

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Ukrainian drones are playing a key role in transforming the modern battlefield and are now responsible for around two-thirds of Russian losses, according to a recent report by the Royal United Services Institute. Ukraine’s progress has been so groundbreaking that leading Western defense companies are increasingly looking to learn from the country. For example, Silicon Valley companies are tapping into the know-how of Ukrainian drone makers, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The impact of Ukraine’s defense tech prowess is perhaps most evident in the Black Sea. At the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s navy was virtually nonexistent, while the dominance of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was taken for granted. Three years on, Ukraine has successfully leveraged low-cost, high-impact naval drones to offset Russia’s initial advantages and break the blockade of the country’s Black Sea ports.

Ukraine’s maritime drones have repeatedly proved their effectiveness, sinking or damaging numerous Russian warships and forcing Putin to withdraw the bulk of his fleet from Crimea to the safety of Russia itself. Despite the distances involved, Ukrainian naval drones are able to pose a threat to Russian shipping far from Crimea. In summer 2023, Ukraine launched a long-range drone attack that reportedly damaged a warship close the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, around six hundred kilometers from the nearest Ukrainian naval bases in the Odesa region.

Ukraine’s naval drone fleet continues to evolve at a rapid pace. In recent months, a new model equipped with missiles reportedly shot down a Russian helicopter over the Black Sea. Marine drones have also been developed as launch craft for aerial drones. Ukrainian officials claim these “miniature aircraft carriers” have already been used to hit Russian military targets in occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine. Looking ahead, the use of naval drones as platforms for aerial attacks could create opportunities for Ukraine to bypass Russian front line defenses and launch strikes from unexpected angles.

As Ukraine enters a fourth year of full-scale war against one of the world’s leading military powers, the need for continuous innovation on the battlefield and at sea remains critical. Ukraine’s remarkable success in the Battle for the Black Sea is an indication of what can be achieved when the Ukrainian military makes the most of the country’s innovative defense tech industry. Kyiv’s partners should take note of the key role being played by Ukrainian defense tech innovators and maximize their support for this strategically crucial sector.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

Beyond its financial contribution, the Ukrainian IT industry also plays a crucial role in employment. By 2024, Ukraine’s IT workforce had grown to more than 300,000 specialists, solidifying its position as a major employer and a pillar of Ukrainian economic stability in today’s wartime environment.

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The United States is already an important partner for Ukraine’s IT industry. In 2023, the US was the largest importer of Ukrainian IT services, accounting for $2.39 billion or 37.2 percent of the industry’s total exports. This presents opportunities for intensified bilateral collaboration in both the private and public sectors that have the potential to transcend the kind of aid-based relations found elsewhere in the region.

Ukrainian IT companies are not seeking handouts but are actively investing in the US market. Rather than displacing American jobs, they are creating new opportunities and fostering technological advancements. Importantly, these companies are not appropriating US technologies but are in many cases sharing their own advanced developments. This cooperative approach could strengthen both economies, reinforcing a business-driven relationship that aligns with the Trump administration’s strategic vision.

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The knowledge-based economy benefits immensely from such international partnerships. Unlike resource-dependent models, this framework ensures a two-way exchange of expertise. Ukraine’s IT professionals are already playing a significant role in cybersecurity, actively defending against digital threats and ensuring the integrity of critical infrastructure. From the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion, they have consistently delivered in even the most difficult of circumstances and have enhanced Ukraine’s global reputation as a leading tech nation.

Moreover, the war has propelled Ukrainian engineers to the forefront of innovation in autonomous systems including aerial, maritime, and other drone technologies. Many of Ukraine’s most recent innovations in the drone sphere leverage AI. The depth of experience gained in developing and deploying these systems under real combat conditions is unparalleled worldwide. For the US defense industry, collaboration with Ukraine in this domain could be invaluable, offering access to battle-tested innovations that have the potential to redefine modern warfare.

The obvious synergies between the US and Ukrainian tech industries extends beyond the private sector. Cooperation in areas such as dual-use technologies should be prioritized by both governments to enhance security and drive innovation. Strengthening this partnership could contribute to a safer and more prosperous future for both nations.

By leveraging Ukraine’s IT expertise, the United States can improve its own technological capabilities while supporting a partner nation at a critical time. This partnership can bring further economic and strategic benefits to both parties. As the Trump administration moves toward a business-driven approach to US foreign policy, strengthening ties with Ukraine’s IT sector could boost innovation and security while also offering a range of business opportunities.

Anatoly Motkin is president of StrategEast, a non-profit organization with offices in the United States, Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan dedicated to developing knowledge-driven economies in the Eurasian region. Hanna Myshko is regional director for Ukraine, Moldova, and the Gulf at StrategEast.

Given the benefits the Houthis continue to enjoy from shooting down these drones, the United States needs to adjust its drone deployment strategy to ensure that MQ-9 Reapers are less vulnerable to the militant group’s attacks.

The offensive

The surge of attacks on US UAVs and the anti-shipping campaign are major pieces of the Houthi’s latest offensive. Since mid-November 2023, the Houthis have held Red Sea freedom of navigation and seaborne commerce hostage, launching hundreds of attacks on merchant vessels. Framing its anti-shipping campaign as an act of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, the Houthis have delivered a severe blow to maritime traffic in the commercial artery connecting the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean.

Quickly after the Houthis’ campaign against Red Sea shipping began, the Yemeni armed group significantly broadened its targets to any ship owned or operated by international shipping lines whose vessels service Israel’s ports. Yet, the group’s limited identification and tracking capabilities led to attacks on ships with no official links to Israel, including occasional strikes on Chinese– and Russian-linked vessels (which have since been largely spared from Houthi attacks following Iran-facilitated deals to ensure their safe transit).

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As the Red Sea basin’s maritime security deteriorated in 2023, the United States and the European Union sought to deter the Houthis by setting up multinational naval coalitions: Operation Prosperity Guardian and Operation Aspides. Though successful in countering dozens of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, Western maritime security missions only partially restored the safety of shipping lanes. In 2024, the United States and the United Kingdom launched Operation Poseidon Archer to conduct precise air strikes on military targets in Yemen’s Houthi-controlled territories. The Houthi naval offensive’s operational tempo appears to have reduced in recent months, with the most recent attack on merchant ships occurring in mid-November 2024.

Since 2002, the United States has regularly fielded UAVs such as the MQ-9 Reaper for surveillance and strike missions in Yemen, especially for gathering intelligence on and eliminating operatives affiliated with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Despite their protracted deployment, the number of US drones lost to hostile fire was minimal, with only three MQ-9 Reapers shot down by the Houthis between 2017 and 2019.

During the Houthis’ anti-shipping campaign, there has been a marked escalation in the group’s tactical proficiency against US drones. Since November 2023, the Houthis have claimed responsibility for downing fourteen MQ-9 Reaper drones, in a series of attacks that have targeted US assets primarily in Marib and Sa’ada governorates. The intensifying operational tempo and increasing success rate of Houthi attacks on US drones are unprecedented, showcasing the militia’s improved marksmanship and expanding offensive capabilities.

While it isn’t clear what exactly is in the Houthi missile force, and thus is bolstering this offensive capability, a rough sense can be gleaned from Houthi military parades and from seizures of military-grade materials from dhows smuggling Iran’s lethal aid. The Houthi arsenal of surface-to-air missiles includes Russian-made missiles originating from prewar Yemeni army stocks, such as the SA-6/Faster (Innovator) surface-to-air missile and the Thaqib (Piercer) missile family. In addition, the Houthis claim to produce indigenous missile designs. However, those designs are either variants of Iranian weapon systems or based on Iran’s technology, such as the Sayyad-2C (Hunter) missile, the Saqr series (Iran’s 358 missile), and the Barq missile family (Iran’s Taer series).

Inside the Houthis’ strategy

Tactically, the Houthi shootdowns of MQ-9 drones primarily aim to blind the US intelligence and targeting systems. Operation Poseidon Archer significantly relies on data gathered by UAVs to plan US-UK joint air strikes on hostile ground targets in Houthi-controlled territories. Although designed to be a top-notch “hunter-kill” drone, the MQ-9 Reaper also plays an important role in intelligence gathering, surveillance, and recognition thanks to its twenty-four-hour endurance and maximum operational altitude of fifty-thousand feet. The intensification of Poseidon Archer’s precision strikes on Houthi radar, storage, and launch sites compelled the group to rely more on underground facilities and hideouts in Yemen’s rugged interior. The Houthis’ efforts to conceal strategic sites have heightened the Western coalition’s dependence on UAVs to collect actionable intelligence on military installations.

For the Houthis, the shootdowns of US drones also hold symbolic value. Direct armed confrontation with the United States and Israel is part and parcel of its ideological foundation. Wanting to be seen as capable of standing up to the United States, the Houthis have heavily propagandized the downing of MQ-9 Reapers. For instance, as noted by Mohammed Al-Basha (founder of the consultancy Basha Report), the Houthis have turned the US UAV into the main character of a satirical song titled baw-wart (“useless” in local slang) that mocks the drone’s poor combat capabilities.

The Houthis have also sought to strengthen domestic political legitimacy and gain regional recognition by attacking US aerial assets. The shootdowns of US drones boost morale for Houthi supporters at a time of great hardship under Western and Israeli air strikes. From a regional standpoint, claiming the destruction of MQ-9s has allowed the Houthis to portray themselves as the most lethal member of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance and to win the sympathy of anti-US and pro-Palestinian voices in the Arab world.

However, the Houthis’ claims warrant skepticism. The insurgent group is well known for its propaganda operations, including wielding unverifiable declarations to inflate the perception of its military performance. Since the anti-shipping campaign’s onset, the Houthis have often vaunted successful strikes on US naval assets deployed in the Red Sea, although US Central Command has been swift to say such claims are false. Similarly, the downing of MQ-9 Reapers represents a powerful attention-grabber to trumpet the Houthis’ offensive air warfare capabilities. Factual or not, these claims serve to inflate the Houthis’ perceived combat strength and burnish their image as a militia capable of confronting US forces head-on.

The Houthis’ dangerous partners

Although the MQ-9 Reapers have been shot down over Yemen, the negative ramifications of these Houthi attacks on US military assets could spill over beyond the country’s borders. After the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, there has been a marked acceleration in military cooperation, diplomatic coordination, and symbolic support between the Houthis and Iran (the group’s most crucial lifeline), Russia, China, and other regional armed groups in the Tehran-led Axis of Resistance.

Russia has significantly deepened political engagements with the Houthis, showcasing diplomatic solidarity with the group’s military actions and offering a counterweight to Washington’s hardline position against it at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). In addition, US intelligence revealed that Iran mediated talksbetween Russia and the Houthis that led to Moscow supplying Russian-made advanced anti-ship cruise missiles to the group. It also reported the forward basing of Russian military advisors in Yemen, which allegedly provided the Houthis with ship tracking data and targeting guidance to increase the precision of attacks on commercial shipping.

Similarly to Moscow, Beijing seems to have intensified engagement with the Houthis since mid-November 2023. Beijing reportedly struck a deal with the militia to ensure safe passage for Chinese-flagged commercial ships. The Houthis have allegedly benefitted from China’s neutral stance at the UNSC and the procurement of Chinese-made military and dual-use components to support its domestic military-industrial base.

While motivated by different strategic goals, each of these actors share similar deep-rooted anti-West sentiments, a common denominator that the Houthis have sought to leverage to their advantage. In this regard, the militant group could offer Yemen and the Red Sea as battlegrounds from which Washington’s adversaries can get their hands on US military hardware. Anti-Western forces could have their eye on accessing US-made technology components for multiple purposes: They could attempt to reverse engineer the components, design tailored countermeasures, and obtaining potentially sensitive information stored in the MQ-9 Reapers. For Iran, getting access to US military equipment has long been a coveted prize. For instance, in mid-2019, Iran rushed to retrieve a US Navy MQ-4C Triton that the IRGC shot down over the Strait of Hormuz. But getting access to US-made technology could prove useful for others as well, including China, which faces heightening competition in the Indo-Pacific.

Bolstering the MQ-9 Reaper’s defenses

The MQ-9 Reaper is the backbone of the United States’s UAV fleet, providing US military planners with tactical depth into Yemen’s rugged interior. However, despite its technical edge over the Houthis’ missile force, it has proved vulnerable to basic anti-air weapon systems. Undoubtedly, the deployment of drones remains a preferable alternative to manned aircraft when operating in a high-risk environment such as Yemen. Yet, the rate of MQ-9 drones lost in combat since mid-November 2023 warrants attention from US military strategists. MQ-9 Reapers are worth around thirty million dollars apiece, and losing them at this pace—nearly one a month over the fifteen-month anti-shipping campaign, according to Houthi claims—is not sustainable.

Although the Houthi missile arsenal remains a low-tier threat to US aerial assets, the group has proved capable of partially blunting the United States’ combat edge, denting US air superiority, and exposing significant vulnerabilities in the MQ-9 Reaper’s defense layers. Washington’s adversaries could seek to capitalize on these gaps to further their strategic interests. After the Israel-Hamas cease-fire was brokered in January, the Houthis vowed to scale down their naval offensive, but freedom of safe navigation is far from being restored in the Red Sea. Washington should take advantage of the current lull in Houthi attacks to adjust its drone deployment strategy and accelerate the integration of self-protection kits into the MQ-9 Reaper that bolster its survivability against hostile fire. For example, such kits could include active and passive countermeasure systems against cyber and radio frequency or infrared threats.

Since November 2023, the Houthis have successfully turned the shootdowns of MQ-9 drones into a propaganda boon to tout their military performance domestically and abroad. Should the group conclude that keeping up attacks on US aircraft pays dividends, the Houthis are likely to intensify strikes on US assets. The group’s strong determination to heighten military confrontation with Washington can be seen in attempted strikes on February 19, in which Houthi rebels reportedly fired surface-to-air missiles at a US F-16 fighter jet and MQ-9 Reaper drone (but the missiles did not strike their targets).

The United States needs to keep its guard up. As the security conditions remain volatile in the Red Sea, MQ-9 Reaper drones are poised to keep playing a paramount role in strengthening the United States’ threat awareness over the Houthi menace.

Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco is a researcher who focuses on the security affairs of the Gulf region. He is also an analyst at Gulf State Analytics, a Washington DC-based geopolitical risk consultancy. Follow him on X: @mazz_Leonardo.

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Warrick quoted in Salon on the lack of answers fueling drone paranoia in the US

Atlantic Council — Tue, 25 Feb 2025 18:14:26 +0000

original source

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Ukrainian drones reportedly knock out 10 percent of Russian refining capacity

Peter Dickinson — Thu, 13 Feb 2025 22:17:50 +0000

Ukraine’s recent campaign of drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure has succeeded in knocking out around one-tenth of Russia’s refining capacity, according to analysis by news agency Reuters.

Since the beginning of 2025, Ukraine has launched a wave of long-range drone attacks against military and industrial targets inside Russia. The Kremlin remains tight-lipped over the impact of these air strikes, but open source data and media reports point to significant damage to at least eight Russian refineries along with a number of oil depots and key logistical points such as pumping stations and ports used for oil and gas exports. The range of targets suggests a well-planned Ukrainian campaign to methodically dismantle Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Ukraine’s bombing offensive is proving effective. Calculations by Reuters analysts based on oil industry trading figures covering the period from January to early February 2025 indicate that Ukrainian drone attacks have disabled approximately 10 percent of Russia’s refining capacity. Coupled with the impact of recently imposed United States sanctions against the Kremlin’s shadow fleet of oil tankers, this is expected to leave Moscow with no choice but to slow oil production in the coming months.

Reports of significant disruption to Russia’s energy industry will be welcomed in Kyiv. Ukrainian officials have made no secret of their intention to target the Russian oil and gas sector, which serves as the economic engine of Vladimir Putin’s war machine. The first Ukrainian attacks took place during the initial months of the war, with a marked increase in frequency during 2024. Ukraine’s air offensive against Russia’s energy industry now appears to be entering a new phase of heightened intensity.

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Ukraine’s efforts to bring Putin’s invasion home to Russia have been hampered by restrictions imposed on the use of Western-supplied weapons amid a reluctance among Kyiv’s partners to risk escalating the conflict. The Kremlin has skillfully exploited these fears, with Putin warning explicitly in September 2024 that any attempt to lift restrictions on long-range strikes would mean NATO and Russia were “at war.”

In order to bypass Western restrictions, Ukraine has prioritized the domestic production of long-range drones and missiles capable of striking targets deep inside Russia. Thanks to Ukraine’s innovative defense tech sector and the country’s strong aerospace legacy from the Soviet era, progress has been rapid. In late 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy showcased a number of new domestically produced drones and missiles with expanded ranges and payloads.

Ukrainian officials have stated that they intend to manufacture 30,000 long-range drones and 3000 missiles during the current year. Some of Kyiv’s Western partners also appear to recognize the strategic importance of Ukraine’s growing long-range arsenal, and are providing financing for production along with technical support. However, it will still be some time before Ukraine has sufficient long-range firepower to seriously threaten Russia’s ability to wage war.

At present, Ukraine’s air offensive is achieving the more limited goals of disrupting Russia’s energy industry, stretching the Kremlin’s limited air defenses, and undermining Moscow’s efforts to insulate ordinary Russians from the war. Since the onset of the full-scale invasion three years ago, Putin has been careful to cultivate a business-as-usual climate within Russia itself. Ukraine’s eye-catching daily strikes on oil refineries and storage depots are now sending a powerful message to the Russian public that the war unleashed by the Kremlin in February 2022 will not be fought exclusively on foreign soil.

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Ukraine’s expanding arsenal of domestically produced long-range weapons is particularly important at a time of growing uncertainty over the future of US military aid for the country. Throughout the war, the Ukrainian military has been heavily reliant on the United States and other Western partners for vital weapons supplies. However, there are now mounting concerns in Kyiv that US President Donald Trump’s efforts to reach a compromise peace deal with Putin could leave Ukraine isolated and vulnerable to further Russian aggression.

In the absence of credible NATO-style security guarantees, Ukrainian leaders believe one of the few reliable deterrents would be the proven ability to strike back powerfully at targets inside Russia. Zelenskyy’s “victory plan,” which he presented to Western partners in the final months of 2024, included a call for the supply of long-range missiles as part of a “non-nuclear deterrence package” designed to prevent a fresh Russian invasion. In his traditional New Year address, Zelenskyy spoke at length about Ukraine’s numerous new missile models, calling them “arguments for a just peace.”

There is currently very little to suggest that Putin is interested in any kind of peace with Ukraine, of course. On the contrary, he looks to be more confident of victory than ever, and appears unwilling to compromise on his original war aim of extinguishing Ukrainian statehood. However, if Ukraine can continue escalating its current wave of attacks on Russia’s economically vital but vulnerable energy industry, the Russian dictator may be forced to reassess the prospects of his invasion.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Ukraine’s ability to adapt has been further demonstrated through the innovative use of civilian infrastructure and technologies. Ukrainian SOF units have effectively incorporated commercial drones, civilian communications networks, and other non-military technologies, showing remarkable creativity in overcoming resource constraints.

One of the most significant lessons from the conflict has been the effective integration of SOF units with conventional military forces engaged in large-scale combat operations. Ukrainian SOF units also played a vital role in preparing the battlefield before and during the initial phases of the invasion. They established networks of resistance, gathered intelligence, and identified key targets that would later prove crucial for conventional forces.

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Ukraine’s achievements since 2022 have owed much to years of solid preparations. Following Russia’s occupation of Crimea in 2014, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces underwent significant transformation with assistance from NATO countries, particularly the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada. Between 2015 and 2021, Ukraine also implemented major structural reforms to align with NATO standards, including the establishment of dedicated SOF training centers.

These steps helped lay the foundations for a sophisticated network of resistance capabilities across potential invasion routes by early 2022. Ukrainian SOF units mapped key infrastructure, identified potential targets, and established relationships with local civilian networks, while developing protocols for rapid information sharing between SOF units, conventional forces, and civilian resistance elements. These preparations proved vital, enabling Ukrainian forces to target Russian supply lines, command nodes, and communications systems using real-time intelligence.

Throughout the invasion, coordination between Ukrainian SOF units and conventional forces has enabled effective combined arms operations. SOF units frequently act as forward observers, providing targeting data to artillery units and conducting battle damage assessments. The ability to rapidly share intelligence has been particularly important in urban environments, where the complexity of the battlefield requires close cooperation between different military elements.

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Russia’s invasion has reinforced the importance of unconventional warfare in modern conflicts. Ukrainian SOF units have successfully employed various unconventional warfare techniques that have had strategic impacts far beyond their tactical execution.

Ukraine’s implementation of guerrilla tactics and sabotage alongside partisans has been highly effective, with numerous successful operations conducted behind enemy lines. This has included the disruption of Russian supply lines, targeting of key military infrastructure and command centers, and the execution of precision strikes on high-value targets.

The psychological aspect of warfare has proven equally important, with Ukrainian SOF units making significant contributions to information warfare campaigns that have influenced both domestic and international audiences. They have conducted deception operations that have complicated Russian planning and operations, while also executing morale operations targeting both enemy forces and occupied populations.

The successful integration of modern technology has been a key characteristic of Ukrainian SOF operations. Despite facing a far wealthier and numerically superior adversary, Ukrainian SOF units have leveraged various technological capabilities to maintain operational effectiveness. They have utilized commercial technologies for reconnaissance and surveillance, integrated drone operations into tactical planning and execution, and leveraged artificial intelligence and big data analytics for targeting and planning.

Ukraine’s SOF operations provide several critical lessons for the country’s Western partners. In terms of doctrine development, it is clear that military organizations must emphasize flexibility and adaptability in force structure and training, while integrating SOF capabilities more deeply in support of conventional forces.

The importance of technological integration and adaptation cannot be overstated. Future military forces must be prepared to operate in environments where commercial technology plays an increasingly important role, and where the ability to utilize these technologies can provide crucial advantages. In terms of equipment, Western planners should focus on communications jamming and interception, improved surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, and integrating AI tools to aid in intelligence collection and analysis.

The role of Ukrainian SOF operations in the current war provides valuable insights for military forces worldwide. Their impact demonstrates the critical importance of adaptability and the effective use of technology in modern warfare. These lessons are particularly relevant as military organizations prepare for future high-intensity conflicts in increasingly complex operational environments.

Doug Livermore is national vice president for the Special Operations Association of America and deputy commander for Special Operations Detachment–Joint Special Operations Command in the North Carolina Army National Guard. The views expressed are the author’s and do not represent official US Government, Department of Defense, or Department of the Army positions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently used his daily video address to emphasize the importance of his country’s air offensive. “I would like to thank all developers and producers of our long-range drones and missiles,” he said on January 26. “Everyone can see their effectiveness. Our weapons are bringing the war back to Russia and reducing Russia’s military potential.”

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Ukraine’s early 2025 bombing campaign owes much to advances made in the development of the country’s drone fleet. Speaking in January, Ukrainian officials claimed the military now has drone models capable of reaching targets located up to 2000 kilometers inside Russia. “Our main goal is to conduct strikes to hit logistics hubs in the rear, ammunition warehouses, and decrease our enemy’s pressure on the front,” commented a battalion commander of Ukraine’s 14th Unmanned Aerial Systems Regiment, which is focused specifically on long-range strikes.

In addition to drones, Ukraine’s air offensive is also utilizing the country’s growing missile arsenal. Since 2022, the Ukrainian authorities have revived the domestic missile industry following decades of stagnation as part of efforts to boost firepower and reduce reliance on Western arms supplies. This has resulted in the development of numerous new models including the Palianytsia, Peklo, Ruta, Neptune, and Sapsan missiles. However, scaling production remains a major challenge requiring significant investment, foreign partnerships, and secure manufacturing locations to evade Russian attacks.

A number of Western allies such as Britain and Denmark are already stepping up support for Kyiv’s missile program, which is seen as a cost-effective way of supporting the Ukrainian war effort. Deploying domestically produced Ukrainian missiles also reduces the risk of potential escalations from the use of Western-supplied weapons against targets inside Russia, a key concern among Kyiv’s partners. While this offers obvious advantages, progress is unlikely to be rapid. On the contrary, some experts believe Ukraine will need at least another year before it can increase missile production to levels that could pose a serious threat to Russia.

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Ukraine’s bombing campaign has a number of strategic goals. Most immediately, it disrupts the logistics of Russia’s invasion and increases the cumulative strain on supply chains while reducing the output of Putin’s defense industry. Attacks on energy infrastructure such as ports and refineries are designed to weaken a central pillar of Russia’s war economy, limiting the Kremlin’s ability to generate vital energy export revenues.

Airstrikes deep inside Russia also play a significant role in shaping perceptions of the war. For the Ukrainian public and international audiences, these attacks are convincing evidence of Ukraine’s mounting ability to strike back against Russia despite the Kremlin’s overwhelming advantages in both manpower and firepower. The lack of an emphatic response from Moscow is also further eroding notions of Russian red lines and encouraging Ukraine’s Western allies to overcome their fear of escalation.

Meanwhile, increasing Ukrainian drone and missile strikes are sparking public alarm in Russia and directly undermining the Kremlin’s painstaking efforts to shield ordinary Russians from the consequences of the invasion. Much like Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, the attacks confirm that the war cannot be contained within the borders of Ukraine and will increasingly spread to Russia itself.

From a longer term perspective, officials in Kyiv hope Ukraine’s proven ability to strike targets deep inside Russia can strengthen the country’s position in possible negotiations and serve as a powerful deterrent against future Russian aggression. With this in mind, Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine’s rapidly evolving drone and missile programs are “our arguments for a just peace.” In order for that argument to be truly persuasive, Ukraine will need to continue increasing the frequency of long-range drone strikes, while also significantly expanding the country’s domestic missile industry.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

North Korea is using Russia’s Ukraine invasion to upgrade its army

Alina Hrytsenko — Thu, 23 Jan 2025 19:09:38 +0000

The first North Korean soldiers were taken prisoner by Ukraine in early January, providing final confirmation of the Hermit Kingdom’s involvement in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine following initial reports in late 2024. The participation of North Korean troops represents a dangerous escalation in what is already the largest European war since World War II, with potentially alarming implications for global security.

Pyongyang’s support for the Russian war effort began in late 2022 with the delivery of artillery shells. The list of armaments was subsequently expanded to include ballistic missiles. These supplies have helped Russia maintain the momentum of its invasion despite the country’s significantly depleted stores of munitions. With Moscow now also facing manpower shortages and reluctant to order a fresh round of mobilization, the arrival of North Korean troops helps relieve domestic pressure to recruit more Russians for the war.

While no official data is available, Ukrainian, US, and South Korean sources have estimated that North Korea has sent at least 11,000 soldiers to join Russia’s invasion. Some are believed to be drawn from highly trained elite units. Materials found on dead North Korean troops and battlefield accounts from Ukrainian forces indicate that the heavily indoctrinated North Koreans have been ordered to kill themselves if necessary to avoid being captured alive and taken prisoner.

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Pyongyang has a very specific interest in sending troops to fight against Ukraine. While the deployment is unlikely to dramatically alter the battlefield situation in the Kremlin’s favor, it allows the North Koreans to acquire priceless combat experience, test weapons systems, gain access to Russian military technologies, and secure Moscow’s further assistance in countering UN sanctions.

North Korea currently boasts one of the world’s largest armies with around 1.3 million active soldiers. However, unlike Russia, the Korean People’s Army (KPA) has not been directly involved in any major wars for many years. This lack of battlefield experience is a source of considerable concern for North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, who is anxious to counter South Korea’s more technologically advanced military.

Sending thousands of troops to fight in the Russian invasion of Ukraine provides the KPA with valuable insights into what is widely recognized as the most technologically advanced battlefield environment in the history of warfare. North Korean soldiers are now learning the realities of modern drone warfare first-hand. As a result, North Korea will be “more capable of waging war against its neighbors,” senior US officials have warned.

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Ukrainians have been impressed by the skill and tenacity of the North Koreans they have encountered, including their ability to shoot down drones. “They are young, motivated, physically fit, brave, and good at using small arms. They are also disciplined. They have everything you need for a good infantryman,” Ukrainian army spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Yaroslav Chepurnyi told POLITICO.

North Korea is believed to receive significant financial and technological incentives for supplying Putin with soldiers. South Korean intelligence officials estimate that Moscow is paying Pyongyang $2000 per solder each month. While this money is no doubt welcome, the real prize is access to advanced Russian military tech. In exchange for troops, North Korea is believed to be receiving support from Moscow that will help upgrade its military, including the country’s anti-aircraft, submarine, and missile capabilities.

The Ukrainian front also serves as a valuable testing ground for North Korea, allowing the country to assess the effectiveness of the weapons it supplies to Russia. This will make it possible for Pyongyang to improve the quality of its own domestic arms industry and adapt future output to the realities of the modern battlefield. Meanwhile, the troops who survive their time on the Ukrainian front lines are expected to return home and become instructors, sharing their knowledge of modern warfare with colleagues.

At this point, North Korea’s participation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine looks to be less about supporting Putin’s imperial ambitions and more about upgrading Kim Jong Un’s war machine. In the short term, the presence of North Korean soldiers is allowing Russia to overcome mounting manpower shortages. But with Russia believed to be losing tens of thousands of troops each month, there is little chance that Pyongyang will be able to fully satisfy Moscow’s insatiable demand for additional manpower.

Looking ahead, the historically unprecedented appearance of North Korean soldiers on the battlefields of Europe could alter the security equation on the Korean peninsula and beyond. “For the first time in decades, the North Korean army is gaining real military experience,” commented Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andrii Yusov. “This is a global challenge. Not just for Ukraine and Europe, but for the entire world.”

Alina Hrytsenko is an analyst at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies.

A better way to ensure public safety and security from drones

E. Aaron Brady — Thu, 23 Jan 2025 15:51:07 +0000

Last month, many Americans on the East Coast were watching the skies, and not just for Santa and his flying reindeer. In December, the news was full of reports of unidentified drones spotted over New Jersey and New York. Many of these flights were perfectly legal, yet some flouted existing regulations, including airspace violations over airports and military facilities. At the time, then President-elect Donald Trump, Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), and several other prominent US politicians called for the drones to be shot down. Some leaders, such as Governor Kathy Hochul of New York, demanded policy changes to address the uncertainty and concern the drone reports caused. A month has passed since these reports, and the issue seems to have faded into the background. But it would be a mistake not to draw important lessons from this episode. As private and commercial small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) continue to proliferate, similar situations are likely to occur in the future, and they could be more disruptive than the brief dustup in December.

The core issue underlying the New Jersey drone concerns is one of public perception. Citizens felt unsafe and political leaders searched for solutions. Potential solutions generally fell into two groups: intervention and policy change. However, existing policy is not lacking; rather, the main impediment is that local and state authorities need the capability to respond meaningfully to sUAS incidents. To ensure public safety and security, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) should work with local and state authorities to implement law enforcement networks based on the principles seen in military integrated air defense networks, although at a smaller (and less expensive) scale.

Current policies

Since its inception in the 1950s, the FAA has been responsible for almost all aviation matters, including airspace management and enforcement. In 2012, Congress mandated that the FAA plan for sUAS usage by both private and commercial operators. In 2016, the agency published Part 107 to fulfill the mandate. Among other rules, sUAS operators were required to remain below four hundred feet above the ground, and night flights required anti-collision lights visible from at least three miles away. Notably, since 2021, sUAS have been required to broadcast an identification signal referred to as Remote ID. This signal is effectively a digital license plate, both identifying the drone and providing the operator’s location.

The regulatory policies failed in December because authorities could not identify the sUAS or their operators. However, it remains unclear if the policies failed because the sUAS were not in compliance or simply because authorities did not possess the ability to receive the Remote ID information. A June 2024 Government Accountability Office report suggested that in earlier instances of drone encounters, the latter cause was more likely than the former. Additionally, since many of the drones in December were spotted because they were following anti-collision light regulations, it stands to reason that many of the drone operators may also have been complying with Remote ID requirements. The question stands: Did enforcement agencies simply lack the capacity to receive the broadcasted information?

The issue of enforcement

Considering the issues with Remote ID described above, it is unlikely that the regulations themselves were the failure point. It’s more likely that authorities instead lacked both the ability to address public concerns by being able to identify the drones and the capability to intervene in those sUAS flights that were violating the law.

This is partly because the FAA, while focused on safety, is the agency responsible for aviation enforcement. But the FAA lacks the ability to rapidly respond to sUAS incidents and instead relies heavily on local and state authorities to deal with such incidents. The enforcement question, therefore, is what do local and state law enforcement agencies need to effectively police the low-altitude skies?

Police regularly patrol to detect potential legal violations and intervene quickly when necessary. The same logic should hold true for the very low-altitude area in which sUAS operate. While the FAA should retain overall authority for this region, local and state authorities should actively police this domain to ensure compliance with federal statutes and FAA regulations. The National Guard and state militias may be able to assist with some of these operational problems, and military concepts related to air defense illustrate how law enforcement agencies might best resolve this issue.

Integrated air defense systems

Militaries develop aggregated networks known as integrated air defense systems (IADS) to defend airspace. IADS are not unitary systems; they can range from basic to incredibly complicated systems of systems. Broadly speaking, IADS are comprised of three components: air surveillance, weapons control, and battle management.

Air surveillance makes up the systems and processes which detect, identify, and track air objects. Air surveillance is synonymous with the detection function in UAS security discussions. Weapons control is target engagement. Within weapons control there may be several processes occurring to acquire, track, and engage the target. Depending on the engagement system, this can be as simple as pulling a trigger or it can be a complicated sequence of actions to operate an advanced device.

The gap within UAS security discussions is battle management. One description of IADS states that battle management includes: threat evaluation, engagement decision, weapon selection, and engagement authority. This is the critical missing piece to the domestic counter-UAS discussion. Someone must assess what is happening in the air and decide what to do. Clearly, UAS flying in the United States does not constitute a “battle.” Nevertheless, the concept of a centralized command-and-control node holds true, and such a system would likely have prevented much of the public furor in December.

Completing the “enforcement chain”

How might the incident in December have been different with these capabilities? Imagine a management center receiving surveillance information to quickly resolve calls from concerned citizens to identify the drones. State police could have responded to illegal activity and handled the situation, including the ability to safely neutralize the drone if necessary.

A state-wide management center might have received surveillance information of the low-altitude air domain to both identify potential enforcement issues and to serve as a primary conduit to other agencies, especially the FAA’s Law Enforcement Assistance Program (LEAP), if questions arose or authorities perceived a need for intervention. Given the FAA’s area of responsibility, any direct intervention against sUAS should only be conducted with FAA approval, unless local law enforcement must act to protect people or property. Yet, since there is a paucity of LEAP agents in the country, such a management center could dramatically improve coordination between local, state, and federal agencies.

Assessing the costs

These capabilities are costly but not cost prohibitive. Much like the FAA’s NextGen air traffic control system will rely on GPS-based position broadcasts from aircraft as opposed to traditional radars, a detection network can rely on Remote ID sensors rather than more expensive active sensors. If one assumes that many of the sUAS observed in December were complying with FAA regulations, then many could have been identified by an appropriate detector.

For example, Morris County, New Jersey, where the drone sightings began, is about 482 square miles in size and appropriated $77.8 million for public safety in 2024. Many commercially available Remote ID detectors can range between two and five miles, and some can sense much farther. These detectors range in cost between $1,500 and $3,000 for mid-grade to advanced models. Assuming a three-mile detection range and not accounting for terrain, a detector network covering all of Morris County (an excessively large network) would require fewer than twenty detectors costing about $60,000, or less than 0.01 percent of Morris County’s annual public safety expenditures.

Networking the detectors and linking them to a management center would be more costly, of course, but certainly should be affordable, especially if spread over several years. In 2024, the state of New Jersey appropriated $880 million for public safety. A small fraction of this could be used over several years to develop the necessary infrastructure, which should be primarily software, and train a small crew to staff the center. Additionally, given the FAA’s overall authority, Congress could appropriate money to enable the FAA to create standards for these law enforcement centers and help design and field appropriate software applications.

In short, creating this system will not be free, but it need not be excessively expensive. One way that states can keep expenses low is to choose where to establish these capabilities. For example, it may not be necessary for a state like North Dakota to establish a surveillance network anywhere except over urban areas. Indeed, the North Dakotan government may not need to create a management center at all, relying instead on county or city governments to monitor and manage their areas. Each state and municipality will have its own priorities and physical characteristics influencing the design of the system. States are not trying to build military-grade IADS, but they should be trying to create an adequate law enforcement network for the low-altitude domain.

Securing the skies

Ensuring public safety in low-altitude domestic airspace requires governments to solve three problems. First, detection capabilities need to spread and should integrate to form a cohesive “picture” of the low-altitude air domain. Second, states need to establish basic management functions for very low altitude air law enforcement. Finally, authorities should procure and train personnel to use UAS mitigation systems. Some specific recommendations are:

Detection:

The FAA should accelerate the development of methods for local and state law enforcement to rapidly access Remote ID information.
States, in coordination with the FAA, should decide whether to build a state-wide detection network or focus on municipalities. A sparsely populated state should lean toward municipal networks while a very developed state should hew toward a state-wide network. Regardless, states and the FAA should ensure that data is networked together to form a coherent picture of airspace below 1,000 feet above the surface.

Management:

States or counties, in coordination with the FAA, should introduce a basic management center which can assess the information gathered by the detection network; act as a communications hub with other agencies, especially the FAA’s LEAP agents; and dispatch mobile mitigation teams.
The FAA should establish standards and help create baseline applications for centralized center usage.

Mitigation:

States or counties, in coordination with the FAA, should train and equip mitigation teams available to respond throughout an area to UAS incidents. Once on-scene, these teams should be able to identify specific UAS, neutralize or capture the UAS, and/or locate the operator based on Remote ID information for follow-on enforcement action.

Within each area, policymakers and leaders should recognize the overall authority of the federal government and the FAA over aviation. At the same time, Congress and the FAA should embrace the reality that local and state authorities will enforce UAS policy. Put simply, they are the ones who are there. This means that the federal government and the FAA should actively support state authorities in developing UAS security capabilities so that the next drone issue is mitigated before it becomes another drama like the one in December.

E. Aaron Brady is a US Air Force officer and A-10 instructor pilot with more than 2,500 flight hours currently serving as a national defense fellow at the Atlantic Council.

The views expressed in this article represent the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of the Department of Defense, the Department of the Air Force, the Air University, or any other US government agency.

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Ukraine’s escalating air attacks bring Putin’s invasion home to Russia

Maria Avdeeva — Thu, 16 Jan 2025 21:01:13 +0000

Ukraine launched what officials termed as the country’s “most massive” air attack of the war this week as Kyiv seeks to bring Putin’s invasion home to Russia. In the early hours of January 14, Ukrainian drones and missiles struck a series of strategic targets in multiple Russian regions including Bryansk, Saratov, Tula, and Tatarstan. The strikes at distances of up to 1000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border underscored Ukraine’s growing capacity to conduct long-range bombardments against high-value Russian targets.

This week’s attack was notable both for its scale and sophistication, with drones and missiles deployed in coordinated airstrikes that exploited the weaknesses of Russia’s air defenses. Representatives of Ukraine’s 14th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Aerial Systems confirmed that decoy drones were used to distract and overwhelm Russian air defenses, creating openings for missiles to hit primary targets. Once defenses were compromised, some targets were then struck by additional waves of long-range drones.

While Russian officials remain tight-lipped over the scale of the damage inflicted, media reports and open source data indicate that a range of military and industrial objects were hit. Targets included oil refineries and storage facilities, an airbase used for attacks against Ukraine, and various industrial plants involved in the production of materials critical for the Russian war effort.

These simultaneous strikes against multiple high-priority targets deep inside Russia highlight Ukraine’s ability to conduct increasingly complex long-range air operations. The attacks of January 14 required close coordination between Ukrainian drone and missile crews along with military intelligence and special operations units.

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Ukraine’s rapidly evolving drone industry is at the heart of the escalating air war inside Russia. Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion almost three years ago, Ukrainian drone production has increased dramatically, with hundreds of new companies from within Ukraine’s vibrant tech sector emerging to develop and manufacture a wide array of different drone models.

The Ukrainian authorities have sought to make the most of this potential, establishing the Brave1 platform in spring 2023 to streamline cooperation between the Ukrainian military, state organs, private sector developers, and investors. In summer 2024, Ukraine became the first country to establish a new branch of its military dedicated to drone warfare. The creation of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces underlined the country’s emphasis on innovation as Kyiv seeks to compensate for Russia’s often overwhelming advantages in terms of manpower, firepower, and other vital military resources.

In addition to an expanding arsenal of long-range strike drones, Ukraine is also working hard to develop domestic missile production. In recent months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has showcased a number of new missiles as Kyiv looks to reduce its dependence on Western partners for the supply of missiles capable of hitting targets inside Russia.

This emphasis on domestic drone and missile production is part of a broader shift away from reliance on foreign military aid. It also reflects longstanding frustration in Ukraine over the reluctance of the country’s partners to authorize attacks inside Russia due to fears of possible retaliation from the Kremlin. While US President Joe Biden partially lifted restrictions on strikes against Russian targets in late 2024, President-elect Donald Trump has since been critical of the decision. This has added weight to arguments that Ukraine must rely on its own drones and missiles to strike back against Russia.

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The impact of Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia goes far beyond disruption to military logistics, damage to oil refineries, and reductions in Russia’s military output. Together with the ongoing Ukrainian occupation of hundreds of square kilometers in Russia’s Kursk region, Ukraine’s air war is undermining the illusion of Putin’s invulnerability and eroding Russian confidence in the Kremlin’s ability to defend the country.

Since February 2022, the Putin regime has gone to great lengths to shield the Russian public from the consequences of the war in Ukraine while maintaining an air of normality. However, frequent footage on social media of burning Russian infrastructure and powerful Ukrainian airstrikes is now directly challenging Moscow’s tightly controlled narrative. This is causing a visible change in mood, with even leading regime propagandists such as Vladimir Solovyov now voicing their displeasure over the failure of Russia’s air defenses.

Growing signs of demoralization within Russia reflect the sobering realization that the country’s existing air defenses are unable to cope with Ukraine’s growing deep strike capabilities. For Kyiv, this represents an important window of opportunity. In all likelihood, Russia will eventually address the vulnerabilities of its vast military and industrial infrastructure to drone and missile attacks. However, if Ukraine can continue expanding the current air offensive in the coming months, it could succeed in striking a significant blow to the Russian war effort.

For now, Ukraine’s air attacks are sending a clear message to Moscow and to Kyiv’s own partners that the Ukrainian military is capable of escalating on its own terms and does not share Western concerns over so-called Russian red lines. Maintaining this momentum and securing the means to continue offensive strikes inside Russia will be paramount to determining not just the direction of the war, but also its eventual outcome.

Maria Avdeeva is a Ukrainian security analyst and strategic communication expert.

Emadeddin Badi and Abdullah al-Jabassini — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 16:55:22 +0000

The Mediterranean has always been a theater of rivalries, shifting alliances, and calculated gambles, and Turkey has once again thrown its dice. Ankara’s announcement of a potential Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) agreement with Syria’s new government mirrors Turkey’s 2019 maritime pact with Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA). That earlier agreement allowed Turkey to claim a foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean, reshaping regional dynamics to its advantage. Today, Ankara is pursuing a similar strategy in Syria, seeking to create facts on water as it did on land, using the promise of economic and political support to position itself as a dominant player in the country. These parallel maneuvers underscore Ankara’s broader vision of Libya and Syria as interconnected pillars of its geopolitical strategy in the Mediterranean, where actions in one arena bolster influence in the other.

Central to this strategy is Turkey’s proclivity to leverage military interventions, political agreements, and economic tools to advance its objectives. In Libya, Turkey’s 2019 intervention secured it a critical foothold through the deployment of drones, Syrian mercenaries, and direct military support. This allowed Ankara to negotiate an EEZ agreement that, from its vantage point, redefined maritime boundaries and challenged the claims of Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel. The agreement was not merely an economic gambit; it was a strategic move to confront Mediterranean rivals over territorial waters and energy resources. Five years later, Ankara is seeking to establish an EEZ agreement with Syria’s new government that would extend its maritime claims further into the Eastern Mediterranean. While Turkey frames these actions as legitimate assertions of its rights, regional powers are likely to view them as provocations that deepen tensions in an already volatile environment.

Balancing Russia in Libya

Libya occupies a central role in Turkey’s Mediterranean strategy, serving as a gateway for Ankara’s regional ambitions and a platform for projecting influence. The 2019 Memorandum of Understanding with the GNA, which established a long-contested maritime boundary, has been criticized for raising unresolved sovereignty issues and its questionable legality under international law. Beyond these legal challenges, Turkey’s position in Libya is further complicated by Russia’s entrenched involvement. Through the Wagner Group—recently rebranded as the Africa Corps—Moscow has bolstered Libyan National Army Commander Khalifa Haftar’s forces, securing itself its own foothold in Haftar’s areas of control. Reports of Russian arms transfers over Turkish-controlled airspace from Syria’s Hmeimim airbase to eastern Libya after the fall of Damascus exemplify the paradoxical nature of the Turkey-Russia rivalry. On the surface, such developments may appear transactional, but they reflect Ankara’s broader strategy: maintaining escalation dominance by setting boundaries on Russian operations while leveraging its role as a regional balancer to extract strategic advantages.

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This balancing act underscores Turkey’s calculated pragmatism in Libya, where collaboration with Russia acts as both a counterweight to regional adversaries and a measured gamble. By permitting Moscow’s logistical transfers, Ankara has transformed a potential liability into a tool of strategic leverage, subtly positioning itself to influence Russian ambitions in Africa while reaffirming its indispensability to NATO and fortifying its regional clout. However, this strategy is not without vulnerabilities. The delicate balancing required to manage Moscow’s activities leaves Ankara exposed to the risks of miscalculation, overreach, and dependency. Disruptions in its arrangement with Russia—or fractures in its relationships with NATO allies, regional powers, or Libyan factions—could unravel Ankara’s hard-won gains, imperiling its broader Mediterranean ambitions and leaving its geopolitical foothold exposed.

Flexing muscle in Syria

In Syria, Turkey’s intervention was initially driven by the need to address immediate security threats, primarily removing the self-proclaimed Islamic State and containing Kurdish forces seeking to expand territorial control in northern Syria. However, with the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad, Ankara recalibrated its approach, merging economic and geopolitical ambitions with its security objectives. The prospect of an EEZ agreement with Syria mirrors the dynamics of the 2019 Libya pact. While such a pact could offer maritime gains and deepen Turkey’s influence in the region, it is fraught with risks. Greece, Cyprus, and other European powers are likely to view such an agreement as an illegal and destabilizing move, further polarizing regional dynamics and intensifying disputes over energy and sovereignty.

Turkey’s approach in Syria also reflects its broader ambitions to integrate its strategies across theaters, enhancing its influence through interconnected policies. The country’s pursuit of maritime gains in Syria builds on the successes of its Libya agreement while highlighting the risks inherent in replicating this strategy in a different geopolitical context. The overlapping tensions in Libya and Syria demand constant recalibration, as Ankara navigates volatile rivalries and shifting alliances. The integration of its strategies underscores Turkey’s vision of the Mediterranean as a unified arena for projecting power.

However, significant challenges loom in Syria, the most salient of which stem from Israel. Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Israeli airstrikes have escalated, targeting countless military installations and destroying aircraft, radar systems, and missile sites. Simultaneously, Israeli forces have conducted incursions and expanded their presence beyond the occupied Golan Heights, particularly in the Quneitra province of southern Syria. These actions reflect dissatisfaction with Syria’s current trajectory. There is a widespread perception within Israel that Syria risks becoming a Turkish protectorate, a scenario that would severely constrain Israel’s military latitude in the region. This concern is compounded by the belief that Iran will continue to maneuver for influence, viewing Syria’s strategic assets as too valuable to relinquish. In this context, a Syria rebuilt under the leadership of Arab states is seen as a far more desirable outcome, curbing the influence of both Turkey and Iran while pre-emptively neutralizing their resurgence.

Should this vision prove unattainable, Israel may resort to curbing Turkish influence by undermining Syria’s unity, channeling support to ethnic and religious minorities to fragment the country and weaken Ankara’s position. This could set the stage for a potential collision course between the two. The interplay of this rivalry highlights the fragile nature of Ankara’s ambitions, with Israel emerging as perhaps its most formidable challenge. Tel Aviv’s ability to operate beyond traditional international norms, as starkly demonstrated in Gaza, and to secure the unwavering support of Ankara’s traditional Western allies—regardless of its methods—exposes the looming asymmetry Turkey faces in this geopolitical contest.

Strengthening influence in the Mediterranean

Anticipating the challenges to its broader Mediterranean aspirations, Turkey is building synergies between its strategies in Libya and Syria to maximize its leverage, reflecting its broader ambition to reshape the Mediterranean’s geopolitical map and strengthen its negotiating position. In Libya, Ankara has adapted to the shifting political landscape, engaging with Eastern Libyan factions and the Haftar family to expand its influence. This outreach signals a pragmatic shift from confrontation to cautious diplomacy, as Turkey seeks to transform former adversaries into cooperative stakeholders while navigating the crowded Libyan geopolitical arena. In Syria, Turkey’s political influence has positioned it as a linchpin for regional engagement with the Syrian government, mediating between Damascus and key external actors, including Arab states, European Union countries, and potentially Russia. Ankara’s subtle gatekeeper role sharpens its leverage, turning regional rivalries into stepping stones for its own ascent.

By aligning its strategies in Libya and Syria, Turkey seeks to consolidate influence and amplify its leverage across both theaters. This calculated approach underscores Ankara’s effort to position itself as an indispensable actor in the Mediterranean, translating tactical maneuvers into broader geopolitical gains while pre-empting challenges that threaten its ambitions. Yet, this high-stakes strategy leaves Turkey exposed. The overlapping tensions in Libya and Syria demand constant recalibration, as advances in one arena could rapidly unravel in another.

The return of US President-elect Donald Trump to the White House this month looms as perhaps the most significant determinant shaping the region’s dynamics. Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy could offer Ankara opportunities to assert itself more aggressively, particularly as it leverages its strategic position in the Mediterranean. However, this same approach raises the specter of greater US disengagement from regional conflicts, leaving Turkey to face escalating challenges from Moscow, Israel, and other regional powers without the backing of its traditional Western allies. The uncertainty of this geopolitical environment underscores the precariousness of Turkey’s gains, where advances in one theater could rapidly unravel in another, placing its broader Mediterranean strategy on a knife’s edge.

Ultimately, Turkey’s Mediterranean strategy reflects both ambition and vulnerability, a delicate dance on shifting sands where every advance risks triggering a cascade of challenges. Much like Ankara views Libya and Syria as interconnected theaters, Western actors should embrace this moment of change to recalibrate their bilateral relations with Turkey, recognizing shared interests in maritime stability and regional development.

In Libya, this means supporting a political process that moderates a Turko-Russian oligopolistic arrangement while promoting stability and inclusivity to align with shared Turko-Western priorities. In Syria, targeted sanctions relief and reconstruction efforts tied to an inclusive political framework can support stabilization efforts and address immediate needs. By anchoring their engagement with Turkey in mutual interests and shared goals, Western actors can transform competition into cooperation. This recalibration will be pivotal in shaping whether Turkey’s Mediterranean gambit becomes a cornerstone of regional stability or a foundation of enduring fragility.

Emadeddin Badi is a nonresident senior fellow with the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council.

Abdullah al-Jabassini is an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Europe.

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Ukraine hopes robot army can counter Russia’s battlefield advantages

David Kirichenko — Thu, 09 Jan 2025 16:38:26 +0000

In December 2024, Ukrainian forces operating north of Kharkiv reportedly conducted their first ever attack on Russian positions using exclusively unmanned technologies. This landmark military operation, which featured a combination of machine gun-equipped ground drones and kamikaze aerial drones, underscored Ukraine’s increasingly sophisticated use of robotic systems, while also highlighting the evolving role being played by these technologies on the modern battlefield.

As Ukrainian commanders prepare for a fourth year of combat in Europe’s largest war since World War II, they are now hoping that their country’s growing arsenal of robotic systems can help counter Russia’s often overwhelming advantages in both manpower and firepower. “Ukrainian officials have repeatedly highlighted Ukraine’s efforts to utilize technological innovations and asymmetric strike capabilities to offset Ukraine’s manpower limitations in contrast with Russia’s willingness to accept unsustainable casualty rates for marginal territorial gains,” noted the Institute for the Study of War in late 2024.

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Ukraine’s emphasis on unmanned robotic systems certainly makes good sense. While overall Ukrainian casualties during the first three years of the full-scale invasion are thought to be significantly lower than Russian losses, Russia’s far larger population means Ukraine has little prospect of success in a grinding war of attrition. Over the past year, reports of Ukrainian mobilization challenges and personnel shortages have become more and more frequent, with desertion rates also reaching record highs.

With the Ukrainian military outnumbered and outgunned, defense tech innovations have played an important part in Kyiv’s war effort since 2022. Many of Ukraine’s key advances have come via the country’s vibrant startup sector, much of which pivoted to military projects in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion. In July 2024, the Associated Press reported that Ukraine had developed an ecosystem of laboratories to create a robot army, with around 250 defense startups active in secret locations “that typically look like rural car repair shops.”

The Ukrainian government has sought to support these grassroots efforts with the creation of initiatives like the BRAVE1 defense tech cluster, which was established in spring 2023 to streamline cooperation between the private sector, the state, and the Ukrainian military. In a move hailed by officials in Kyiv as a unique development, Ukraine launched a dedicated drone warfare branch of the country’s military in summer 2024. The establishment of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces demonstrated that Kyiv was preparing for “the war of the future, not the war of the past,” commented USF commander Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi.

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Robotic systems alone cannot solve the Ukrainian military’s manpower shortages. At present, the focus is on developing technologies capable of performing a range of specific combat and logistical tasks. For example, Ukraine plans to deploy tens of thousands of robotic ground vehicles along the one thousand kilometer front line of the war during 2024. These systems will handle functions including mine-laying and de-mining, the delivery of ammunition and other supplies to troops in trenches, and the evacuation of wounded soldiers to rear positions where they can receive medical treatment.

Unmanned ground vehicles are seen by Ukrainian military planners as a particularly effective response to the ubiquity of reconnaissance and attack drones above the battlefield. With the entire front line area now under more or less constant surveillance, it can be extremely difficult for soldiers to move about above ground, and virtually impossible to travel in vehicles without electronic jamming devices. Robotic systems capable of operating in dangerous environments can go some way to addressing this problem, and can help make sure front line units are resupplied in a timely fashion.

The Ukrainian army’s use of robotic systems is already attracting consideration international attention. With new models typically undergoing testing in combat conditions, the cycle from development to deployment is often exceptionally dynamic, creating unprecedented opportunities for defense tech companies. Maintaining Ukraine’s current rapid pace of innovation is recognized as vital in order to remain one step ahead of Russia, which is also investing heavily in robotic systems and drones.

With Ukrainian efforts to implement AI technologies expected to advance in 2025, there are concerns that the fledgling robot armies currently taking shape on the battlefields of Ukraine could reduce the barriers to killing and dramatically escalate the potential for future conflicts. However, with their country fighting for survival, Ukrainian defense tech developers are primarily concerned with saving the lives of their compatriots and defeating Russia’s invasion.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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One particularly important category is interceptor drones. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is widely acknowledged as the world’s first large-scale drone war. Since February 2022, drone technologies have evolved at a remarkable rate. As attack and reconnaissance drones have become more and more ubiquitous above the battlefield, the need for effective interceptor drones has become increasingly apparent.

In April 2024, Ukraine launched a competition to identify the most effective interceptor drone solutions, with dozens of Ukrainian drone manufacturers participating. One of these models is already credited with around twenty confirmed hits on enemy spy drones and is now being used by Ukrainian drone units on the Kursk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia fronts.

Ukrainian drone producers have also managed to develop effective domestic alternatives to widely used Chinese drone models. This is a significant step forward. While Chinese drones have proved important workhorses of the drone war, their prominence has left Ukraine dangerously dependent on imports and vulnerable to possible disruption in supply chains. Domestically produced alternatives allow the Ukrainian military to reduce this reliance on China.

Ukraine’s efforts to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) technologies advanced in 2024, with the development of drones capable of locking onto targets identified by operators during the final phase of flight prior to impact. This helped neutralize Russian electronic warfare jamming technologies, which typically seek to disrupt the connection between drones and operators. Ukrainian developers are now working on the next stage in the evolution of AI-driven drones. The goal is to produce a new generation of drones that utilize artificial intelligence not only at the final targeting stage, but throughout their flight.

2024 was also the year when Ukraine brought Putin’s invasion home to Russia and made the enemy realize that their domestic front was no longer safe from attack. This was made possible thanks to a growing arsenal of long-range strike drones developed by Ukrainian manufacturers with ranges in excess of one thousand kilometers. Further long-range drone innovations are expected in 2025.

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The defense tech advances of the past year have had a significant impact on the Ukrainian war effort. However, it is important to underline that in modern warfare, the innovation contest is a constant struggle that requires a high degree of creativity, consistency, and coordination. With new technologies appearing on the battlefield on an almost daily basis, any delays in the chain from development to deployment can prove deadly.

Nobody can predict exactly what defense tech challenges may emerge during the coming months. Nevertheless, it is already possible to identify a number of strategic priorities for the Ukrainian military in 2025.

Ukraine’s domestic missile program gained pace in 2024 and is poised to play a far greater role in the war during the coming year. Producing missiles domestically allows Ukraine to attack targets inside Russia at a time when some of the country’s Western partners remain reluctant to authorize strikes for fear of escalation. Many of the breakthroughs achieved in this direction have already been made public. In 2025, Russia may be surprised to learn exactly how far Ukraine’s domestic missile production has advanced.

As the nature of drone warfare becomes ever more sophisticated, the tactics employed by drone forces are also evolving. Ukraine’s drone units are already beginning to move beyond the initial concept of “one drone, one operator,” and will be looking to transition toward more widespread use of drone swarm technologies in 2025. From a military perspective, it is critical for Ukraine to outpace the enemy in the deployment of this next generation technology.

Anti-drone defenses will also be a 2025 priority. Almost every single day, Ukraine is attacked by large numbers of Russian Shahed drones that frequently damage civilian targets including residential buildings and energy infrastructure. Russian drone production is rapidly increasing, with regular upgrades to drone design making these weapons difficult to counter. This will likely remain a major challenge for Ukrainian air defense teams and for the country’s defense tech industry throughout the coming year.

Nataliia Kushnerska is Head of Ukraine’s Brave1 defense tech cluster.

Five things Russia’s invasion has taught the world about Ukraine

Peter Dickinson — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 22:31:29 +0000

The war unleashed by Russia almost three years ago in Ukraine is rightly recognized as one of the great crimes of the twenty-first century. Understandably, little attention has been paid so far to the impact the conflict is having on Ukraine’s international image. And yet amid the trauma and horror of Russia’s invasion, there are growing signs that the unprecedented media spotlight on Ukraine since 2022 is gradually helping to transform global perceptions of the country. As a result, Ukraine is now finally emerging from a prolonged period of international obscurity that has hindered the country’s progress for centuries.

International ignorance of Ukraine has been a feature since long before the country regained independence in 1991. Following the Soviet collapse, little was done to address this lack of outside awareness or strengthen Ukraine’s national brand in the global arena. This low profile helped set the stage for Russia’s disinformation efforts, with foreign audiences often prepared to believe all manner of outlandish lies about a country that was otherwise unknown to them. Thanks to the recent media focus on Ukraine, Kremlin propagandists are now finding that their distortions are not so readily accepted. This is an ongoing process, but it is already possible to identify a number of important facts about Ukraine that have taken root in the international consciousness since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

1. Ukraine is not Russia

The fact that Ukraine is not Russia may seem insultingly obvious when viewed from a Ukrainian perspective, but in reality this was the fundamental image problem facing the country in 2022. Indeed, it is no coincidence that on the eve of the full-scale invasion, Vladimir Putin published an entire essay denying the legitimacy of a separate Ukrainian state on the grounds that Ukrainians are actually Russians (“one people”).

Putin did not invent this narrative of Ukraine denial himself. His predecessors have been insisting that Ukraine is an inalienable part of Russia since at least the eighteenth century, and have ruthlessly manipulated the historical record to support their arguments. Throughout the Tsarist and Soviet eras, anyone attempting to counter this Great Russian narrative or highlight Ukraine’s long statehood struggle was treated as a dangerous heretic subject to the harshest of punishments.

For generations, Russia was able to impose its imperial propaganda on international audiences, with Ukrainians silenced and Ukraine misleadingly portrayed as an intrinsic part of Russia’s own historical heartlands. It was therefore understandable that when an independent Ukraine appeared on the map in 1991, many had trouble distinguishing it from Russia. This created much confusion and went some way to legitimizing subsequent Russian attempts to reassert its authority over Ukraine.

The full-scale invasion has changed all that. Since February 2022, international perceptions of the relationship between Russia and Ukraine have undergone a radical transformation as global audiences have witnessed the ferocity of the Russian attack and the determination of Ukraine’s national defense. The war unleashed by Vladimir Putin has killed hundreds of thousands and shattered millions of lives; it has also finally buried the Kremlin myth of Russians and Ukrainians as “one people.” As the invasion approaches the three-year mark, it is now safe to say that anyone who continues to insist on the indivisibility of Russia and Ukraine is either acting in bad faith, or is so stunningly ignorant that their opinion can be disregarded.

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2. Ukraine is huge

Prewar Ukraine’s low international profile encouraged many to imagine the country as an obscure and irrelevant statelet whose fate mattered little to the wider world. Meanwhile, very few people seemed to appreciate that Ukraine was in fact the largest country wholly in Europe. That is no longer the case. Throughout the past three years, the map of Ukraine has featured relentlessly in the international press. Even casual observers have grown familiar with the outline of the country, and cannot have failed to notice how large it looms over its European neighbors.

Media coverage of battlefield developments has also helped to emphasize the sheer size of Ukraine. Despite regular war reports of major offensives and record advances, the overall picture of the front lines has changed little since the first year of the war, underlining the comparative vastness of Ukraine. While Ukraine may still appear small when compared to Russia, it is a huge country by European standards. Growing awareness of this fact is helping to shape perceptions of Ukraine’s geopolitical significance.

3. Ukraine is an agricultural superpower

Prior to 2022, Ukraine was probably best known to many around the world as the site of the Chornobyl disaster. Associations with the world’s worst nuclear accident were particularly unfortunate as Ukraine is anything but a radioactive wasteland. In reality, the country’s real claim to fame is as the breadbasket of Europe. Ukraine’s fabled black soil is among the most fertile land in the entire world, making much of the country a giant garden of agrarian abundance.

Since 2022, Russia’s invasion has helped educate international audiences about Ukraine’s crucial role in global food security. Extensive media coverage of Russia’s Black Sea naval blockade has highlighted the importance of Ukrainian agricultural exports, with disruption caused by Moscow’s interference leading to famine fears in Africa and price hikes on basic foodstuffs throughout the West. Growing awareness of Ukraine’s status as an agricultural superpower has undermined Kremlin efforts to portray the ongoing invasion as a strictly local affair, and has mobilized international opposition to the war.

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4. Ukraine is an innovation hub

For decades, international perceptions of Ukraine were plagued by lazy cliches depicting the country as a terminally corrupt backwater on the vodka-soaked fringes of Eastern Europe. These deeply unflattering caricatures of Ukrainian stagnation were always misleading. They are now also hopelessly outdated. Since 2022, Ukraine has demonstrated that it is a sophisticated high tech nation capable of more than holding its own in the most technologically advanced war the world has ever seen. Ukraine’s ability to develop, deploy, and update its own domestically-produced weapons systems on an almost daily basis has done much to debunk the negative stereotypes of old and establish the country’s reputation as a leading innovation hub.

Ukrainian defense tech companies have been responsible for a string of particularly innovative battlefield solutions that have caught the eye of global defense industry giants and helped Ukraine even up the odds against the country’s far larger and wealthier enemy. For example, ground-breaking Ukrainian marine drones have turned the tide in the Battle of the Black Sea and forced Russia’s entire fleet to retreat from Crimea, while Ukrainian long-range drones routinely strike targets deep inside Russia. As a result, “Made in Ukraine” is now recognized as a stamp of quality throughout the international security sector. This image transformation is already attracting international investors and will shape Ukraine’s economic development for decades to come, with the country’s defense industry and broader tech sector set to be in high demand.

5. Ukraine is united

The full-scale invasion has seriously undermined longstanding Russian efforts to portray Ukraine as a country irrevocably split along geographical and ideological lines. The narrative of a divided Ukraine has been a mainstay of Kremlin propaganda since the Soviet era, and has been central to the disinformation that has accompanied the escalating Russian aggression of the past two decades. For many years, this crude oversimplification of Ukraine’s regional complexities proved superficially persuasive among international audiences, but it has been decisively debunked by Ukraine’s united response to Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Ukrainians across the country have overwhelmingly rallied in opposition to the invading Russians, with residents in supposedly “pro-Russian” cities such as Odesa and Kharkiv proving no less determined to defend themselves and their homes. This is not to say that regional diversity is no longer a feature in today’s Ukraine, of course. On the contrary, Ukraine remains just as subject to regional differences as any other large European nation. However, the Russian invasion has shattered the myth of a terminally divided Ukraine and proved beyond any reasonable doubt that the vast majority of Ukrainians bitterly oppose the idea of a Russian reunion.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Meanwhile, a long-range version of Ukraine’s domestically produced Neptune cruise missile is expected to become operational in the near future. The Neptune is currently best known as the weapon used to sink the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva, during the initial months of the Russian invasion in spring 2022.

In addition to these developments, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry recently announced plans to deliver more than 30,000 long-range attack drones in 2025, with production partially financed by international partners. Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine has conducted an extensive air offensive against Russia’s energy industry and military infrastructure using long-range drones. With domestic output now reaching record levels, the coming year is likely to witness a sharp escalation in Ukrainian attacks.

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Ukraine’s efforts to expand the domestic production of long-range weapons reflect widespread frustration in Kyiv over restrictions imposed by the country’s Western partners on attacks inside Russia. For almost the entire war, Western leaders have prevented Ukraine from striking back against Russian targets due to concerns over possible retaliatory measures from the Kremlin. This has allowed Russia to launch attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure with impunity, while forcing Ukraine to effectively defend itself with one arm tied behind its back.

The United States and other partners recently relaxed these restrictions and authorized some categories of Ukrainian strikes inside Russia using Western weapons. However, a number of constraints are believed to remain in place. The missiles provided to Ukraine by the country’s Western allies also have a relatively modest maximum range of up to 300 kilometers, making them of limited use against a country as vast as Russia.

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Many in Kyiv believe an expanded long-range arsenal is essential in order to secure a viable peace with Russia. Advocates of increased long-range strikes argue that unless Ukraine is able to bring Putin’s invasion home to Russia, the Kremlin dictator will have little reason to seek a settlement. They believe that missile attacks can weaken Russia’s military potential while also starving Putin’s war machine of funding by targeting oil refineries and other elements of the country’s economically crucial but highly vulnerable energy industry.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly stressed the importance of being able to strike targets deep inside Russia, and has frequently pressed Ukraine’s allies to supply more long-range weapons. His recently presented victory plan reportedly contained one confidential segment proposing the delivery of US-made Tomahawk missiles with a range of almost 2,500 kilometers as part of a “non-nuclear deterrence package.” While this request was widely dismissed as unrealistic, it underlined the importance attached to long-range strike capabilities among officials in Kyiv as Ukrainian policymakers search for the tools to secure a lasting peace.

Recent increases in the production of long-range drones and missiles come as Ukraine seeks to revive the country’s long-neglected defense industry and reduce reliance on military aid. Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion almost three years ago, Ukraine has managed to dramatically increase domestic output in areas ranging from armored vehicles and artillery shells to electronic warfare equipment and naval drones. Much of this is being financed by Ukraine’s partners, who are being encouraged to place orders with Ukrainian producers.

As talk turns to the possibility of a peace deal once Donald Trump returns to the White House in January 2025, Ukrainians are taking nothing for granted and are preparing for a fourth year of Europe’s largest war since World War II. They hope that by enhancing their ability to strike back inside Russia, they will be able to increase the pressure on Vladimir Putin and strengthen their own position ahead of any negotiations.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

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Guns for Hire podcast is a production of the Atlantic Council’s North Africa Initiative. Taking Libya as its starting point, it explores the causes and implications of the growing use of mercenaries in armed conflict.

The podcast features guests from many walks of life, from ethicists and historians to former mercenary fighters. It seeks to understand what the normalization of contract warfare tells us about the world we currently live in, the future of the international system, and what war could look like in the coming decades.

How NATO learns and adapts to modern warfare

General Chris Badia — Tue, 03 Dec 2024 14:00:00 +0000

Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have had strategic consequences far beyond the region, showcasing the complexities of modern conflicts, where conventional battles are intertwined with cyber warfare, information operations, and hybrid tactics.

No doubt, Russia’s actions have reshaped the global geopolitical landscape. Yet NATO’s capability to adapt has been central and the basis for its sustained relevance and success as an alliance since its founding in 1949. And now, seventy-five years later, NATO continues to lead in learning and evolving to address emerging challenges in the future operating environment.

As with past conflicts and Russia’s evolving war against Ukraine, NATO’s mechanisms for lessons learned and transformation serve as a critical means to adapt and prepare the Alliance to counter every aggression in the future.

But how does NATO, with thirty-two member nations, learn lessons? While NATO’s internal learning process is informed by its members and their own experiences, the situation in Ukraine now demands the ability to learn lessons from others’ experiences. In short, this external learning process is achieved by Alliance-wide lessons sharing and collecting through a dedicated NATO lessons-learned portal. These national observations and experiences are collected, evaluated, consolidated, and then transformed into actions to be applied in NATO’s activities to transform, adapt, and prepare for the future.

The organization’s military learning and adaptation process is strategically led by Allied Command Transformation (ACT) in the United States in Norfolk, Virginia, with a dedicated subordinate command as the Alliance’s center for enabling and supporting the NATO lessons-learned policy and capability: the Joint Analysis and Lessons Learned Centre (JALLC) in Lisbon, Portugal. By systematically collecting reports from open sources, partners, and allies, and sharing them in the NATO lessons-learned portal, all member nations can benefit. A dedicated analysis team gleans insights from the vast amount of data to enhance NATO’s understanding of Russia’s war against Ukraine, and thus, where applicable, inform and influence the development of new strategies, doctrines, and training programs. Recently, JALLC is also benefiting from inputs delivered by a Ukrainian nongovernmental organization focused on analysis and training.

NATO’s decision to establish the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis Training and Evaluation Centre (JATEC) will soon play another crucial role in ensuring that NATO remains informed, agile, adaptable, and effective in addressing contemporary and future security challenges. JATEC thus represents a significant commitment by allies not only to improve the interoperability and effectiveness of Ukrainian forces but also to enhance the Alliance’s capability by learning and applying lessons.

The lessons-learned process is also supported by various national NATO-accredited Centres of Excellence (COE). These COEs, under the coordinating authority of ACT, specialize in various military areas of expertise, such as cyber defense, command and control, air power, medical support, etc.

Altogether, ACT with the JALLC in its overarching role, the contributions by the nations, and the NATO-accredited COEs with their specializations, create a comprehensive system for ensuring lessons are captured and disseminated to operational forces, fostering a culture of continuous improvement within NATO.

The basis of a successful alliance is a common understanding and principles, which are laid out in doctrines. Therefore, doctrine development is a critical component of NATO’s adaptation and transformation process. By continuously updating doctrine based on real-world experiences and lessons learned, NATO ensures that its operational principles remain robust and effective in the face of evolving threats. With regard to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Russia’s use of hybrid warfare tactics, which combine conventional military force with irregular tactics, and cyber and information operations, has prompted improvements in NATO doctrine governing how NATO shares intelligence and counters disinformation campaigns to strengthen NATO’s response toward hybrid warfare tactics.

Furthermore, lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine underscore the importance of agile, integrated command and control systems capable of coordinating operations across multiple domains: land, sea, air, cyber, and space. NATO needs command and control structures that are flexible, resilient, and capable of rapid decision-making. Advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning are being leveraged to enhance shared situational awareness and streamline decision-making processes to maintain an advantage.

Lessons learned will be injected into NATO exercises and training to generate high-fidelity training scenarios allowing NATO forces to “train as they fight.” Besides improving interoperability, certifying NATO forces, and demonstrating NATO’s fighting credibility, NATO exercises also challenge training audiences to face operational dilemmas that reflect the complexities of modern warfare. JALLC reports summarizing lessons from the war in Ukraine are being used by the Joint Force Training Centre (JFTC) and Joint Warfare Centre (JWC) to update and improve NATO exercises. The increased use of drones, private-sector support for military operations, the battle for both cognitive and information superiority, sustainment, and civilian resilience are key features, which have already informed changes in NATO exercises to ensure that NATO forces are better prepared to operate in complex and dynamic environments.

ACT, as the strategic warfare development headquarters, also looks into the future. Studies focus on widely debated topics including, for example, the future operating environment and the future force structure. Other topics include the future of tanks and attack helicopters, small-drone warfare, vulnerabilities of fleets and ports to maritime drones, and the protection of critical infrastructures against long-range strikes.

NATO’s commitment and ability to continuously develop and improve ensures the Alliance’s enduring strength and cohesion. NATO is rapidly incorporating battlefield lessons into the transformation, adaptation, and preparation activities of the Alliance’s forces. ACT is key to this process, ensuring lessons reach operational forces at the speed of relevance.

General Chris Badia is NATO’s Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Transformation.

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Putin is creating the conditions for Russian victory in Ukraine

Mykola Bielieskov — Tue, 29 Oct 2024 18:50:01 +0000

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is often depicted in the Western media as a bloody stalemate with neither side able to achieve a decisive military breakthrough. While this has been the case for much of the war, there are growing indications that Russia may now be creating the conditions for victory in Ukraine.

For more than a year, Russia has held the battlefield initiative in southern and eastern Ukraine. While Moscow’s territorial gains have been relatively minor, the advances achieved by Putin’s army since late 2023 stand in stark contrast to the virtually static front lines of the previous year. Indeed, according to Germany’s Die Welt, Russian territorial gains during October 2024 were the largest since March 2022.

Russia’s offensive operations have focused on the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with Putin’s troops capturing a number of towns so far this year such as Avdiivka and Vuhledar as they advance toward Pokrovsk. If this trend continues during the coming months, Russia could be poised to complete the conquest of the Donbas during the 2025 campaigning season.

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The success of Russia’s Donbas campaign owes much to Moscow’s traditional advantages in munitions and manpower, along with an apparent disregard for losses. Russia’s offensive has also benefitted from a number of tactical adaptations including the extremely effective use of glide bombs against Ukrainian defensive positions.

Over the past year, Russian commanders have been able to exploit a growing number of Ukrainian battlefield vulnerabilities. These Ukrainian weaknesses have included ineffective front-line fortifications, persistent troop shortages due to the mismanagement of Ukraine’s mobilization efforts, and extended delays in the delivery of military aid from the United States and Kyiv’s other Western partners.

Ukraine’s military setbacks have forced them to return to the tactics favored during much of the initial fighting in early 2022, which involved trading space for maximum enemy losses. This approach allows the Ukrainian military to impose heavy costs on the advancing Russians, but it also means abandoning any attempts to liberate occupied Ukrainian territories, for the time being at least.

While Russia’s recent offensive operations have not yet produced any decisive breakthroughs, the psychological impact of the advances achieved in recent months cannot be measured in kilometers alone. Crucially, Moscow’s localized successes in the Donbas are gradually undermining morale among the Ukrainian public. Regular reports of fresh Russian gains are also weakening the resolve of Kyiv’s Western partners and bolstering arguments against continued military support for Ukraine.

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The Russian invasion is not going entirely according to plan, of course. US, UK, and European officials have reported that September 2024 was the deadliest month of the entire war for Putin’s troops, with Russia suffering more than one thousand soldiers killed or injured every single day.

Russia has sought to address these catastrophic losses by enticing a steady stream of new recruits with ever larger bounty payments and inflated monthly salaries. The Kremlin is also scouring other branches of the Russian armed forces such as the navy and strategic rocket forces for troops who can be converted into infantry and sent to Ukraine. Most recently, Moscow has persuaded North Korea to provide thousands of additional troops.

The one thing Putin definitely does not want to do is announce another politically risky mobilization. So far, he looks to have found solutions that will allow Russia to maintain its offensive operations in Ukraine without mobilizing hundreds of thousands of Russian civilians.

As the Russian military gradually gains the upper hand in Ukraine, the Kremlin is also strengthening its position on the international stage by playing on the West’s fears of escalation. In recent months, Putin has openly intimidated Western leaders by threatening to revise Russia’s nuclear doctrine and significantly lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. This latest example of nuclear blackmail has succeeded in derailing Ukrainian efforts to end Western restrictions on deep strikes inside Russia.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is now at a critical juncture. Unless steps are taken in the coming few months to reverse today’s negative dynamics, Russia’s advantages will continue to grow until the military situation reaches the point of no return. Ukraine’s needs are well known, and include a significant increase in military aid along with the lifting of restrictions on the use of Western weapons. Above all, it is vital to maintain Ukraine’s fighting capability and impose increasing costs on the Kremlin while convincing Putin that Western support for Kyiv will not waver.

Much will depend on the outcome of the United States presidential election on November 5. Whoever wins the race for the White House, they will inherit a war in Ukraine that requires their urgent attention to prevent a Russian victory that would signal the decline of the West and transform the geopolitical landscape for decades to come.

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There is unlikely to be any shortage of potential international buyers for Ukrainian drones, which have demonstrated their effectiveness throughout the war with Russia. Meanwhile, many NATO countries are cautious about the acquisition of drones manufactured in China, while other major drone producers have a range of restrictions in place that limit foreign sales. This could create additional opportunities for Ukrainian companies.

Crucially, exporting drones to international markets might actually make it easier for Ukraine’s drone producers to deliver more drones to the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian drone production has increased so much over the past two-and-a-half years that it has now far outstripped the Ukrainian government’s procurement potential. In other words, Ukrainian drone manufacturers are capable of producing significantly more drones than the state can currently purchase.

Opening up export markets could help solve this problem. Enabling exports would allow Ukrainian drone companies to operate closer to capacity, making it possible to scale up production and reduce the cost of individual drones for all customers, including the Ukrainian state. This is a key reason why many Ukrainian producers see exports as the most sensible solution to the current challenges facing the industry.

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While the arguments in favor of lifting export restrictions appear strong, any steps to allow the sale of drones to foreign clients during wartime would be seen by many as controversial. If the Ukrainian authorities do opt to allow exports, they will need to determine which categories can be sold abroad and in what quantities. The needs of the Ukrainian military will naturally remain the number one priority. With this in mind, it may make sense to create some kind of centralized mechanism to regulate international sales in order to streamline the process and enhance transparency.

Ukraine would also have to take steps to monitor where the country’s drones end up. Any potential misuse of Ukrainian drones would likely be very high profile and could raise serious concerns among the country’s partners. Exporting drones internationally would also increase the risk of Russia acquiring and examining Ukrainian technologies.

Permitting the export of Ukrainian drones would be a complex process with a number of potential pitfalls. At the same time, Ukrainian officials and the country’s drone manufacturers currently appear to have few other options as they look to boost domestic production while faced with limited state funding.

Exports could help Ukraine’s drone industry continue to grow at a time when the country’s future hinges on staying one step ahead of Russia in the defense tech arms race. If Ukraine decides to allow drone exports, the process must be thoroughly thought out and carefully implemented in order to safeguard all-important drone deliveries to the Ukrainian military.

Marcel Plichta is a PhD candidate at the University of St Andrews and former analyst at the US Department of Defense. He has written on the use of drones in the Russian invasion of Ukraine for the Atlantic Council, the Telegraph, and the Spectator.

According to US military experts, the window between the first deployment of an improved drone design and the appearance of countermeasures is usually just over a month. Responses can range from electronic interference to copying drone designs and combat tactics. It is a lethal game of whack-a-drone that has led to the testing of, among other technologies, autonomous target acquisition and increasingly autonomous drone operations.

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International observers including opponents of the West are carefully studying how the defense tech innovations that are emerging in Ukraine will shape the future of warfare. Unsurprisingly, military cooperation among autocracies is already expanding as the Kremlin and its allies look to share knowledge and experience. For example, Iran has reportedly been providing training to Russian drone operators.

Western military planners are in turn learning from their Ukrainian partners about adapting commercially available platforms to military applications in an extremely challenging environment. Ukraine’s inventiveness and ability to establish mutually beneficial cooperation between tech startups and the state have amazed Western military experts, who are more accustomed to slow and highly bureaucratic processes.

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When it comes to learning the defense tech lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War, there is no substitute for being close to the battlefield. Observing Ukrainian drone operators at work, interacting closely with electronic warfare specialists, and participating in the deconstruction and analysis of recovered Russian drones are all vital to understanding how these technologies are evolving.

Many Western journalists and volunteers are already embedding themselves with Ukrainian units as they seek to learn more about the realities of modern warfare and the increasingly central role being played by defense tech innovations. This close proximity could be highly beneficial for military commanders and defense industry developers. However, that would require a far more comprehensive approach.

At present, Western efforts to learn from the war in Ukraine are being impeded by an extreme aversion to putting any personnel at risk. Fears over the possible consequences of injury or death to non-Ukrainian personnel in the war with Russia appear to be inhibiting Western governments and weapons manufacturers. These concerns are limiting their ability to study the remarkable developments currently taking place in Ukraine.

This is not necessarily the case elsewhere. For instance, US military personnel are currently deployed in a number of active conflict zones in the Middle East and Africa. In contrast, the movements of Western military personnel in Ukraine remain heavily restricted, even in a purely observational role.

While there is a strong case for allowing military personnel to get closer to the front lines in Ukraine, it is arguably even more important to provide weapons developers with direct access. Indeed, some smaller Western military equipment manufacturers have already sent experts to Ukraine. Mainstream manufacturers now need to overcome their reluctance and allow key staff greater access to the Ukrainian front lines.

Today’s self-imposed constraints are limiting the West’s opportunities to get a closer look at what the battlefield of the not-too-distant future will look like. This is making it harder to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to win the current war, while also preventing the development of new defense tech capabilities that can help keep Western societies safe in the coming decades.

Edward Verona is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center covering Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe.

Faced with these setbacks, Russia has reportedly moved some of its limited air defense systems away from northwestern Crimea and concentrated them close to the Crimean Bridge, which connects the occupied peninsula to Russia across the Kerch Strait. This is leaving other parts of Crimea increasingly vulnerable to attack.

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Another key aspect of Ukraine’s campaign against the Russian occupation of Crimea is the targeting of key logistics routes. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began more than a decade ago, Moscow has sought to militarize Crimea. Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the peninsula has served as a key logistical hub for Russian forces fighting in southern Ukraine.

Despite the development of additional overland rail routes connecting Russia to occupied regions of mainland Ukraine, Crimea continues to play an important logistical role in the war. In a bid to weaken the Russian army’s supply chains and isolate Crimea, Ukraine has targeted the ferries used to transport military supplies across the Kerch Strait from Russia to Crimea.

In spring and summer 2024, Ukraine carried out a series of strikes on ferries in Crimea itself and in Russia’s neighboring Krasnodar region. These attacks succeeded in cutting key supply routes for the Russian military, forcing Moscow to explore improvised alternatives such as the use of barges.

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Ukraine’s efforts to isolate Crimea have benefited from the use of Western weapons including US-supplied ATACMS missiles and cruise missiles provided by Kyiv’s British and French partners. Crimea is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine, so restrictions that prevent the use of Western weapons inside Russia do not apply. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated in July 2024 that some limitations remain on Ukraine’s ability to use Western-supplied arms in Crimea. “I will tell you honestly, we cannot use everything and everywhere in Crimea,” he commented.

Ukrainian attacks on Crimea are a huge source of embarrassment for Russia. The 2014 occupation of the Ukrainian peninsula is routinely portrayed in Kremlin propaganda as the greatest achievement of Vladimir Putin’s entire reign and a symbol of Russia’s return to great power status. Putin’s current inability to defend Crimea is therefore widely perceived as a personal humiliation.

For the time being, Moscow remains in denial over the deteriorating security situation in Crimea and continues to promote the peninsula as a safe holiday destination. However, if the current Ukrainian campaign continues to gain momentum, the Kremlin will be forced to abandon this business-as-usual approach and acknowledge that the Russian occupation of Crimea is under threat.

Russia’s war against Ukraine began in 2014 with the seizure of Crimea. Many analysts believe the war can only be brought to an end by liberating the peninsula from Russian control. It is still far too early to speak about the impending end of the Russian occupation. Nevertheless, with the Black Sea Fleet in retreat, logistical connections disrupted, and air defenses depleted, the Kremlin’s grip on Crimea already appears to be significantly weaker than it was when the full-scale invasion began two and half years ago.

Serhii Kuzan is Chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center (USCC). He formerly served as an adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (2022-2023) and as an advisor to the Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (2014).

Officials in Kyiv regard the current restrictions on attacks inside Russia as politically unjustified and militarily absurd. They argue that by preventing Ukraine from striking back, Western leaders are effectively protecting Putin’s war machine while forcing the Ukrainian military to fight with one hand tied behind its back.

With little indication that Ukraine’s major allies are ready to change tack and allow the use of Western-supplied missiles inside Russia, it may be time to explore other options. The most obvious solution would be to enhance Ukraine’s ability to launch attacks inside Russia using its own domestically-produced long-range weapons.

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Ukraine’s rapidly advancing domestic drone program already has considerable long-range capabilities, but requires extensive investment and technological cooperation in order to reach its full potential. Ukraine has also recently confirmed the successful testing of its first domestically-produced ballistic missile. With sufficient Western support, this expanding Ukrainian arsenal of long-range weapons could have a major impact on the future course of the war.

Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine has been conducting an increasingly ambitious campaign of drone strikes against military targets and energy industry infrastructure deep inside Russia. Many of these attacks have taken place at distances more than one thousand kilometers from the Ukrainian border and have involved large numbers of drones that have succeeded in overwhelming Russia’s air defenses.

The potential of Ukraine’s long-range drones was underlined in September when a large-scale attack on a military storage facility in Russia’s Tver region produced an explosion that was large enough to be picked up by earthquake monitoring stations. According to Ukrainian sources, the blast destroyed vast quantities of Russian missiles, glide bombs, and artillery ammunition. Satellite imagery appeared to confirm that the targeted facility had been partially destroyed.

Some of Ukraine’s partners were initially reluctant to back this air offensive, with multiple US officials publicly questioning the wisdom of Kyiv’s strategy. However, these concerns appear to have eased in recent months. Western officials are now more publicly supportive of Ukraine’s right to strike back inside Russia, provided this is done using Ukrainian weapons.

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Over the past two and a half years, drones have emerged as a vital asset in Ukraine’s asymmetric warfare strategy as it fights to defend itself against a far larger and more powerful adversary. Outgunned and outnumbered by Russia, Ukraine has focused its resources on building up the country’s domestic drone industry. In the air, on land, and at sea, domestically-made drones have been instrumental in many of Ukraine’s most important military successes.

Ukrainian drone output has dramatically increased since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, with more than two hundred companies now producing millions of drones annually. The expansion of the sector has been so rapid that Ukraine is currently making more drones than the Ukrainian authorities can afford to purchase, leading to excess capacity. Unless this can be addressed, there is a danger that many Ukrainian drone companies could be forced out of business or obliged to move abroad.

Ukraine’s partners can bridge the gap between rising drone manufacturing capacity and the country’s limited state procurement budgets by placing orders directly with Ukrainian drone manufacturers themselves. Some countries including Denmark have already committed to do so. More comprehensive efforts in this direction could place Ukraine’s dynamically developing drone industry on a firmer footing and bolster the country’s ability to hit targets deep inside Russia.

In early October, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed that increased production of long-range drones and missiles will be a key goal in 2025. Ukraine’s partners should follow suit and prioritize their support for the country’s long-range air strike capabilities. By expanding investment and technical cooperation in this area, they can help Ukraine regain the initiative and force Putin to rethink his invasion, while at the same time adhering to their own cautious doctrine of escalation management. Western policymakers may still believe in Putin’s red lines, but Ukrainians do not.

David Kirichenko is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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One of the basic requirements for any investor is a transparent marketplace with clear and simple rules. Since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has adopted around twenty significant laws and resolutions aimed at accelerating the development of the domestic defense tech market.

Measures have included tax and customs duty reductions, the relaxation of permit and licensing requirements, and the minimizing of bureaucratic waiting periods. These steps have already had a significant impact on the domestic UAV industry, helping to fuel a hundred-fold increase in annual drone production in 2023. A similar approach is now being adopted toward other segments of the defense sector including electronic warfare, robotics, and ammunition production.

The Ukrainian authorities understand that international investors are primarily driven by a desire to make money. In order to attract investment, Ukrainian defense tech companies must therefore be able to demonstate a credible business plan and a pathway to profitability. To help establish the necessary conditions, we are taking steps to conclude more government procurement contracts with Ukrainian producers. For example, the Ukrainian state has signed agreements to procure more than one million domestically produced drones in 2024, compared to around three hundred thousand drones during the previous year.

Meanwhile, the number of Ukrainian companies able to compete for state contracts is steadily increasing. In 2022, only seven Ukrainian drone producers were eligible for government contracts. Today, the figure has risen to more than eighty companies. To maintain this upward trend, the Ukrainian authorities provide additional support to help domestic companies meet NATO standards.

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Placing more orders with Ukrainian producers is not enough, of course. It is also important to remain agile and concentrate Ukraine’s limited resources on the acquisition of technologies that offer the biggest practical advantages in today’s rapidly evolving military environment. For example, in September 2024, the Ukrainian government launched its first tender for the purchase of ten thousand first person view (FPV) drones equipped with machine vision guidance.

Another key challenge is connecting investors with developers. Ukraine’s defense tech sector offers potentially exciting opportunities for investors, but it is also an inherently difficult environment to navigate without local knowledge. The Ukrainian authorities have sought to address this by establishing the Brave1 cluster, which aims to streamline cooperation between investors, private sector companies, state agencies, and the Ukrainian military. At present, Brave1 is working with more than one hundred and fifty investors from over thirty countries.

Current initiatives include Investor Demo Days, where Ukrainian developers can showcase their products and attempt to attract funding. On October 3-4, Kyiv will host the largest international investment summit of the war so far dedicated to the Ukrainian defense tech industry. This event should provide an indication of the progress since 2022 toward making the country’s defense tech sector attractive to investors.

In order to win the war, Ukraine needs game-changing technologies that can help overcome Russia’s conventional military advantages and shift the battlefield situation in our favor. This cannot realistically be achieved by relying on an improvised ecosystem of defense tech startups operating out of garages and apartments. Instead, Ukraine needs the kind of powerful and well-resourced defense tech industry that is only possible through significant investment and cooperation with international partners. If this goal can be achieved, the Ukrainian military will be able to receive the tools they need to finish the job of defeating Russia.

Mykhailo Fedorov is Ukraine’s Vice Prime Minister for Innovations and Development of Education, Science, and Technologies, and Minister of Digital Transformation.

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Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.

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Ukraine’s expanding drone fleet is flying straight through Putin’s red lines

Giorgi Revishvili — Sat, 21 Sep 2024 14:34:39 +0000

Ukraine conducted one of the largest and most effective drone attacks of the entire war in the early hours of September 18, causing a blast at a weapons depot deep inside Russia that was large enough to be picked up by earthquake monitoring stations. According to Ukrainian sources, the attack involved more than one hundred domestically produced long-range Ukrainian drones and targeted a major Russian arms storage facility in Toropets, a town in Russia’s Tver region northwest of Moscow.

The Toropets raid was the latest Ukrainian success in an ambitious campaign of long-range drone strikes that has been steadily gaining momentum throughout the current year. Ukraine launched its air offensive in January 2024, and has since hit dozens of high-value targets in Russia including oil refineries, air bases, armament production facilities, and military sites.

The increasing frequency and effectiveness of these drone attacks would appear to vindicate Ukraine’s earlier decision to focus its limited resources on boosting the domestic development and production of long-range drones. Ukrainian attacks are now visibly expanding in scale as more drones are produced, and are also routinely reaching targets deep inside Russia over one thousand kilometers beyond the Ukrainian border.

In a sign of the rapidly advancing drone technologies that are now becoming available to the Ukrainian military, the country recently unveiled its first missile drone. Dubbed “Palyanytsia” in honor of a traditional Ukrainian bread that invading Russian troops find notoriously difficult to pronounce, this missile drone was welcomed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August 2024 as “our new method of retaliation against the aggressor.”

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Ukraine’s long-range drone strike campaign has a number of goals. The most immediate objective is to undermine the Russian war machine by targeting military infrastructure and the country’s economically vital energy industry.

Strikes on Russian air fields have been credited with damaging a number of military planes used in the Kremlin’s bombing campaign of Ukraine’s cities and civilian infrastructure. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials believe the recent attack in Tver region destroyed significant quantities of Russian munitions including artillery shells and missiles.

At this stage, Ukraine’s bombing raids on Russian oil refineries remain on an insufficient scale to plunge the Kremlin’s vast energy industry into crisis. However, Ukrainian drone attacks are frequently followed by media reports of decreased Russian refining capacity.

Russian officials have remained characteristically tight-lipped over the impact of Ukraine’s air offensive, but there are some indications that the Kremlin is concerned. In March 2024, Moscow imposed a six-month ban on gasoline exports that has since been extended to the end of 2024 in an apparent bid to prevent domestic shortages and price spikes. Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service has also reportedly stopped publishing oil production data.

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Kyiv’s drone strike strategy also has important political objectives. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s partners have imposed restrictions on the use of Western-supplied weapons inside Russia. This includes a ban on long-range missile strikes that is seen as particularly damaging by officials in Kyiv, who argue that it prevents them from targeting the air bases and military sites used by Russia to attack Ukraine.

The caution on display in Western capitals reflects widespread concerns among Ukraine’s partners over a possible escalation in the current war. Moscow has skillfully exploited these fears, using a combination of nuclear threats and talk of Russian red lines to scare Western leaders and ensure that current restrictions remain in place. Indeed, Putin recently warned that allowing long-range strikes against Russian targets would mean that NATO was “at war” with Russia.

By hitting targets deep inside Russia, Ukraine hopes to convince its allies that their fears of escalation are greatly exaggerated and expose Putin’s red lines as a bluff designed to intimidate the West. This argument is supported by numerous other examples of Russian red lines being crossed without consequence, such as the partial destruction of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and Ukraine’s recent invasion of Russia’s Kursk region.

While there has yet to be any breakthrough in Kyiv’s diplomatic push for an end to restrictions on long-range missile attacks, recent reports suggest that it may now be only a matter of time before Ukraine receives the green light for a least some categories of long-range strikes inside Russia. If permission is finally granted, this would dramatically increase the potential impact of Ukraine’s air offensive and create significant logistical headaches for the Russian military.

Russian commanders are currently struggling to provide sufficient air defense coverage to counter the existing threat posed by Ukraine’s increasingly sophisticated drone fleet. With the bulk of Russia’s available air defense systems currently deployed in Ukraine, the Kremlin lacks the additional resources to protect the country’s vast airspace. If Ukraine continues to expand drone production and also secures permission for strikes inside Russia with Western weapons, these air defense shortages will likely become even more apparent.

Ukraine’s drone campaign is already bringing the war home to the Russian public and undermining the Putin regime’s efforts to shield domestic audiences from the negative consequences of the invasion. While the Kremlin maintains tight control over the Russian information space and can easily suppress negative news coming from Ukraine, it is much more challenging to disguise regular air raid alarms and exploding military depots in towns and cities across western Russia.

Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign has been one of the key developments of the war in 2024. It has provided Kyiv with a partial solution to its own lack of domestically-produced missiles, and has helped Ukrainian commanders address the challenges created by the risk-averse West’s fear of escalation. Ukrainians are now hoping that by flying their long-range drones straight through Vladimir Putin’s red lines, they can convince Western leaders to abandon the failed doctrine of escalation management and lift restrictions that protect Russia while preventing Ukraine from defending itself.

Giorgi Revishvili is a political analyst and a former senior advisor to the Georgian National Security Council.

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